DHL Global Connectedness Index 2014

56 3. The Depth of Global Connectedness
3. The Depth of Global Connectedness – Notes
1 UNCTAD. “World Investment Report 2013: Global Value Chains: Investment
and Trade for Development.” (2013), p. 123. http://unctad.org/en/
PublicationsLibrary/wir2013_en.pdf.
2 Other imperfections in the underlying data utilized here should also be
noted. The data employed throughout this chapter are derived from
customs statistics. Thus, unofficial suitcase/contraband trade is excluded.
Customs data are also impacted by invoicing irregularities that arise, for
example, from practices aimed at reducing firms’ global tax liabilities by
setting transfer prices to show greater profits in jurisdictions with lower
tax rates.
3 Thomas Friedman’s book The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twentyfirst
Century (Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2005) has sold more than 4 million
copies in 37 languages according to Mr. Friedman’s website.
4 1820–1972: Angus Maddison. “Monitoring the World Economy 1820–
1992,” OECD 1995; 1973–1980: World Trade Organization statistics database
and World Bank World Development Indicators; 1981–2013: World
Trade Organization statistics database and IMF World Economic Outlook.
5 Jeffrey A. Frankel. “Assessing the Efficiency Gain from Further Liberalization,”
in Efficiency, Equity, and Legitimacy: The Multilateral Trading System
at the Millennium, Roger B. Porter, Pierre Sauvé, Arvind Subramanian
and Americo Beviglia Zampetti, eds. (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution
Press, 2001), 81–105.
6 For more on benefits of global connectedness and policies countries can
use to strengthen it, refer to Chapter 4 of the DHL Global Connectedness
Index 2012 and Chapters 4 and 5 of the DHL Global Connectedness Index
2011.
7 World Economic Forum. “Enabling Trade: Valuing Growth Opportunities.”
(2013). http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_SCT_EnablingTrade_
Report_2013.pdf.
8 Based on data from WTO time series statistics on merchandise and services
trade and GDP data from IMF World Economic Outlook Database,
April 2014.
9 IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014.
10 World Trade Organization. “Modest Trade Growth Anticipated for 2014
and 2015 Following Two Year Slump,” Press Release, April 14, 2014. http://
www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres14_e/pr721_e.htm.
11 IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014.
12 Based on IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2014.
13 World Trade Organization, “Modest trade growth anticipated,” (2014).
14 Raymond Zhong and Peter Kenny. “WTO Fails to Ratify Trade Agreement,”
The Wall Street Journal, July 31, 2014. Available through ProQuest
at: http://search.proquest.com./docview/1549952668.
15 Pankaj Ghemawat and Steven A. Altman. “WTO’s Baby Steps at Bali a Big
Deal.” CNN Global Public Square, January 9, 2014. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2014/01/09/wtos-baby-steps-at-bali-a-big-deal/.
16 Generated based on data from World Trade Organization statistics and
IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2014.
17 This calculation includes only measures coded as “red” (protectionist) or
“green” (liberalizing), excluding ambiguous “amber” measures. Measures
grouped by year based on inception date.
18 Global Trade Alert. “Beggar-Thy-Poor-Neighbour: Crisis Era Protectionism
and Developing Countries: the 15 th GTA Report.” Simon J. Evenett, editor,
(London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2014). http://www.globaltradealert.org/15th_GTA_report.
19 Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler. “The Hyperglobalization of
Trade and Its Future.” Peterson Institute for International Economics
Working Paper, no. No. 13-6 (July 24, 2013). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.
com/abstract=2297994 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2297994.
20 M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei.
“Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal.” IMF Working Paper, no.
WP/06/189 (August 2006). http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2006/
wp06189.pdf.
21 Gross capital flow data 1980–2011 drawn from World Bank, “Capital for
the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World,” 2013;
capital flows in 2012 estimated based on growth rate of capital flows
shown in “Capital: Just in Case,” The Economist, October 12, 2013; GDP
data from IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2013.
22 Gianni De Nicolo and Luciana Juvenal. “Financial Integration, Globalization,
Growth, and Systemic Real Risk.” Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis working paper no. 2010-012D, revised October 2010. Available at
SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1588992 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/
ssrn.1588992.
23 Kose et al., “Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal,” p. 38.
24 The categorization of flows here reflects that shown in the data source
employed, World Bank. “Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment
in an Interdependent World.” 2013. The loans category consists primarily
of lending by bank and non-bank financial institutions, however this
category also includes all “other” capital flows that are classified neither
as FDI nor as portfolio investment.
25 In this section, advanced economies are those economies designated as
advanced in World Bank, “Capital for the Future,” 2013, and emerging
economies are those designated as developing in the same report, rather
than the IMF classifications employed elsewhere in this report.
26 McKinsey Global Institute, Susan Lund, Toos Daruvala, Richard Dobbs,
Philipp Härle, Ju-Hon Kwek, and Ricardo Falcón. “Financial Globalization:
Retreat or Reset” (March 2013). http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/
global_capital_markets/financial_globalization.
27 Gross capital flow data drawn from World Bank, “Capital for the Future:
Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World,” 2013. Advanced
and emerging economies are as classified in that source, rather than corresponding
to the IMF classification scheme used through the rest of this
report.
28 While capital flows are smoothed over three year averages to reduce
volatility when calculating index scores and ranks, those averages were
removed when calculating this chart in order to draw attention to yearto-year
movements in the variables covered.