Campaigns to End Violence against Women and Girls - Virtual ...

3.5 RISK ANALYSIS
Unlike SWOT and PESTEL analysis, risk analysis does not only examine the present
situation, but asks the question “what might go wrong?” It examines the likelihood of
new problems surfacing, or existing threats and weaknesses worsening, and the
potential impact of this on the campaign. Risk analysis is needed to plan for
emergencies and contingencies.
More specifically, risk analysis examines:
- External threats that may affect the target audience generally or in relation to the
campaign, e.g. a rise in conservative religious sentiment or likely armed conflict
- External threats that may affect the campaign activities, e.g. a law might be adopted
that limits NGO activism, change in government or policy or a new education policy
may make access to schools more difficult
- Internal threats that may affect the capacity to run the campaign, e.g. an alliance
member might leave, or key campaigners might no longer be available for the
campaign
Risk analysis does not focus on existing weaknesses, such as lack of funding. It
anticipates future problems – e.g. the possible lack of donor response to your
fundraising strategy.
Practical Instructions for Risk Analysis
Use or adapt the template below. For each risk identified, consider how likely the risk is
and how serious the consequences would be if it were to materialize. Scoring
determines which risks deserve particular attention. In the example below, scoring from
1 to 10 is used; alternatively you can use a simpler system with just three scores (“high
– medium – low”).
Risk Probability
1.
(1 – very unlikely;
10 – highly likely
Impact
(1 – insignificant;
10 – very
serious)
How to minimize or
mitigate the risk?
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Campaigns December 2011