Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

China, has prompted all parties, including China, to begin thinking hard about security ofrare earth supply. As the rare earth supply is a Chinese natural resource, it is China’spriority to manage it very carefully and make the most of it. China’s export quota forrare earths has indeed dropped in recent years, including a 35% decrease for the first halfof 2011 compared to the first half of 2010 [11].There are plans for worldwide rare earth production to increase significantly in the nearfuture. The USA is targeting 2012 to restart production at the Mountain Pass mine,TABLE IIRARE EARTH MINING PRODUCTION AND ESTIMATED RESERVES BY COUNTRY.COUNTRY Production in 2010 Reserves in 2011United States 0 13,000,000Australia 0 1,600,000Brazil 550 48,000China 130,000 55,000,000Commonwealth of Independent States* Not available 19,000,000India 2,700 3,100,000Malaysia 350 30,000Other countries Not available 22,000,000The values are in metric tons of rare-earth oxide (REO) [14].which is rich in light REE such as neodymium [10], [6]. The Mt. Weld mine in Australiais poised to begin production even sooner (2011) [6], and here the ore is estimated to berich in neodymium [12]. Although the overwhelming majority of rare earth mineproduction in 2010 took place in China, the estimated rare earth reserves are in fact muchmore evenly distributed [13] as seen in Table II.In the short term, the neodymium supply is a significant issue. There is a possibility thatChina may soon consume almost all of its annual neodymium production [6]. It’s highlylikely that during this time additional sources will come on line. Mountain Pass and Mt.Weld, which are very far into the process of beginning production, are especiallypromising. But, it’s an undesirable risk to have a supply chain be dependent on thetimely success of any operation with the logistic issues such as those of starting (orrestarting) a mine.In the long term, the supply of dysprosium may be insufficient, worldwide. This is to saythat China has expressed concerns that their own domestic supply of dysprosium hasbetween 5-25 years left with current levels of use [14], and China is the only countrywith history and experience with the mining of these metals. It will therefore be an issueof great importance in the next decade and beyond, to see which mining projects outsideof China find significant dysprosium reserves. Furthermore it also must be seen whichcountries will develop the manufacturing capacity to process them.2.2 Relevance to Wind PowerMost of China’s national goals are stated and implemented in the framework of their ‘5-Year Outlines.’ A goal of China’s next two 5-Year plans will be to dramatically increasetheir wind power capacity. The intention has been stated to do so with heavy usage ofwind turbines with permanent magnet generators [14].While knowing the risks associated with the market for rare earth materials,manufacturers have two options. One is to move forward with the current trend towardspermanent magnet machines. This in effect means procuring permanent magnets fromChinese manufacturers, or moving in-house permanent magnet manufacturing operationsto China. China not only is the only significant source of the required materials, buttoday it is also the only location with the infrastructure to process the materials and toRisø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 230