Poverty and Human Development Report 2009 - UNDP in Tanzania

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pOVertY aND hUMaN DeVeLOpMeNt repOrt 2009 168 Income from non-farm self-employment Quintile 2000/01 2007 3 rd 43.9 21,912 54.3 43,894 4 th 49.7 34,896 53.9 54,221 least poor 49.5 65,292 48.2 125,135 dar es salaam 46.9 81,850 51.0 108,053 other urban 55.4 59,891 46.6 98,063 rural 42.3 19,178 52.1 32,305 Tanzania Mainland 44.6 31,209 50.8 50,999 source: hoogeveen et al., 2009 there is also evidence which suggests that smallholder farming has become comparatively less remunerative – certainly not more remunerative – as the price of the main crops produced on farms (maize and rice) has declined slightly relative to the prices of processed products brought in from elsewhere (sugar and cooking oil) (table 48). the change in relative prices for maize is marginal, for rice it is more marked. in 2000/01, 5.8 kg of maize or 3.5 kg of rice had to be sold to obtain 1 kg of sugar; in 2007 this had increased to 6.0 kg of maize and 4.0 kg of rice. the price of a litre of cooking oil increased marginally from 8.7 kg of maize in 2000/01 to 8.8 kg in 2007, and from 5.2 kg of rice to 5.8 kg. the ratio of maize flour relative to maize grain or rice remained more or less unchanged, possibly because much maize flour is locally milled. Table 48: Prices of Processed Products relative to Prices of Locally Produced Products Maize grain Rice (paddy) 2001 2007 2001 2007 sugar 5.8 6.0 3.5 4.0 Cooking oil 8.7 8.8 5.2 5.8 Maize flour 2.0 2.0 1.2 1.3 source: hoogeveen et al., 2009
Conclusion Chapter 2 income poverty rates overall changed little between 2000/01 and 2007, as reflected in the nearly constant levels of household consumption and income inequality over this period. At national level, household consumption per capita increased by only 5%, implying an average change of 0.8% annually. At the same time, income inequality remained at close to the same level – the poorest group of households experienced a small fall in consumption, while the least poor group experienced a slightly larger increase. results from expenditure patterns and asset ownership, are consistent with the finding that income poverty levels have barely changed. As a consequence, the MKuKutA target for income poverty reduction is now out of reach, and tanzania faces a huge challenge to achieve MdG1 by 2015. to do so will require annual real consumption growth of 3.2% per capita, four times higher than the existing level. encouragingly, from a policy perspective, a significant proportion of households have consumption levels not far below the poverty line. data show that household consumption is extremely low. Almost 98% of households spend less than tshs 58,000 per month per adult equivalent on food and basic necessities (2007 prices), and approximately 80% spend less than tshs 38,600 per month or tshs 1,380 per day. to achieve meaningful change in household well-being, consumption levels must increase significantly. Continued high rates of economic growth over the long term will be required. since tanzania’s level of income inequality is currently low, even by international standards, redistribution of income is not likely to be effective. ownership of consumer durables, productive assets and the quality of housing did improve for all wealth quintiles in both rural and urban areas. this was largely the result of falling prices for these assets, which enabled tanzanians to buy more for less money. in part, this reflects the positive change to a more liberalised market environment in tanzania. poverty remains an overwhelmingly agricultural phenomenon, particularly among cropdependent households. the majority of tanzanians remain engaged in agriculture, but it is the least remunerative sector in the economy, with a household poverty rate of 38.7%. the combination of the large portion of the population engaged in agriculture and high poverty rates explains why three-quarters of the poor are dependent on agriculture. households are diversifying out of agriculture seeking to improve their well-being. indeed, diversification of income-generating activities is occurring across all wealth quintiles. however, the success of households in diversification, as reflected in the amount earned from non-farm activities, varies markedly across quintiles. the least poor households earn approximately eleven times more in self-employment than do the poorest households. it would appear that the least poor households diversify to exploit opportunities, while the poorest households diversify out of desperation and for survival. these findings have strong implications for the development of MKuKutA ii. Given that the majority of tanzanians will continue to reside in rural areas and derive livelihood from agriculture, it is imperative to prioritise interventions that raise agricultural productivity. furthermore, since capabilities to identify and implement non-farm income-generating activities take time to develop, programmes have to be developed to nurture and sustain household capabilities for successful diversification. 169
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UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA POVERTY
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COnTEnTS List of Tables ...........
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MKUKUTA Cluster II: CONteNts Improv
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CONteNts Data.for.Monitoring.......
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CONteNts HOUSEHOLD OCCUPATION AND P
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Table 25: Table 26: Percent of Adul
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Figure 21: Figure 22: Percentage of
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LisT Of AbbREViATiONs AIDS Acquired
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PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Pap
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ExECUTIvE SUMMARy The Poverty and H
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in poverty. Nonetheless, the challe
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evise allocations based on identifi
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Monitoring Implications A comprehen
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eXeCUtiVe sUMMarY Good governance a
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Chapter Progress towards the goals
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GDP Growth by Sector the principal
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Figure 2: Sectoral Contribution to
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Chapter I CLUSter 1 Box 2: The Impa
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Household Income (Consumption) Pove
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Income Poverty and GDP Growth the 2
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although global oil and food prices
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Figure 6: FDI Inflows 2000-2008 (US
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orrow from outside tanzania, where
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Infrastructure Roads the condition
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quantity but also in quality. for i
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Chapter I CLUSter 1 GOaL 4 & 5 prop
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Customers Connected to Sources of E
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Cluster I Conclusions and Policy Im
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MKUKUTA INDICATORS - SUMMARY OF DAT
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Indicator Baseline Trend Target MKU
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MKUKUTA Cluster II: Improvement of
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Regional variations in enrolment ha
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CLUSTER II- GOAL 1 and/or not compl
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Pupil/Teacher Ratio Overall, the pu
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provision of housing, funding for w
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CLUSTER II- GOAL 1 Table 11: Primar
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Table 12: Benefit Incidence Analysi
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Figure 15: Infant and Under-Five Mo
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Figure 17: Prevalence of Malaria in
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Figure 19: Percentage of Children U
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Table 13: Indicators of Malnutritio
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CLUSTER II- GOAL 2 Ghana (Edmond et
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Figure 24: Percentage of Births Tak
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Figure 26: HIV Prevalence by Age Gr
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Figure 28: Projected Number of Adul
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Projections based on the model indi
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Access to Healthcare Services On th
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Health Services Development Strateg
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Figure 34: Access to Clean and Safe
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POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPOR
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MKUKUTA INDICATORS - SUMMARY OF DAT
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Target Indicator Baseline Trend MKU
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Sources: a = various sources as ind
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Page 148 and 149: POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPOR
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