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Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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Moreover, this model is <strong>for</strong>mulated more flexibly such that a sequence of less-than fullhorizon may be solved. This is illustrated in Figure 3, where each Balbase4 modelconsists of four years within <strong>the</strong> full horizon. The spacing between <strong>the</strong> years within aBalbase4 model is <strong>the</strong> same as in any o<strong>the</strong>r Balbase4 model, in <strong>the</strong> example twoconsecutive years (from years within <strong>the</strong> full horizon) are followed by a slip of one year<strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> a slip of two years. The number of years <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> slips between <strong>the</strong> years are userdefined. This way a quite flexible rolling horizon approach is available.Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2018 2020 2025 2030HorizonModel 1Model 2Model 3Figure 3: Approach Balbase4 sequentially solves Balbase4 models, each consisting of asubset of all years in <strong>the</strong> full horizon, with updating between solves.Thus, in particular Balbase4 may reproduce <strong>the</strong> approach of Balbase2 which wasillustrated in Figure 1.The investment <strong>and</strong> operations costs are basically taken into account as in modelBalbase2. The distinguishing feature is that costs <strong>for</strong> all <strong>the</strong> years within a model areincluded. Thus, <strong>for</strong> example <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> second model in Figure 3 (years 2012, 2013, 2016<strong>and</strong> 2025) annual costs corresponding to that of model Balbase2 are included as followsdepending on <strong>the</strong> year of investment in that model, 2012: four times <strong>the</strong> annual costs plus <strong>the</strong> four years’ operation costs 2013: three times <strong>the</strong> annual costs plus <strong>the</strong> tree years’ operation costs 2016: two times <strong>the</strong> annual costs plus <strong>the</strong> two years’ operation costs 2025: one time <strong>the</strong> annual costs plus <strong>the</strong> year’s operation costsThe o<strong>the</strong>r side of <strong>the</strong> coin is that investments made in year 2012 will have <strong>the</strong> incomefrom four years of operations to balance <strong>the</strong> four years of annual costs, etc. <strong>for</strong>investments <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r years. Overall, <strong>the</strong> objective function in <strong>the</strong> Balbase4 model is tomaximize social welfare over <strong>the</strong> years included in <strong>the</strong> model.4 Some observation on <strong>the</strong> two approachesHere some general observations with respect to calculation time <strong>and</strong> prices will bereported.4.1 Calculation timeUsually model Balbase4 is larger than Balbase2, because it includes several years. On<strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r h<strong>and</strong> model Balbase4 may be solved less times. In most application,supposedly, if model Balbase4 includes X times larger than model Balbase2, <strong>the</strong>n modelBalbase2 will be solved approximately X times more often than model Balbase4.A common experience from solution of LP (Linear Programming) models is that <strong>the</strong>solution time is approximately linear in <strong>the</strong> size of <strong>the</strong> problem. If this holds true alsohere, this would mean that total calculation time would be approximately <strong>the</strong> same <strong>for</strong>models Balbase2 <strong>and</strong> Balbase4. If a constant overhead per solve (model generation,communication between GAMS <strong>and</strong> solver, output h<strong>and</strong>ling) is appreciable, this maytend to favor model Balbase4 in relation to calculation time.Only if <strong>the</strong> generated model is large compared to available computer memory <strong>and</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rresources approach Balbase2 (or a sequence of small Balbase4 models in a rollinghorizon approach) <strong>the</strong>re<strong>for</strong>e may be preferable to approach Balbase4 with respect tocomputation time.Risø International <strong>Energy</strong> Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 154

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