DHL Global Connectedness Index 2014

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60 4. The Breadth of Global Connectedness Figure 4.1. Breadth, Concentration, Distance, and % Intra-regional, Changes versus 2005 Baseline 1 108% 106% 104% 102% 100% 98% 96% 94% Figure 4.2 Growing and Shifting Interactions, Advanced vs. Emerging Economies, 2005 – 2013 (or most recent available year) 3 Absolute Growth 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 92% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 40% 20% Breadth Distance Concentration % Intra-regional 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 The breadth of global connectedness has declined every year since 2005 except for an uptick in 2009. International interactions have also stretched out over greater distances, become less regionalized, and spread out more evenly across partners (become less concentrated) over the same period. From Advanced to Advanced From Emerging to Advanced Shifting Shares 100% 90% 80% From Advanced to Emerging From Emerging to Emerging The breadth of the world’s global connectedness has declined every year since it was first measured in 2005, except for a single uptick during the financial crisis in 2009, as shown on Figure 4.1. Declining breadth implies that the distributions of countries’ international interactions and the global distributions of the same interactions have diverged over time. Relative to a growing globe with a shifting center of economic mass, the breadth of countries’ international interactions has become less global. 1 The other measures shown on Figure 4.1, however, all point to countries’ international interactions becoming more rather than less spread out. These measures differ from breadth in that they measure absolute levels of globalization whereas breadth measures globalization relative to a benchmark that shifts with countries’ evolving international opportunities. These other measures complement the breadth results. Concentration tracks whether countries’ international interactions are narrowly focused among a few partners or are spread out evenly across them. It is calculated using a concentration measure that ranges from a maximum of 1 if all of a country’s interactions are concentrated with a single partner and approaches zero as they are spread out more evenly across partners. 2 Concentration declined between 2005 and 2007, but that decline has since been partially reversed. The relationship between breadth trends and concentration trends will be examined later in this chapter. Distance and intra-regional share are both geographic indicators of (absolute) globalization. The former simply 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 From Advanced to Advanced From Emerging to Advanced From Advanced to Emerging From Emerging to Emerging The rising participation of emerging economies in international interactions is reshaping global connectedness. In 2005, over half of international interactions took place between advanced economies, but now the majority involve an emerging economy on one or both sides of the interaction. reflects the weighted average distance traversed by all the international interactions covered by the breadth components of the index. Intra-regional share, aggregated in the same way, measures the percentage of interactions that take place within the seven regions listed in Appendix B. Figure 4.1 indicates that international flows and stocks bridged greater distances in 2013 than in 2005, and a smaller proportion of them took place within regions. These shifts are closely related to the rise of emerging economies as major participants in the interactions tracked on the DHL Global Connectedness Index. Figure 4.2 summarizes how the rise of emerging economies has expanded international interactions in absolute terms and shifted them in relative terms toward emerging economies. Across all of the breadth components of the index (aggregated
DHL Global Connectedness Index 2014 61 Figure 4.3 Growing and Shifting Interactions by Component, Advanced vs. Emerging Economies, 2005 vs. 2013 (or most recent available year) 4 Absolute Amounts of Flows or Stocks Shares of World Flows or Stocks Merchandise Trade (based on exports) in billions of constant 2005 US Dollars Merchandise 2013 2005 2013 2005 Merch $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% FDI Stocks (based on outward) in billions of constant 2005 US Dollars FDI outward 2012 2005 2012 2005 FDI ou $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% FDI Stocks (based on inward) in billions of constant 2005 FDI US Inward Dollars 2012 2005 2012 2005 FDI Inw $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Portfolio Equity Stocks (based on outward) in billions of constant 2005 Portfolio US Dollars 2012 2005 2012 2005 Portfo $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Phone Call Minutes (based on outbound) in billions Phone 2012 2005 2012 2005 Phone 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Trade in Printed Publications (based on exports) billions of constant 2005 Print US Dollars 2012 2005 2012 2005 Print $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Migrants in millions Migration 2013 2005 2013 2005 Migrat 0 50 100 150 200 250 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Tourist Departures/Arrivals (based on arrivals) in millions Tourist 2012 2005 2012 2005 Tourist 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% International Students (based on inbound) in thousands Students 2012 2005 2012 2005 Studen 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% From Advanced to Advanced From Advanced to Emerging From Emerging to Advanced From Emerging to Emerging Not Available Advanced Advanced Advanced Emerging The shift of activity to emerging economies varies widely across the types Emerging of interactions Advanced covered in Emerging the index. Emerging Most migrants were already from emerging economies in 2005 whereas most international capital flows still originate in advanced economies. using their standard index weights), flows are decomposed into those between advanced economies, from advanced to emerging economies, from emerging to advanced economies, and between emerging economies. In 2005, over half (56%) of all of the international interactions covered by the index took place between advanced economies. By 2013, that proportion had fallen to 48%, and thus the majority of international interactions involved an emerging economy on one or both sides of the interaction. The fastest growing interactions were those from one emerging economy to another emerging economy: their share rose from 9% to 13%. 3
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Pankaj Ghemawat and Steven A. Altma
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DHL GLOBAL CONNECTEDNESS INDEX 2014
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DHL Global Connectedness Index 2014
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286 Appendix B - Data Sources, Regr
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288 Appendix B - Data Sources, Regr
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Praise for the DHL Global Connected
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