Poverty and Human Development Report 2009 - UNDP in Tanzania

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POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2009 Figure 9: Net Enrolment Rate in Primary Education, 2003 – 2008 (with MKUKUTA Target for 2010) Net enrolment rate (%) 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 88.5 90.5 94.8 96.1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Years 2008 2009 MKUKUTA Target 2010 Sources: Poverty and Human Development Report (PHDR) 2007 (Research and Analysis Working Group (RAWG), 2007) and MoEVT, 2009 Gender parity data for primary schooling have been consistently good. Parity has been reached at national level, though girls in some regions still face difficulties in completing the primary cycle. However, some discrepancies exist in enrolment data for primary education. In MoEVT’s Basic Education Statistics in Tanzanian (BEST) – Regional Statistics 2007, over one-third of districts reported 100% net enrolment, but more detailed figures reveal that NERs of over 100% were recorded and rounded down. Therefore, in these districts more 7-13 year olds were reported to be enrolled than the projected number of 7-13 year olds in the district. 26 NERs of 100% were also in all the districts in Manyara region, where pastoralism and agro-pastoralism predominate, and where neighbouring districts with similar socio-economic characteristics show significantly lower enrolment rates. Significantly, too, the HBS 2007 reports data about school attendance, rather than just enrolment. Results show a dramatic improvement in attendance rates compared with HBS 2000/01, with total attendance at 83.8% up from 58.7%. Rates for girls are slightly better than for boys, except in Dar es Salaam. Nonetheless, this implies that almost one in five pupils is not attending school at any one time 27 – which challenges any complacency based on the positive enrolment data. Understanding non-attendance is critical for achieving education targets and for addressing the broader equity goals of MKUKUTA. Children most at risk of not being enrolled, not attending 26 Previous PHDRs pointed out the problems with age related data – in particular the extrapolations from population census data. 27 Concerns exist about the question asked in the HBS which could have multiple interpretations: ‘Is (name of child) currently in school?’ could include anyone having been formally enrolled but never attended, to a single day’s absence due to illness when the survey was carried out. 42 97.3 97.2 95.9 99
CLUSTER II- GOAL 1 and/or not completing primary school will include the most vulnerable children – the disabled, 28 those living in remote areas, and children for which the opportunity cost of attending school is high. Percentage of Primary Cohort Completing Standard VII The cohort completion rate has dropped from 78% in 2006 to 62.5% in 2008, and a significant turnaround is required if the MKUKUTA target of 90% is to be reached. Improvements in routine and survey data collection are needed to better inform strategies to improve retention and completion: � BEST captures only limited data on reasons for dropping out of school. In 2008, 69.5% of children dropping out of school were recorded as doing so because of truancy29 , but BEST provides no further information about what caused truancy. � HBS 2007 records reasons for non-attendance amongst 7-13 year olds. Positively, nonattendance because ‘school is too expensive’ has declined to 5% from 11.7% in HBS 2000/01. In addition, non-attendance by children ‘who are too old or who have already completed’ jumped from 4.2% to 48.9%, because more children are starting school at the requisite age or earlier (DPG, 2008). The biggest change is among rural children. Both of these improvements are attributable to the Primary Education Development Programme (PEDP). However, an increase in children reporting that ‘school is useless/uninteresting’ is a worrying development – this proportion increased by almost 5 percentage points nationally while in Dar es Salaam it increased from 2.3% to 24.3%. Research to explore these widespread perceptions of school would be valuable, to ascertain if school is viewed this way due to a lack of connection between what is taught and skills development for youth to secure livelihoods. Percentage of Students Passing the Primary School Leaving Examination The percentage of students passing the primary school leaving examination (PSLE) has fluctuated significantly in recent years, as illustrated by Figure 10. The sharp drop in 2007 was reportedly due to syllabus changes and tighter invigilation. The 2008 data suggests that 2005 and 2006 figures were probably anomalous. Reaching the MKUKUTA target will require a significant effort. 28 According to BEST 2008, a little under 35,000 children in primary schools had some kind of disability, about 0.4% of the school population (MoEVT, 2008a). This figure has now dropped to 27,500. The 2008 Disability Survey found 4 out of 10 children of official primary age attending school, but less than 2% of these children are attending a special school. In addition, 16% of disabled children reported that they were refused entry into educational systems (Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MoHSW), 2009). 29 Absolute numbers of truants has declined but the percentage of pupils dropping out for reason of truancy has increased. 43
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UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA POVERTY
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COnTEnTS List of Tables ...........
