Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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Randomly, continuous up to ±50%Acceleration Randomly, continuous up to ±25%ServiceLocal air pollutionNo service agreement.Service to cover the servicing and maintenance, andrepairs not covered by warranty, is included in theannual operating costs. Including free rental car.Like gasoline carLike diesel car50% of gasoline car (hybrid)No local emissions (electric or Hydrogen)Green house gas (CO2)Conventional car50% of conventional (hybrid)No CO2 emissions, Pure renewable energyIn order to identify protest bids the questionnaire used the following follow up-questionsto respondents who replied identically in all four games:You have chosen XX in all four games. Please indicate the reason for this choice below:• I believe XX were the most profitable in all four games.• I do not think that XX is sufficiently reliable.• I believe XX was too expensive.• I do not think XX is safe enough.• I did not know what to choose.• As I think XX is more environmentally friendly, other characteristics are lessimportant.2.2 SPThe sampling of alternatives is based on a random uniform probability. This maynot be the most efficient design. However, since we ask a large number ofrespondents thuis is no problem parameter estimates will be estimated with largeprecision ans significance anyway. Furthermore, using this approach we will beable to analyse all parameters and interaction effect.Each choice exercise includes three generic monetary attributes, which arecustomized to each respondent individually. Monetary attributes constitute themost important consideration of households willing to purchase a vehicle. Thisexperiment summarizes the monetary costs under three attributes: the purchaseprice, the annual fuel and maintenance cost. The annual fuel cost is computed asthe product between the number of kilometres the vehicle would be driven peryear, as specified by the respondent earlier in the survey, and the average fuelcost per kilometre, which is calculated based on the vehicle just purchased by therespondent.Page 3 of 12Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 324
Environmental characteristics are not varied across each technology since it is assumedthat it would not be meaningful for the respondent to bring in more detailed differenceson top of the five different technologies.2.3 Data collectionThe data collection is based on an online internet based questionnaire.Respondents were recruited by means of an invitation letter sent out by StatisticsDenmark to respondents who have purchased a new car in the previous month.Each month Statistics Denmark sends out invitation letters to approx 1500respondents2.4 EstimationThe standard estimation of the stated preference (SP) data can be described as follows:We assume that consumers choose alternatives with highest utility. The utility consists ofa systematic part related to the characteristics plus an unobserved part ε.UiV i iThe systematic part may be written asV i 0 1X1 2X2 3X3Assuming utility maximisation and independence of irrelevant alternatives, we canassume to have a logit density function.In this case, we can estimate the n'th respondent's probability for an alternative 'i' inquestion t, by the following formula:Pnit( ) nexp( nxnit)exp( x )jnnjtThe above simple fixed effect logit model has been applied in the initial estimations.Final estimations have been based on a more advanced logit model allowing forunobserved heterogeneity and panel specification.The probability of the observed sequence of choices conditional of knowing β n is givenby:Sn( n) Lni( n,t)t( n)tWhere i(n,t) denotes the alternative chosen by individual 'n' on choice occasion t.The unconditional probability of the observed sequence of choices is the conditionalprobability integrated over the distribution of β:Pn ( ) Sn( ) f ( `| ) dThe unconditional probability is thus a weighted average of a product of logit formulasevaluated at different values of β, with the weights given by the density f.The mixed logit can be used to estimate a multinomial logit model with unobservedheterogeneity considered by Haan and Uhlendorff (2006).Page 4 of 12Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 325
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Energy Systems and Technologies for
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ContentsSessions overview 1Programm
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sessions overview08:00-09:00Coffee
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11:00 - 12:30 session 6A - Bioenerg
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ContactSustainable Energy, Technica
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Penetration of new energy technolog
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how decisions are made and by whom
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(9) is the logaritimic expansion of
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(16)we may finally write Eq(14) in
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Table 1: Fast track cases for new r
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Peterka V. Macrodynamics of technol
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Growth in clean and reliable energy
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Conclusion - an ambitious vision an
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"Spurring investments in renewable
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Integrating climate change adaptati
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transport, and finance. Energy prov
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northern South America, the Caribbe
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Table 1: Energy system adaptation s
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More generally, a number of no- or
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6 ReferencesADB, 2005. Climate proo
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Sailor, D.J., Smith, M., Hart, M.,
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Factors affecting stakeholder perce
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Another study conducted in Japan wa
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4 The effect of information on stak
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Furthermore, communication to stake
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Shackley S, McLachlan C, Gough C (2
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Figure 1: Potential CO 2 storage si
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The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceo
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The majority of the individual stru
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Development. Project no. ENK6-CT-19
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Section 5 summarises the key issue
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Table 1. Efficiencies for new large
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In addition, district heating syste
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6.4 Model results from EFDA-TIMESIn
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Maisonnier, D., et al. (2007), Powe
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1Efficiency and effectiveness of pr
