Poverty and Human Development Report 2009 - UNDP in Tanzania

GDP Growth by Sector
the principal theories of economic transformation recognise that the share of the agricultural
sector will contract with national development, leaving space for expansion of the industrial
and service sectors. analysis of sectoral contributions to tanzanian gdP since 1998 indicates
modest structural change (figure 2). services constitute the largest sector in the economy,
and the sector’s share in total gdP has increased slightly from 45% in 1998 to almost 48% in
2008. within this sector, ‘trade and repairs’ together with ‘real estate and business services’
are the major contributors. the contribution of construction and mining to gdP also increased
from around 7% to 9% over the same period. while the agricultural sector remains central to
tanzania’s economy, its contribution to gdP (excluding fishing) has dropped by 6 percentage
points from around 30% in 1998 to approximately 24% in 2008.
Box 1: Revision of GDP Estimates in the National Accounts to 2001 Prices
gdP estimates in the national accounts are fundamental indicators of tanzania’s
development, and reliable data are critical for assessing progress in the implementation
of growth strategies. the national bureau of statistics (nbs) periodically undertakes
a systematic review of gdP estimates and, in 2007, the nbs produced an updated
set of estimates based on 2001 prices. the previous set of estimates was based on
1992 prices. the changes affect estimates in absolute terms as well as the share of
individual sectors in total gdP (see table 1).
total gdP (at factor cost) for 2001 using the 1992 benchmark was estimated to
be tshs 7,625 million, compared with tshs 8,396 million for that year using the
2001 benchmark, representing a change of 10%. the share of the agricultural sector
declined 18%, mainly due to a reduction in the crop sub-sector, as a result of revisions
in crop prices. this implies that, at some point between 1992 and 2001, crop prices in
the 1992 series had been overestimated. the industrial sector (mining and quarrying,
manufacturing, electricity, water and construction) increased by 32%, wholesale
trade, retail trade, hotel and restaurants by 51%, transport and communications by
62%, while financial intermediation declined by 29%.
Table 1: GDP Estimates for 2001 (at factor cost) at 1992 and 2001 Prices,
by Economic Activity
Economic Activity
2001 GDP (Million TShs)
1992 Price 2001 Prices change
% Change
agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing 3,406,146 2,779,320 (626,826) (18)
industry and construction 1,215,091 1,605,968 390,877 32
wholesale and retail trade, hotels and
restaurants
Chapter I CLUSter 1
926,870 1,398,071 471,201 51
transport and communications 361,558 586,455 224,897 62
financial intermediation 197,989 140,000 (57,989) (29)
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