Poverty and Human Development Report 2009 - UNDP in Tanzania

pOVertY aND hUMaN DeVeLOpMeNt repOrt 2009
digits, and trade and fiscal deficits remained high. average lending rates by commercial banks are
also high, negatively affecting borrowers, while interest rates on savings are extremely low.
the current financial and economic turmoil adds to the challenge of maintaining macroeconomic
stability. thus far, the tanzanian economy has proved resilient to these exogenous shocks, buoyed
by increased public investment, partly supported by continued high levels of international aid.
some capital intensive development projects have been postponed and the gdP growth rate is
projected to fall to 5% in 2009, but growth is expected to recover to over 7% by 2011.
to sustain and accelerate economic growth and reach national poverty reduction targets in
the Millennium development goals and vision 2025, continued investment, both domestic and
foreign, is needed to enable tanzania to fully exploit its comparative advantages and propel
domestic productivity and income. without greater productivity gains and sound investments
in physical and human capital, further external shocks could jeopardise tanzania’s economic
growth. a focused growth strategy with disciplined public spending, together with an enabling
regulatory environment for the private sector will be essential in the decade ahead.
Cluster I Implications for Monitoring
revision of indicators for growth and income poverty may be desirable to ensure they provide
reliable evidence of national economic trends. gdP figures have sometimes been insensitive to
major shocks in the economy, such as drought, suggesting possible shortfalls in the compilation
of national accounts. Many reasons may contribute to this, including capacity constraints in
techniques of sampling and data processing, outdated business registers, infrequent data
collection and low response rates. some economic sectors are also not adequately covered
in surveys. in addition, institutional constraints – including lack of resources at the nbs and
insufficient collaboration of key institutions – need to be addressed.
collection and reporting of data for the following indicators is also recommended: in the external
sector, indicators for imports and reserves; in the fiscal sector, data on government expenditure;
and in the financial sector, exchange rates as well as indicators for monetary and capital market
developments.
lastly, rationalisation of indicators across major national surveys will facilitate analysis of trends.
one clear example is unemployment; household budget surveys adopt an international definition,
while the labour force surveys report details based on a national definition, which is more inclusive
of those who are not actively looking for work but are available for work, and those with marginal
attachment to their employment.
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