Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris

ISTANBUL
REVUE DE PRESSE-PRESS REVIEW-BERHEVOKA ÇAPÊ-RzvISTA STAMPA-DENTRO DE LA PRENSA-BASIN ÖZETi
Turkey THE ECONOMIST. FEBRUARY 5, 1994
The lady and
the lira
THE prime minister got the job because
she was supposed to be good at economics.
Tansu Ciller had been a professor of the
subject when, in 1991,she was made Turkey's
economy minister. She held on to that
responsibilitywhen she became prime minister
in June 1993. Now she seems to have
made a hash of it, arid perhaps of some
other things as well. She may get away with
messing the economy up. But what her True
Path Party may not forgive her for-if it is
asked to-is losing the local elections due on
March 27th.
Mrs Ciller's problems stem from a collapse
of the Turkish lira. The currency was
devalued on January 26th, by 12%. Not
enough, thought currency traders; a further
run on the lira was stopped only by jacking
interest rates up until, at one point last
week, banks were paying an annual rate of
600% for overnight borrowing. On January
31stthe governor of the central bank, Bulent
Gultekin (who had been recently appointed
.by the prime minister), resigned, saying that
without a stiff stabilisation package worse
troubles layahead.
The collapse began in mid-January,
when two credit-rating agencies, Standard
& Poor's and Moody's, cut Turkey's rating
after a row between government and central
bank over how stiff an anti-inflation policy
was needed (inflation is now 65%). The
credit agencies were worried by the government's
obvious failure to control spending
(the public-sector borrowing requirement
was 16%of GDP at the end of 1993),and by
fears that the fighting in the Kurdish southeast
of the country would grow even worse.
It is not unusual in Turkey for government
spending to rise as elections approach.
With local elections due next
month, that has duly happened. So far, so
routine. What turned things into a crisis was
Mrs Ciller's failure to make the treasury and
central bank work in harness. Underthe lib-
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Turkey Admits Iranian~l
Died inRaid on Kurds
Reuters
ANKARA - Turkey expressed
"deep sorrow"on Thursday that an
"air raid aimed at rebel Kurds in
iraq had killedIranians bymistake,
. The ForeignMinistry said it had
'been established that a few cluster
'pombs aimed at anti-aircraft positions
near the Iranian border exploded
in the air, causing deaths
.a1ldproperty damage on Iranian
soil. Tehran said 9 Iranians .were
killed and 19wounded in the raid
"We are deeply sorry that Iranian
citizens lost lives and property.
as result of such an incident," it
said.
era! regime that she believes in, Turkish exchange
controls areweak. So, as the central
bank churned out money, the people who
got their hands on it promptlyturned it into
harder currencies. There was no avoiding a
devaluation that, by one estimate, cost
Turkish banks $1.2billion.
Those who vote in March may not weep
at the banks' .losses. But they will pay the
price later, in growth deferred, and in inflation's
expected leap into triple figures. Mrs
Ciller, still trying to rally her once-trusted
bureaucrats, may not have much time to
wonder if she has lost her chance to achieve
her aim-the unification of the moderate,
non-Islamic right.
Mrs Ciller succeeded Suleiman Demirel
as leader ofTrue Path last June because the
party thought that her energy (and, as a
woman, her novelty) might win over many
of the urban voters who in 1991had supported
the Motherland Party founded by
Turgut Ozal. Betwen them, True Path and
Motherland command Turkey's secular
centre right, which in turn generally gets the
support of most Turkish voters.
Most members of the True Path and
Motherland parties could settle down into a
single group. Were Turkey not a Muslim
country,both.mi~ht be described as Chris-
liras/dollar, inverted scale
Sources:
1989
90
ElU; Datastream
91
..
Timf! running out TurRey's:
92
93 94
o
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
L'Humanité - 5 février 1994
tian o'emocrats öf the Ita!ian sort. But in
government True Path has been having a
hard time not only with the economy but
also in coping with the Kurdish guerrillas. A
prominent former member ofTrue path,I1-
han Kesici, is standing as the Motherland
candidate for mayor in Istanbul, by far the
biggest job at stake in the March elections.
At the moment it looks as ifhis main competitio!)
will come from the Islamic conservatives
of the Welfare Party. Other disappointed
followers of Mrs Ciller may now be
tempted to defect. The leader of the Motherland
party has' said that two dozen True
Path members of parliament have talked to
him about changing sides.
In Turkish :politics,sudden reverses and
recoveries are common. Mrs Ciller could
bounce back. YetMarch, as well as bringing
the local elections, brings springtime, when
the Kurdish guerrillas in south-eastern Turkey
habitually break out in a fresh bout of
mayhem. To that threat the prime minister's
only answer so far has been to unleash the
army, which often behaves brutally-and,
so far, without lasting success.Apart from its
other evils, this small war is costing Turkey's
government a lot of money it cannot afford .
% increase on year earlier
Sbn
1989 .
Délégation de députésk.urdes
àl'Elysée
François Mitterrand a reçu vendredi après-midiune délégation
de parlementaires kurdes de Turquie conduite par Ahmet Turk,
Leyla Zana et Sirri Sakik. Cette audience fait suite à un appel
adresséau présidentde la Républiquepar 17 députéskurdesdont la
levéede l'immunité parlementaire,recommandéepar la commission
ad hoc de l'Assembléenationale de Turquie, doit être prochainement
votée. En cas de levéede cette immunité, ces députés seront
déferés devant la Cour de sûreté de l'Etat et risquent la peine de
mort. Ces députés sont tous membresdu Parti de la démocratie
(DEP), qui prône le règlementdu problème kurde par la voie
pacifique. .
90
91
92
70
68
66
64
62
60
93 est '"
2
+ o
-
2
.
138