Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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energy demand; and, energy transmission, distribution, and transfer, is summarised.Indirect effects and cross-linkages with other economic sectors are highlighted to theextent possible.3.1 Fossil-fuel and nuclear energy resources and supplyClimate change can have implications for access, production and supply of thermalenergy sources. Access to oil and gas resources is impacted by e.g. reduced ice coveragein Greenland and the arctic areas and melting permafrost in Alaska (Casper, 2010). Theproduction of oil and gas is sensitive to extreme weather events that can lead to damagesto offshore platforms (Cruz and Krausmann, 2008). Flooding and sea level rise can leadto structural damages and erosion of production equipment. One of the importantpotential climate change impacts is the effect of increased air and water temperatures onthe technical efficiency with which fuels are converted to electricity. Even smallvariations in temperature can result in a significant change in the efficiency andreliability of energy supply. The demand for water to cool thermal and nuclear powerplants is vulnerable to the temperature and fluctuations in water supply and othercompeting needs for water (Forster and Lilliestam, 2010).Although there is general knowledge regarding the linkages and potential effects, there islittle or no peer reviewed literature on the effects on thermal and nuclear powerproduction of changes in river flows affecting cooling water availability; damages frominundation and from extreme weather events; vulnerability of offshore energyinfrastructure and impacts on the potential for exploitation of reserves; and, indirectimpacts on countries relying on energy imports through damages to roads, ports, etc.,affecting supply channels and end-supply.3.2 Renewable Energy Resources and SupplyRenewable energy including hydropower, wind, solar, and biofuels depend directly onclimate parameters and decisions are project and site-specific. Such decisions willgenerally be subject to additional uncertainty. Indeed, one of the repeated caveats in theavailable empirical literature on climate change impacts on renewable energy productionis that the results obtained are highly sensitive to uncertainties related to modelling theimpacts of climate change at regional and local scale (World Bank 2010a; World Bank,2010b; Mauser and Bach, 2009; Fenger, 2007).Climate change influences the geographical distribution and the variability of windfields, which determines the availability and reliability of wind energy for electricityproduction (Pryor and Barthelmie, 2010). Several studies have investigated the impactsof climate change on wind power (Harrison, Cradden et al., 2008; de Lucena, Szklo etal., 2010). However, the geographical coverage of the peer reviewed literature on theimpacts of climate change on wind power potential is uneven at present, with noavailable studies providing detailed analysis of the potential impacts of changes inextreme winds (Mideksa and Kallbekken, 2010). Apart from studies from USA, where adecrease in wind speed is found to be likely with a consequent decline in the potential forwind power, available studies indicate a small to moderate increase in the wind powerpotential with seasonal variations towards increased wind speed in the winter anddecreased wind speed in the summer4.Hydrological systems are affected by climate change in a variety of ways. Observedlong-term trends in precipitation for the period 1900-2005 indicate an increase in theeastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and centralAsia, while drying is observed in Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, parts of4 Available literature mainly covers the North Sea (Sood and Durante, 2006); the Nordic region(Fenger, 2007); Northern Europe (Pryor et al., 2005; Pryor and Barthelmie, 2010); UK (Cradden etal., 2006); Ireland (Lynch et al. 2006); the Eastern Mediterranean (Bloom et al., 2008); and,Continental and Northwest USA (Breslow and Sailor, 2002; Sailor et al., 2008).Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 28
northern South America, the Caribbean and parts of southern Asia (Ebinger and Vergara,2011). Another trend is a substantial increase in heavy precipitation events in manyregions, even in areas that have experienced a decrease in overall precipitation.To assess climate change impacts on hydropower, long-term changes in climatevariables are translated into run-off (Su and Xie, 2003; Madani and Lund, 2010; Singh,Thompson et al., 2010). The areas most affected include mountainous areas, valleys andrivers fed by melting snow and ice, where run-off and early spring discharge haveincreased (Dussaillant, Benito et al., 2010). However, as glaciers and snow melt andprecipitation patterns change, run-off is likely to decrease. These impacts severely affectthe availability of hydropower resources at regional and local levels. The warming oflakes and rivers affect the thermal structure and water quality (Delpla, Baures et al.,2011). An indirect impact is increased competition for water among economic sectorssuch as agriculture, energy and recreation.The supply of electricity from hydropower depends partly on the variation in water flowsand partly on installed generation capacity. Most systems are designed based onhistorical records assuming a stable climate, but increasingly analysis try to modelprojected changes in hydropower generation (Kim and Kaluarachchi, 2009). Two factorsare particularly important for the vulnerability of hydropower to climate change impacts:1) The share of hydropower in the energy mix of the system, and 2) Integration oftransmission networks nationally and regionally, as this decides whether plants should beoptimized individually or in the context of a larger energy system. Small run-of-riverplants offer little flexibility, but are at the same time associated with much lowerinvestment costs, whereas reservoir storage capacity can compensate for seasonal – evenannual – variations in water flows (Raje and Mujumdar, 2010).Peer reviewed literature is larger in volume and available for more regions of the worldfor hydropower than for wind power, although developing country analysis is underrepresented(Mideksa and Kallbekken, 2010)5. A study by Harrison et al. (2003)analyses the impacts of climate change on financial risk in hydropower projects using theZambezi river basin as a case. They find that climate change has the potential to bedoubly damaging for hydropower with the alteration of both the expected return fromhydroelectric installations and the financial risk that they face. Large parts of Africa relyheavily on hydropower for