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3Stromerzeugung [TWh/a]250200150100
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54 Country-specific Lessons learned
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7100%90%80%quota fullfilment (%)70%
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[5] Haas R., et al: Efficiency and
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The development and diffusion of re
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a. Offshore wind in DenmarkDenmark
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applicants are invited to submit a
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nies that provide upstream and down
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for both technology users and produ
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Trade Disputes over Renewable Energ
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treatment to imported renewable ene
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In Canada, the federal government i
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grid access, subsidies and land off
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In 2010, China’s total wind insta
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Source: Renewables 2010 Global Stat
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Source: REN 21, Renewables 2010 Glo
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Source: adapted from REN21, 2010It
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their precise scope and nature diff
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60 daysBy 2 nd DSBmeetingConsultati
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discriminatory manner on domestic a
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the European Union, the North Ameri
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ended. China lost this case because
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As most countries in the world are
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Session 3A - Energy SystemsRisø In
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1 IntroductionWith the introduction
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occur. This is an undesirably burea
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This curve could be used as a new t
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ut for the total consumption, and i
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This gives the LBR an opportunity t
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concludes that the subsurface conta
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to constrain the evaluation. In add
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Fig. 2 SW-NE trending seismic profi
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Fig. 5. Petrophysical evaluation of
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ConclusionsThe Danish subsurface co
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Performance of Space Heating in aMo
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[5],[10],[11],[16],[18],[20],[26].
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2/3 Sun1 Coal1/3 ElPower plantHP1 H
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25002000Surplus(min(wind,prod-cons)
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160CO 2 emission per unit heat prod
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The calculations have been based on
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Session 3B - smart gridsRisø Inter
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2 Myopic Investments2.1 The Balmore
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Moreover, this model is formulated
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Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks b
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3 Event Driven Scheduling Algorithm
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5 Mapping Teletraffic Theory to Ene
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6.2 Results and Performance Metrics
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Energy Efficient Refrigeration and
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Virtual Power PlantAggregatorSuperm
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C p,rC p,fT rT fW cφ sT a(UA) raHe
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Total PowerP.G. #1P.G. #2C.R. #1201
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the availability payment.Simulation
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The constraint in Eq. (16) has the
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The FlexControl concept - a vision,
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can react on requests for power reg
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3 ControlThe concept is based solel
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one hour to the next - correspondin
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4 ProtectionThe protection of the p
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Session 4 - Efficiency Improvements
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the product portfolio point of view
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Figure 4: Principle flow sheet of t
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process information needed are seld
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AIRFINE®(Reference)MEROS®Ca(OH)2M
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4 Conclusion & DiscussionThe Eco-Ca
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1 Energy policy and EU directivesTh
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iomass CHP, heat pumps, electric bo
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Fig. 1: How to supply a growing hea
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Session 5A - Wind Energy IRisø Int
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The average cumulative growth rate
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turbines is expected to create a st
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O&MGridWindturbineSubstructureFigur
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Another idea is to harvest energy f
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9. Shimon Awerbuch, Determining the
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engaged in wind energy assessment,
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treated in such a way to make them
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Figure 5: Map showing the estimated
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Figure 9: The annual mean power den
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mix is required. For example diurna
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Session 5B - Wind Energy IIRisø In
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TABLE ISOME OF THE WIND TURBINE MAN
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China, has prompted all parties, in
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to the high shaft speed. Furthermor
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Superconductors must be kept cold b
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an annual increase in demand of 6%,
