Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

More generally, a number of no- or low-regret energy planning and policy options exist.For Africa, for example, a number of options will both promote energy access andreduce the vulnerability of energy systems to climate impacts. Examples includeintroducing and refining early warning systems, mobilizing energy investments,diversifying energy generation asset types, creating enabling environments for transferand introduction of new technologies and regulating commercial and industrial energyefficiency implementation (Helio International, 2009).Economic assessments of potential impacts and available adaptation options are crucialin the prioritisation and selection of adaptive measures. The availability of estimates ofeconomic impacts at energy system level; the economic value of climate changedamages at sector and project levels; and, of the benefits and costs of policies, measuresand actions to avoid climate change damages through adaptation is low. The World BankEconomics of Adaptation to Climate Change initiative (World Bank, 2010b) is currentlythe only source of global and regional estimates on adaptation costs related to powergeneration (for all energy sources) and electricity transmission and distributioninfrastructure. Some figures on the climate-related impacts of droughts on hydropowerproduction and GDP for selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are available(Eberhard et al., 2008). ECA (2009) includes a case study and cost curve for poweradaptation measures in Tanzania, and de Bruin et al. (2009) provide some estimates ofcosts and benefits of energy related adaptation options for the Netherlands. Apart fromthese examples and from the literature on changes in energy expenditures for cooling andheating as a result of climate change that mainly covers North America and OECDcountries8, no comprehensive assessments of costs and benefits of climate changeimpacts on energy systems or of adaptive responses to alleviate these impacts have beenundertaken so far.5 Opportunities and Challenges – PreliminaryConclusionsClimate risk management requires an interdisciplinary effort and participatory approachwhere the tools and knowledge of scientists, energy analysts, and economists, policymakers and planners, and citizens are combined. So far, key efforts have focused onassessing climate impacts and risks on particularly renewable energy sources and supplyand on identifying potential adaptation options. In most cases, these two areas of efforthave been undertaken by different communities, with scientists focusing on analysingclimate impacts on energy system components and social scientists identifying anddiscussing potential adaptation measures. Connecting the information on risks andimpacts to detailed identification and appraisal of adaptation options provides animmediate opportunity for advancing climate risk management of energy projects,sectors, and systems.Currently, gaps in knowledge pose significant constraints for climate change riskanalyses and decision making. Based on the previous sections, opportunities forexpanding the scientific and socio-economic knowledge basis for decision makingabound in the following areas:a. The capacity to model and project climate change and its impacts at the localand regional scales can be expanded and target better knowledge on gradualchanges at regional and local scales as well as changes in variability andfrequency and magnitude of extreme events.b. Providing information and guidance in a form appropriate for planners anddecision makers at various levels: Climate risks are only one of many factorsthat may influence a decision. Consequently, there is a need for raising8 See IPCC (2007c), Chapter 17.2 for an overview.Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 33