DHL Global Connectedness Index 2014

DHL Global Connectedness Index 2014
65
Figure 4.7
Concentration by Component, 2005 versus 2013 (or most recent)
0.45
↑E
(.48)
E
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
A
E
E
A A
E
E
E A E
A A
E
E
A
A
E
E
A
A
E
E
A
A
E
E
A A
E
E
E
E A A A
A A A
A A
A A
AE A
E
E
E
E E
E
E
A
A
E
E
A
A
0.05
0.00
Merchandise Exports
Merchandise Imports
FDI Outward Stocks
FDI Inward Stocks
FDI Outflows
FDI Inflows
Portfolio Equity Outward Stocks
Phone Calls Outward
Phone Calls Inward
Printed Publications Exports
Printed Publications Imports
Emigration
Immigration
Students Incoming
Trade Capital Information People
Tourist Arrivals
2005 2013 or Most Recent A Advanced Economies Only E Emerging Economies Only
Concentration trends are mixed across components. Emerging economies have higher concentration scores on all of the components except merchandise
imports and printed publications imports.
Looking forward, concentration trends can be projected
using GDP growth forecasts. Based on IMF forecasts,
China’s growing share of the world economy is projected to
drive up global concentration of economic output at least
through 2019. 8 This suggests the strong possibility that the
concentration of many countries’ international interactions
will rise over the medium term, especially in countries
with close economic links to China.
As mentioned above, reducing the concentration of countries’
international interactions—particularly on the trade
and capital pillars—can bring economic benefits of diversification.
Diversification on the information and people
pillars can also help open up a country to a wider range of
ideas, cultures, and so on. However, as with breadth, there
can be no general presumption that all countries should
always seek to reduce the concentration of their interactions.
Diversification can also be overdone, and so must be
analyzed on a country-by-country basis.
Figure 4.8 Concentration Trends of
International Interactions, 2005 – 2013
102%
100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
88%
86%
84%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Countries’ Interactions across Partners
Countries’ Shares of World Interactions
Changes in the concentration of countries’ international interactions across
partners since 2005 have been smaller than changes in the concentration
of international interactions on a global basis, providing another indicator
of how countries’ distributions have lagged global shifts.