Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

The fast growing demand for biomass in these quantities will meanthat less easily accessible resources will need to be sourcedthat we are looking at a wider range of biofuelsthat the requisite capacity allowing exploitation of the biomass must be established speedilythat import of biomass to Europe must be envisagedthat the increasing demand despite advantages of scale can result in increasing biomass pricesthat discussions about the sustainability and demands for recycling of nutrients must be expectedthat the energy industry is likely to compete with other industries about the bio‐resources.The markedly increasing demand may lead to a risk of changes in land use, environmental aspects such asthe questions of biodiversity, exhaustion of the soil, erosion, changes to the nutritional balance anddegradation of water habitats.With these consequences in mind for Europe and in view of the expected import of biomass required toreach the ambitious targets laid down by the European countries with the 20/20/20 target, Eurelectric hasencouraged the Commission to see to it that a set of European sustainability criteria are defined before theend of 2011. The intention being that a common set of European criteria will ensure sustainable importsand lower the risk of long‐term investments in bio‐energy while at the same time preventing individualcountries from laying down local rules that can add to a non‐transparent and inefficient market whichwould lead to elevated costs.ConceptsIn specific terms, the highly ambitious biomass plan means that there must be efforts on all fronts. In termsof resources efforts will be invested in taking all conceivable remaining fractions into use and also to aconsiderable degree in developing new, effective bio‐resources. In the terms of application, we are likely tomeet demands for speedily establishment of capacity, modest investments and significant flexibility andinventiveness. In parallel with this it will be difficult to make any predictions about prices and reliability ofsupply for a horizon spanning two or three decades. Consequently, the market will be asking for the lowestpossible CAPEX figures.Now the question is what types of concepts are we looking at? Below is a short list of the trends seen forbiomass application based on Danish experience and observations over the past two decades.There are three immediate scenarios:Existing facilities – co‐firing. A scenario which focuses on processing the biomass, in order either touse the biomass alone or together with coal in existing facilities.New biomass facilities. A scenario which tries to make the biomass resemble coal as much aspossible – such that the resource can be handled, transported and used in as unsophisticated amanner as possible in new, large, decentralised, dedicated biomass facilities.Bio refinery. A scenario where new concepts are based on the unique properties of the biomassand in view of this deliver fractions of the biomass for energy purposes and other quantities toRisø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 252