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Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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Smart pathways <strong>for</strong> providing electricity in developing countriesBrijesh Mainali 1 <strong>and</strong> Semida Silveira<strong>Energy</strong> <strong>and</strong> Climate StudiesRoyal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Swedenbrijesh.mainali@energy.kth.se; semida.silveira@energy.kth.seAbstractA key objective in <strong>the</strong> energy agenda of many developing nations is to increase <strong>the</strong>electricity access rate. Often, <strong>the</strong> discussion on electrification in developing countriestends to oscillate between <strong>the</strong> merits of centralized electrification versus decentralizedoff- grid electrification <strong>and</strong> both <strong>the</strong> options are often promoted in parallel. However, <strong>the</strong>basis <strong>for</strong> choosing pathways in electrification is not often clear or rational. The role ofelectricity is beyond household lighting <strong>and</strong> thus <strong>the</strong> electrification options need to beanalyzed based on <strong>the</strong>ir capability to meet <strong>the</strong> dem<strong>and</strong> <strong>for</strong> commercial <strong>and</strong> industrialusage. But it is equally important to address <strong>the</strong> electricity need of <strong>the</strong> rural poor whohave limited uses of electricity. In <strong>the</strong> context of scarce resources, least cost optionsshould be searched <strong>for</strong> looking at what <strong>the</strong> technology can offer <strong>and</strong> what <strong>the</strong> real need is.This study analyses scenario <strong>for</strong> rural electrification using (i) off-grid isolated renewableenergy (RE) technologies viz. solar home systems <strong>and</strong> wind home systems (ii) mini gridswith micro hydro <strong>and</strong> (iii) considering <strong>the</strong> case when <strong>the</strong> national grid connectionreaches an area previously supplied with off-grid technologies. The comparative analysishas also been made with <strong>the</strong> different scenarios with <strong>the</strong> extension of grid line <strong>and</strong> supplywith <strong>the</strong> conventional fossil based technology. We have also analyzed different scenariosconsidering various technical <strong>and</strong> socio-economic parameters in two country casesAfghanistan <strong>and</strong> Nepal. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been taken as <strong>the</strong> mainbasis to compare various options. Analysis has shown that <strong>the</strong> micro hydro technology is<strong>the</strong> most competitive technologies in both <strong>the</strong> country cases (Afghanistan <strong>and</strong> Nepal)compared to individual solar home system <strong>and</strong> wind home system. In Nepal, <strong>the</strong> chosenpathway <strong>for</strong> off-grid electrification with <strong>the</strong> technology choices of micro hydro <strong>and</strong> solarPV seems relevant. In Afghanistan, <strong>the</strong> uses of diesel generator are not <strong>the</strong> least costoption. Thus, Afghanistan needs to prioritize <strong>the</strong> micro hydro sector to drive ruralelectrification in <strong>the</strong> smart pathways.Key Word: Levelized cost, off-grid, mini grid, grid connection, smart pathways1Corresponding AuthorRisø International <strong>Energy</strong> Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 357

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