Poverty and Human Development Report 2009 - UNDP in Tanzania

POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2009
Goal 2
52
Improved Survival, Health and Well-being of All
Children and Women and Especially Vulnerable Groups
This section presents the latest information on indicators for health and nutrition, beginning with
data on life expectancy. It draws upon new data from the Tanzania HIV and Malaria Indicator
Survey (THMIS) 2007/08, the Household Budget Survey 2007, and updated figures from routine
administrative data systems. The analysis also examines human resources in the health sector,
and discusses trends in utilisation of, and satisfaction with healthcare services.
MKUKUTA’s goal for health and accompanying indicators focus on those groups who bear a
disproportionate burden of disease and have greater need for health care – girls and women of
reproductive age and young children. The indicators are:
• Infant
mortality rate
• Under-five mortality rate
• Immunisation coverage for diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus and hepatitis B (DPTHb3)
• Proportion of under-fives moderately or severely stunted (height for age)
• Maternal mortality ratio
• Proportion of births attended by a skilled health worker
• HIV prevalence among 15-24 year olds
• Percentage of persons with advanced HIV infection receiving anti-retroviral (ARV)
combination therapy
• Tuberculosis (TB) treatment completion rate
Life Expectancy
According to the official projections by the National Bureau of Statistics, life expectancy was
expected to reach 53 years for men and 56 years for women by 2008. However, these projections
may be well below actual gains, mainly because HIV prevalence and under-five mortality are
lower than assumptions used in the NBS projection model. Information from the demographic
surveillance system in Rufiji also suggests that life expectancy increased by five years for men
and eight years for women between 1999/2000 and 2006/7. It is perfectly plausible that revised
projections using updated assumptions about mortality and HIV would put life expectancy for
men in the late fifties and about 60 years for women.
Infant and Under-Five Mortality
Data from THMIS 2007/8 show continuing declines in infant and under-five mortality (Figure 15).
The changes in under-five mortality from 1999 to 2004/5 and from 2004/5 to 2007/8 are both
statistically significant. This is extremely good news and confirms the analysis in PHDR 2007 that
a steep decline in mortality occurred over the period 2000-2004 (Masanja, et al., 2008). The trend
in under-five mortality since 1999 indicates that Tanzania is on track to reach the MKUKUTA
target in 2010, and the MDG target in 2015 is also within reach (Figure 16)