electricity production and recent droughts have hadsignificant impacts on power supply and economies (Eberhard et al., 2008; Karakezi etal., 2009). Further analyses of financial risk implications would be valuable both forAfrica and generally.In relation to liquid biofuels, the crops used as raw material to produce ethanol andbiodiesel such as sugarcane, soybeans and maize are vulnerable to the effects of climatechange. Climate change affects temperature, precipitation patterns, extreme weatherevents (droughts, floods, storms, fires and frost) and the level of CO 2 affecting the rate ofphotosynthesis, which all have significant impacts on crops (Dhakhwa, Campbell et al.,5 Studies include detailed analyses of impacts caused by the anticipated consequences of climatechange on Peru’s hydrology and hydropower potential (World Bank 2010c; World Bank, 2010d);hydropower generation vulnerability to climate change and water management practices in Brazil(Freitas and Soito, 2009); linkages between energy, poverty and climate change in Latin Americaand the Caribbean (Bariloche Foundation, 2009); analysis of climate change implications onhydropower in the Nordic region (Beldring et al. 2006; Fenger, 2007); evaluation of the impacts onhydropower, power plant efficiency, unproductive spills and reservoir reliability due to changes inthe hydrological regimes for the Peribonka River water resource system in Quebec (Minville et al.,2009); analysis of the impacts of projected climate change on two Aegean water basins and relatedissue of water stress for competing uses (Ozkul, 2009); large scale distributed hydrologicalmodelling to study the impact of climate change on the water flows of the mountainous Upper-Danube watershed in Central Europe (Mauser and Bach, 2009); impacts on hydropower productionbased on the Colorado River (Barnett et al., 2004) and the Central Valley (van Rheenen et al., 2003)in the United States.Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 29
Page 1 and 2: Energy Systems and Technologies for
Page 3 and 4: ContentsSessions overview 1Programm
Page 5 and 6: sessions overview08:00-09:00Coffee
Page 7 and 8: 11:00 - 12:30 session 6A - Bioenerg
Page 9 and 10: ContactSustainable Energy, Technica
Page 11 and 12: Penetration of new energy technolog
Page 13 and 14: how decisions are made and by whom
Page 15 and 16: (9) is the logaritimic expansion of
Page 17 and 18: (16)we may finally write Eq(14) in
Page 19 and 20: Table 1: Fast track cases for new r
Page 21 and 22: Peterka V. Macrodynamics of technol
Page 23 and 24: Growth in clean and reliable energy
Page 25 and 26: Conclusion - an ambitious vision an
Page 27 and 28: "Spurring investments in renewable
Page 29 and 30: Integrating climate change adaptati
Page 31: transport, and finance. Energy prov
Page 35 and 36: Table 1: Energy system adaptation s
Page 37 and 38: More generally, a number of no- or
Page 39 and 40: 6 ReferencesADB, 2005. Climate proo
Page 41 and 42: Sailor, D.J., Smith, M., Hart, M.,
Page 43 and 44: Factors affecting stakeholder perce
Page 45 and 46: Another study conducted in Japan wa
Page 47 and 48: 4 The effect of information on stak
Page 49 and 50: Furthermore, communication to stake
Page 51 and 52: Shackley S, McLachlan C, Gough C (2
Page 53 and 54: Figure 1: Potential CO 2 storage si
Page 55 and 56: The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceo
Page 57 and 58: The majority of the individual stru
Page 59 and 60: Development. Project no. ENK6-CT-19
Page 61 and 62: Section 5 summarises the key issue
Page 63 and 64: Table 1. Efficiencies for new large
Page 65 and 66: In addition, district heating syste
Page 67 and 68: 6.4 Model results from EFDA-TIMESIn
Page 69 and 70: Maisonnier, D., et al. (2007), Powe
Page 71 and 72: 1Efficiency and effectiveness of pr
Page 73 and 74: 3Stromerzeugung [TWh/a]250200150100
Page 75 and 76: 54 Country-specific Lessons learned
Page 77 and 78: 7100%90%80%quota fullfilment (%)70%
Page 79 and 80: [5] Haas R., et al: Efficiency and
Page 81 and 82: The development and diffusion of re
Page 83 and 84:
a. Offshore wind in DenmarkDenmark
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applicants are invited to submit a
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nies that provide upstream and down
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for both technology users and produ
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Trade Disputes over Renewable Energ
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treatment to imported renewable ene
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In Canada, the federal government i
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grid access, subsidies and land off
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In 2010, China’s total wind insta
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Source: Renewables 2010 Global Stat
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Source: REN 21, Renewables 2010 Glo
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Source: adapted from REN21, 2010It
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their precise scope and nature diff
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60 daysBy 2 nd DSBmeetingConsultati
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discriminatory manner on domestic a
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the European Union, the North Ameri
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ended. China lost this case because
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As most countries in the world are
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Session 3A - Energy SystemsRisø In
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1 IntroductionWith the introduction
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occur. This is an undesirably burea
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This curve could be used as a new t
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ut for the total consumption, and i
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This gives the LBR an opportunity t
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concludes that the subsurface conta
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to constrain the evaluation. In add
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Fig. 2 SW-NE trending seismic profi
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Fig. 5. Petrophysical evaluation of
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ConclusionsThe Danish subsurface co
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Performance of Space Heating in aMo
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[5],[10],[11],[16],[18],[20],[26].