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Improved High Temperature Supercond
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our study to a single set of deposi
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3.2 Yttrium-enriched YBCO thin film
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Fig. 5. AC-susceptibility dependenc
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The j C (B) dependence at 50 K for
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Session 6A - Bioenergy IRisø Inter
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The European politicians are faced
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The fast growing demand for biomass
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Figure 2: Avedøre Power Plant in C
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Figure 5: Concept for a sustainable
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The role of biomass and CCS in Chin
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2.2.1 CCS Potential for ChinaCCS is
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80%70%60%China's share ofglobal CO
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In general, if the CCS technology d
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with high implementation of CCS Chi
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The European Biofuels Policy: from
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aimed to promote agriculture-based
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(EC, 2009b), and internationally vi
Page 278 and 279: Session 6B - Bio Energy IIRisø Int
Page 280 and 281: The commercial scale production of
Page 282 and 283: the production process parameters,
Page 284 and 285: NutrientWaterAlgal cultureproductio
Page 286 and 287: Schenk, P.M., Thomas-Hall, S.R., St
Page 288 and 289: Liquid biofuels from blue biomassZs
Page 290 and 291: Even though final ethanol yields we
Page 292 and 293: Integrated Gasification SOFC Plant
Page 294 and 295: 2.1 Modelling of SOFCThe SOFC model
Page 296 and 297: where g 0 , R an T are the specific
Page 298 and 299: hand side y-axis corresponds to eff
Page 300 and 301: The moister content for these three
Page 302 and 303: Use of Methanation for Optimization
Page 304 and 305: power production from utilizing the
Page 306 and 307: 2.1 Model DescriptionThe developed
Page 308 and 309: Figure 3: Flow sheet of methanation
Page 310 and 311: efficiency and turbine inlet temper
Page 312 and 313: [14] DNA - A Thermal Energy System
Page 314 and 315: On the effectiveness of standards v
Page 316 and 317: educing new car emissions to 120 g
Page 318 and 319: In addition energy consumption E an
Page 320 and 321: coefficient γ for the impact of fu
Page 322 and 323: 400200Change in energy (PJ)01980 19
Page 324 and 325: Figure 9 depict scenarios for the f
Page 326 and 327: What are customers willing to pay f
Page 330 and 331: The likelihood for the model is giv
Page 332 and 333: eally means that this factor and no
Page 334 and 335: Table 5-1 Parameter estimates from
Page 336 and 337: Table 6-2 Willingness to pay for 10
Page 338 and 339: Session 12 - Energy for Developing
Page 340 and 341: Risø International Energy Conferen
Page 350 and 351: existing renewable energy technolog
Page 352 and 353: useful energyend energysecondary en
Page 354 and 355: parts or the means of enforcing war
Page 356 and 357: The development of micro-hydro proj
Page 358 and 359: Table 1. Electric power generation
Page 360 and 361: 5 ReferencesBajgain, S., Shakya, I.
Page 362 and 363: IntroductionElectricity has become
Page 364 and 365: of 2008, 43.6% of the total populat
Page 366 and 367: Hilmand provinces have comparativel
Page 368 and 369: ….. eq. 5LCOE is the net present
Page 370 and 371: case of Nepal, it is 5% (Trading ec
Page 372 and 373: ing down the cost of solar PV modul
Page 374 and 375: 3.3 Serving the rural areas with na
Page 376 and 377: The levelized costs of electricity
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Figure 4. Variation in LCOE with si
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The analysis reveals that fuel cost
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In case of DG, we have looked with
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Gross, R., Blyth, W., Heptonstall,
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Mode of Transport to Work, Car Owne
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power parity (PPP) basis, GDP per c
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83,385 to 109,108 while the number
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other purposes so that reduced fare
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emissions studies is that they were
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where I (·) is the indicator funct
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increases, individuals acquire more
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while that of other means of transp
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into CO 2 . For all oil and oil pro
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impact. In general, income is found
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7 ReferenceAlperovich, G., Deutsch,
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Table 1: Definitions of Variables a
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Session 13 - Energy StorageRisø In
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2 Storage demand and resulting stor
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compressed air storages, demand sit
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Fig. 3: Options for underground sto
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3.5 Geological potential in EuropeF
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Sensitivity on Battery Prices and C
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3.1 Base caseA northern European en
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4 ResultsThe model is run on a comp
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Furthermore, a slight decrease in t
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Night time charging increases with
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Lithuanian Energy Institute, PSE In
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atteries, Compressed Air Energy Sto
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negative net load, can be expected
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25%Pct. of the year20%15%10%5%0.5-0
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800006000040000MWh200000Netload-200
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[4] B. V. Mathiesen and H. Lund, "C
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Compressed Air Energy Storage in Of
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compressed air caverns, corrosion-r
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Figure 3: Distribution of salt depo
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Figure 6: EWEA's 20 year Offshore N
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spinning reserves can be provided b
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7 Discussion and conclusionsThis pa
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Risø DTU is the National Laborator
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