Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

accounted for a 13 percent variation in energy productivity in developing countries in2005 (World Bank, 2010a). With projected climate change, both energy sector risks andvulnerabilities will be exacerbated, underlining the need for adaptation.In this paper, the current knowledge base for integrating energy adaptation in planningand decision-making is explored with the aim of identifying key challenges andopportunities for increasing the climate resilience of energy systems through integratedclimate risk management.Much is at stake if energy projects, planning, and policies continue to disregard the risksimposed by climate change. Investment decisions that do not take climate changeimplications into account, may lead to inefficient resource use and mal-adaptation1,which may ultimately affect the potential for achieving main energy development andsecurity goals. Furthermore, synergies and trade-offs with other sectors and key climatechange mitigation issues may be overlooked. Important potential trade-offs with othersectors include competing uses of water and land, where current stresses are likely to beexacerbated by climate change. A significant increase in the share of renewable energysources is a central component of all emission reduction strategies. Mitigation policiesneed to take the effects of unavoidable climate change on energy resource endowmentsand supply into account – in other words, they need to be ‘climate proofed’.The paper begins by outlining how climate risk management can be used as a frameworkto guide energy adaptation actions and decision making processes in section 2. Section 3,summarises the current knowledge on key potential climate impacts and vulnerabilitiesof energy systems, followed by an overview of adaptation options in section 4. In thefinal section, key opportunities and challenges for increasing the climate resilience ofenergy systems through integrated climate risk management are put forward.2 Climate Risk ManagementAdaptation planning and decision-making takes place under significant risk anduncertainty2. An inherent risk of adaptation decisions is that in retrospect they may turnout to have been mistaken or sub-optimal. An important aspect of climate adaptationdecision making under risk and uncertainty is therefore to be aware of, and specificabout, the potential consequences of erroneous decisions.Climate risk management provides a framework to guide adaptation decisions anddecision-making processes, where the most important risk factors are identified and theuncertainty associated with each is described (Willows and Connell, 2003). Climate riskassessment and management can be undertaken at all relevant levels. This means that itcan be used as an integrated framework to guide decisions and actions as well as aframework to guide specific project or sectoral decisions and actions. The mainadvantage of an integrated assessment, as opposed to project or sector-specific analysis,is that it allows the indirect impacts of adopting a set of adaptation measures to beexamined.Risk assessment and management are already important aspects of planning and decisionmaking in the energy sector as well as in other key sectors including water, agriculture,1 Mal-adaptation is generally understood as actions taken that (unintentionally) constrain the optionsavailable to or ability of other decision makers now or in the future to manage the impacts ofclimate change, thereby resulting in an increase in exposure and/or vulnerability to climate change.2 Risk is the product of the likelihood of an event and its consequences IPCC (2007, p.64). Uncertaintyarises when there is a lack of knowledge concerning outcomes. Uncertainty may result from anincomplete knowledge of the risk (probability or consequences). However, even when there isknowledge regarding the risk, there is still uncertainty because outcomes are determinedprobabilistically. See also Ebinger and Vergara (2011).Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 26