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2/3 Sun1 Coal1/3 ElPower plantHP1 H
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25002000Surplus(min(wind,prod-cons)
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160CO 2 emission per unit heat prod
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The calculations have been based on
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Session 3B - smart gridsRisø Inter
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2 Myopic Investments2.1 The Balmore
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Moreover, this model is formulated
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Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks b
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3 Event Driven Scheduling Algorithm
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5 Mapping Teletraffic Theory to Ene
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6.2 Results and Performance Metrics
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Energy Efficient Refrigeration and
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Virtual Power PlantAggregatorSuperm
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C p,rC p,fT rT fW cφ sT a(UA) raHe
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Total PowerP.G. #1P.G. #2C.R. #1201
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the availability payment.Simulation
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The constraint in Eq. (16) has the
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The FlexControl concept - a vision,
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can react on requests for power reg
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3 ControlThe concept is based solel
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one hour to the next - correspondin
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4 ProtectionThe protection of the p
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Session 4 - Efficiency Improvements
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the product portfolio point of view
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Figure 4: Principle flow sheet of t
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process information needed are seld
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AIRFINE®(Reference)MEROS®Ca(OH)2M
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4 Conclusion & DiscussionThe Eco-Ca
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1 Energy policy and EU directivesTh
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iomass CHP, heat pumps, electric bo
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Fig. 1: How to supply a growing hea
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Session 5A - Wind Energy IRisø Int
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The average cumulative growth rate
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turbines is expected to create a st
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O&MGridWindturbineSubstructureFigur
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Another idea is to harvest energy f
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9. Shimon Awerbuch, Determining the
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engaged in wind energy assessment,
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treated in such a way to make them
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Figure 5: Map showing the estimated
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Figure 9: The annual mean power den
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mix is required. For example diurna
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Session 5B - Wind Energy IIRisø In
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TABLE ISOME OF THE WIND TURBINE MAN
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China, has prompted all parties, in
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to the high shaft speed. Furthermor
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Superconductors must be kept cold b
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an annual increase in demand of 6%,
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Improved High Temperature Supercond
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our study to a single set of deposi
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3.2 Yttrium-enriched YBCO thin film
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Fig. 5. AC-susceptibility dependenc
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The j C (B) dependence at 50 K for
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Session 6A - Bioenergy IRisø Inter
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The European politicians are faced
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The fast growing demand for biomass
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Figure 2: Avedøre Power Plant in C
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Figure 5: Concept for a sustainable
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The role of biomass and CCS in Chin
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2.2.1 CCS Potential for ChinaCCS is
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80%70%60%China's share ofglobal CO
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In general, if the CCS technology d
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with high implementation of CCS Chi
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The European Biofuels Policy: from
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aimed to promote agriculture-based
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(EC, 2009b), and internationally vi
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Session 6B - Bio Energy IIRisø Int
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The commercial scale production of
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the production process parameters,
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NutrientWaterAlgal cultureproductio
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Schenk, P.M., Thomas-Hall, S.R., St
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Liquid biofuels from blue biomassZs
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Even though final ethanol yields we
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Integrated Gasification SOFC Plant
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2.1 Modelling of SOFCThe SOFC model
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where g 0 , R an T are the specific
