12th International Conference on Harmful Algae

INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR THE STUDY OF HARMFUL ALGAE12 th <strong>International</strong> <strong>Conference</strong> on Harmful Algae, Copenhagen, Denmark, 4-8 September 2006PO.07-14Paralytic shellfish poisoning inthe North Sea – a secularperspectiveSession: PO.07 - Ecology andoceanographyT Wyatt 1 , F Jordan 21 Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas,VIGO, Spain2 Collegium Budapest, BUDAPEST,HungaryParalytic shellfish poisoning (PSP)has been a recognized medicalsyndrome since the late eighteenthcentury, despite the rarity ofdiagnoses. European records from1827 to 1967 (140 years) in whichthe clinical symptoms areunequivocal number only about 100cases distributed between nineoutbreaks, mostly in the UnitedKingdom (UK). Since 1968,following a major episode in the UKthat year, monitoring programmesindicate that the risk of poisoninghas been high most years, and thatin the absence of public healthinitiatives would almost certainlyhave led to many more cases. Thuson the basis of its clinical incidenceprior to 1968, and monitoring sincethen, an abrupt ‘regime shift’ hasapparently occurred which hasprobably led to increasedabundance of the toxic agent,Alexandrium tamarense, since the1960s. Some recent studiesindicate that there may have beensignificant phenological trends inNorth Sea dinoflagellates, but theclinical evidence does notunambiguously support a climaticinterpretation in this case. Thispaper uses network analysis, inwhich fishing plays a major role, toexplore the question.PO.15-07Moving towards an operationalharmful algal bloom forecastingsystem in Texas (USA)Session: PO.15 - MonitoringTT Wynne 1 , RP Stumpf 1 , MCTomlinson 1 , TA Villareal 2 , K Wiles 3 , GHeideman 3 , M Byrd 4 , D Buzan 4 , LCampbell 51 NOAA/NOS, SILVER SPRING, UnitedStates of America2 University of Texas at Austin, PORTARANSAS, United States of America3 Texas Department of State Health Service,AUSTIN, United States of America4 Texas Parks and Wildlife Department,AUSTIN, United States of America5 Texas A&M University, COLLEGESTATION, United States of AmericaBlooms of the toxic harmful algae,Karenia brevis, have beenpersistent and problematic in theGulf of Mexico (USA) for decades.A heuristic ecological model basedon satellite imagery has beenshown to be effective in identifyinglikely Karenia blooms in the easternGulf of Mexico (Florida). 'New'blooms are identified by satellite,and those blooms that meet certaincriteria are identified as likelyKarenia. The method is core to thedetection component of theoperational Harmful Algal Bloom(HAB) forecast deployed by theNational Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA), in October2004. The Texas coast commonlyhas false positives resulting fromfrequent resuspension events. Themethod was modified tocompensate for these events.However, because of theinfrequency of Karenia HABs alongthe Texas coast, only one majorbloom event coincided withavailable SeaWiFS imagery. Thisevent was used to validate themethods presented by Wynne et al.305