Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

The role of biomass and CCS in China in aclimate mitigation perspectiveMikael Lüthje, Kenneth Karlsson, Jay Gregg, Tullik Helene Ystanes Føyn, and OlexandrBalyk. All authors are affiliated with Risø DTU, Denmark.AbstractAs the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), China plays a central rolein the suite of options for climate change mitigation. To analyze the importance ofbiomass and carbon capture and storage (CCS) availability in China, varying levels ofthese parameters are created and then global climate scenarios are simulated using TIAM(TIMES Integrated Assessment Model). TIAM is a 16-region global energy systemoptimization model that includes a climate module that calculates the globalconcentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere.We analyze the potential for using biomass, CCS, and bioenergy CCS (BECCS) in Chinaunder the constraint of meeting a climate stabilization target such that dangerous climatechange (as defined by the Copenhagen Accord) is avoided. When consideringhypothetical scenarios where GHG emissions are constrained, China consumes allavailable domestic biomass as a relatively inexpensive fuel source. However, whileBECCS does have a small role to play, in general it is cheaper to use biomass for thetransportation sector and CCS with fossil fuel in order to meet both the energy demandand emissions reduction goals in the cheapest way possible.Therefore, we find that while both utilization of biomass and CCS are essential optionsfor reducing emissions in China, BECCS is not the most cost effective option in China.CCS is nevertheless an important option for China; in the climate mitigation scenariosmodeled, by 2050, China is projected to employ CCS on at least 70% of fossil energyelectricity generation. When CCS is excluded, the cost of mitigation is more thandoubled compared to the scenarios where CCS is included as a mitigation option.1. IntroductionReducing the risk of dangerous climate change, defined as an increase in the global meantemperature of 2°C (with the CO 2 concentration not exceeding 443 ppm), will require anambitious effort to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Participation fromChina is crucially important if we are to achieve this goal. First, China accounts for asubstantial share of the world’s population, economy, and GHG emissions: China has theworld’s largest population and the second largest economy, and has recently become theworld leader in GHG emissions (Gregg et al., 2008). Second, China’s Gross DomesticProduct (GDP), energy consumption and GHG emissions are expected to continue toincrease rapidly in the coming years (Blanford et al. 2008), and this rapid growth inemissions could offset mitigation efforts in other parts of the world, e.g. Annex-I(industrialized) countries (Blanford et al. 2008). Third, because of the speed with whichChina’s energy demand is growing, the country is facing a large challenge in expandingsupply rapidly enough. Domestic coal is currently the most used and most readilyavailable energy supply source (BP, 2010 and International Energy Agency, 2008), but itis a carbon-intensive fuel. Therefore, aligning the security of supply requirements withenvironmental and climate change objectives is a great challenge for China (Zeng et al.2008). Finally, global mitigation costs increase significantly when action is delayed innon-Annex I countries, including China (Clarke et al. 2009). Current Chinese efforts tocombat climate change will therefore be of high importance; avoiding dangerous levels1Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 258