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MKUKUTA Cluster II: CONteNts Improv
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CONteNts Data.for.Monitoring.......
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CONteNts HOUSEHOLD OCCUPATION AND P
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Table 25: Table 26: Percent of Adul
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Figure 21: Figure 22: Percentage of
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LisT Of AbbREViATiONs AIDS Acquired
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PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Pap
Page 21 and 22: ExECUTIvE SUMMARy The Poverty and H
Page 23 and 24: in poverty. Nonetheless, the challe
Page 25 and 26: evise allocations based on identifi
Page 27 and 28: Monitoring Implications A comprehen
Page 29: eXeCUtiVe sUMMarY Good governance a
Page 33 and 34: Chapter Progress towards the goals
Page 35 and 36: GDP Growth by Sector the principal
Page 37 and 38: Figure 2: Sectoral Contribution to
Page 39 and 40: Chapter I CLUSter 1 Box 2: The Impa
Page 41 and 42: Household Income (Consumption) Pove
Page 43 and 44: Income Poverty and GDP Growth the 2
Page 45 and 46: although global oil and food prices
Page 47 and 48: Figure 6: FDI Inflows 2000-2008 (US
Page 49 and 50: orrow from outside tanzania, where
Page 51 and 52: Infrastructure Roads the condition
Page 53 and 54: quantity but also in quality. for i
Page 55 and 56: Chapter I CLUSter 1 GOaL 4 & 5 prop
Page 57 and 58: Customers Connected to Sources of E
Page 59 and 60: Cluster I Conclusions and Policy Im
Page 61 and 62: MKUKUTA INDICATORS - SUMMARY OF DAT
Page 63 and 64: Indicator Baseline Trend Target MKU
Page 69 and 70: MKUKUTA Cluster II: Improvement of
Page 71: Regional variations in enrolment ha
Page 75 and 76: Pupil/Teacher Ratio Overall, the pu
Page 77 and 78: provision of housing, funding for w
Page 79 and 80: CLUSTER II- GOAL 1 Table 11: Primar
Page 81 and 82: Table 12: Benefit Incidence Analysi
Page 83 and 84: Figure 15: Infant and Under-Five Mo
Page 85 and 86: Figure 17: Prevalence of Malaria in
Page 87 and 88: Figure 19: Percentage of Children U
Page 89 and 90: Table 13: Indicators of Malnutritio
Page 91 and 92: CLUSTER II- GOAL 2 Ghana (Edmond et
Page 93 and 94: Figure 24: Percentage of Births Tak
Page 95 and 96: Figure 26: HIV Prevalence by Age Gr
Page 97 and 98: Figure 28: Projected Number of Adul
Page 99 and 100: Projections based on the model indi
Page 101 and 102: Access to Healthcare Services On th
Page 103 and 104: Health Services Development Strateg
Page 105 and 106: Figure 34: Access to Clean and Safe
Page 110 and 111: POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPOR
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POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPOR
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MKUKUTA INDICATORS - SUMMARY OF DAT
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Target Indicator Baseline Trend MKU
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Sources: a = various sources as ind
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Indicator Baseline Trend Target MKU
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Chapter 2 An AnAlysis of household
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Composition of Consumption Consumpt
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the poverty line basket was valued
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Figure 50: Daily Caloric Intake per
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Figure 52: Poverty Incidence Curves
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Food share typically, a drop in the
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Liters per Adult Equivalent Kilogra
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Kilograms per Adult Equivalent 6 5
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Consumer Durables data from the hBs
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Additional data from the tanzania h
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Table 41: Percent of All Households
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Table 44: Percent of Males and Fema
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Table 46: Distribution of Household
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Conclusion Chapter 2 income poverty
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pOVertY aND hUMaN DeVeLOpMeNt repOr
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Chapter 2 Hoogeveen, J. & Ruhinduka
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Poverty and Human Development Report 2009 - UNDP in Tanzania

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