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hand side y-axis corresponds to eff
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The moister content for these three
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Use of Methanation for Optimization
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power production from utilizing the
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2.1 Model DescriptionThe developed
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Figure 3: Flow sheet of methanation
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efficiency and turbine inlet temper
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[14] DNA - A Thermal Energy System
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On the effectiveness of standards v
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educing new car emissions to 120 g
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In addition energy consumption E an
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coefficient γ for the impact of fu
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400200Change in energy (PJ)01980 19
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Figure 9 depict scenarios for the f
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What are customers willing to pay f
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Randomly, continuous up to ±50%Acc
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The likelihood for the model is giv
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eally means that this factor and no
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Table 5-1 Parameter estimates from
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Table 6-2 Willingness to pay for 10
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Session 12 - Energy for Developing
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Risø International Energy Conferen
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Page 344 and 345:
Page 346 and 347:
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existing renewable energy technolog
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useful energyend energysecondary en
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parts or the means of enforcing war
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The development of micro-hydro proj
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Table 1. Electric power generation
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5 ReferencesBajgain, S., Shakya, I.
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IntroductionElectricity has become
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of 2008, 43.6% of the total populat
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Hilmand provinces have comparativel
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….. eq. 5LCOE is the net present
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case of Nepal, it is 5% (Trading ec
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ing down the cost of solar PV modul
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3.3 Serving the rural areas with na
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The levelized costs of electricity
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Figure 4. Variation in LCOE with si
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The analysis reveals that fuel cost
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In case of DG, we have looked with
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Gross, R., Blyth, W., Heptonstall,
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Mode of Transport to Work, Car Owne
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power parity (PPP) basis, GDP per c
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83,385 to 109,108 while the number
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other purposes so that reduced fare
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emissions studies is that they were
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where I (·) is the indicator funct
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increases, individuals acquire more
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while that of other means of transp
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into CO 2 . For all oil and oil pro
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impact. In general, income is found
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7 ReferenceAlperovich, G., Deutsch,
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Table 1: Definitions of Variables a
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Session 13 - Energy StorageRisø In
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2 Storage demand and resulting stor
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compressed air storages, demand sit
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Fig. 3: Options for underground sto
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3.5 Geological potential in EuropeF
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Sensitivity on Battery Prices and C
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3.1 Base caseA northern European en
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4 ResultsThe model is run on a comp
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Furthermore, a slight decrease in t
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Night time charging increases with
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Lithuanian Energy Institute, PSE In
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atteries, Compressed Air Energy Sto
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negative net load, can be expected
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25%Pct. of the year20%15%10%5%0.5-0
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800006000040000MWh200000Netload-200
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[4] B. V. Mathiesen and H. Lund, "C
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Compressed Air Energy Storage in Of
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compressed air caverns, corrosion-r
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Figure 3: Distribution of salt depo
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Figure 6: EWEA's 20 year Offshore N
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spinning reserves can be provided b
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7 Discussion and conclusionsThis pa
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Risø DTU is the National Laborator
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