Poverty and Human Development Report 2009 - UNDP in Tanzania

Figure 26: HIV Prevalence by Age Group and Gender, 2007/08
% HIV-positive
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1.3
15-19
years
0.7
6.3
Source: THMIS 2007/08
20-24
years
1.7
7.9
25-29
years
5.0
10.4
30-34
years
7.4
Age group
9.5
35-39
years
10.6
6.7
40-44
years
7.6
45-49
years
6.8
6.1
CLUSTER II- GOAL 2
Men
Women
Whether recent trends in HIV prevalence reflect behaviour modification is open to question.
Self-reported measures of sexual behaviour are notoriously unreliable. Moreover, the changes
in self-reported sexual behaviour (age at sexual debut, condom use, multiple partners, higherrisk
sex) between 2003 and 2007 are only very slight (following larger changes between
1999 and 2003).
Although the survey results are encouraging, HIV prevalence rates across the country continue
to exhibit huge disparities – from less than 3% in five regions, to 9% in Dar es Salaam and 15%
in Iringa (Figure 27). Moreover, some previously high-prevalence regions (e.g., Mbeya) have seen
a reduction in prevalence, while others (e.g., Iringa) exhibit an increase. The factors underlying
these changes and the likely trajectory of the epidemic in different regions are largely unknown.
This is a priority question demanding further research. As one study contends, the rural epidemic
has lagged behind the urban epidemic, and suggests that recent changes in HIV prevalence by
region are associated with changing urban/rural population proportions in these regions (AIDS
Strategy and Action Plans (ASAP) and UNAIDS, 2008).
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