Poverty and Human Development Report 2009 - UNDP in Tanzania

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pOVertY aND hUMaN DeVeLOpMeNt repOrt 2009 digits, and trade and fiscal deficits remained high. average lending rates by commercial banks are also high, negatively affecting borrowers, while interest rates on savings are extremely low. the current financial and economic turmoil adds to the challenge of maintaining macroeconomic stability. thus far, the tanzanian economy has proved resilient to these exogenous shocks, buoyed by increased public investment, partly supported by continued high levels of international aid. some capital intensive development projects have been postponed and the gdP growth rate is projected to fall to 5% in 2009, but growth is expected to recover to over 7% by 2011. to sustain and accelerate economic growth and reach national poverty reduction targets in the Millennium development goals and vision 2025, continued investment, both domestic and foreign, is needed to enable tanzania to fully exploit its comparative advantages and propel domestic productivity and income. without greater productivity gains and sound investments in physical and human capital, further external shocks could jeopardise tanzania’s economic growth. a focused growth strategy with disciplined public spending, together with an enabling regulatory environment for the private sector will be essential in the decade ahead. Cluster I Implications for Monitoring revision of indicators for growth and income poverty may be desirable to ensure they provide reliable evidence of national economic trends. gdP figures have sometimes been insensitive to major shocks in the economy, such as drought, suggesting possible shortfalls in the compilation of national accounts. Many reasons may contribute to this, including capacity constraints in techniques of sampling and data processing, outdated business registers, infrequent data collection and low response rates. some economic sectors are also not adequately covered in surveys. in addition, institutional constraints – including lack of resources at the nbs and insufficient collaboration of key institutions – need to be addressed. collection and reporting of data for the following indicators is also recommended: in the external sector, indicators for imports and reserves; in the fiscal sector, data on government expenditure; and in the financial sector, exchange rates as well as indicators for monetary and capital market developments. lastly, rationalisation of indicators across major national surveys will facilitate analysis of trends. one clear example is unemployment; household budget surveys adopt an international definition, while the labour force surveys report details based on a national definition, which is more inclusive of those who are not actively looking for work but are available for work, and those with marginal attachment to their employment. 30
MKUKUTA INDICATORS – SUMMARY OF DATA AND TARGETS MKUKUTA Cluster I: Growth and Reduction of Income Poverty notes to readers: • Meta-data on each indicators (including definitions, sources and frequency) are available in the MKUKUta Monitoring Master Plan available at www.povertymonitoring.go.tz • The symbol X indicates no data for that year (in most cases because data is dependent on a particular type of survey) • Blanks indicate data not yet forthcoming from Mda or lga Indicator Baseline Trend Target MKUKUTA 2010 Next data point Estimate Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Cluster-wide indicators 17 gdP growth per annum (%) a 4.9 2000 6.0 7.2 6.9 7.8 7.4 6.7 7.1 7.4 end 2009 6-8% 4.5 2000 4.9 4.9 3.1 5.9 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.6 end 2009 10% gdP growth per annum (%) by sector a - agriculture (crops, livestock, hunting and forestry) - livestock 3.9 2000 4.0 2.8 2.2 4.1 4.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 end 2009 9% - Manufacturing 4.8 2000 5.0 7.5 9.0 9.4 9.6 8.5 8.7 9.9 end 2009 15% - Mining and quarrying 14.3 2000 13.9 16.9 17.1 16.0 16.1 15.6 10.7 2.5 end 2009 3% 18 not yet determined - wholesale trade, retail trade and repairs19 4.3 2000 6.4 8.3 9.7 5.8 6.7 9.5 9.8 10.0 end 2009 17 estimates of the national accounts have been revised from 1992 prices to 2001 prices. for this reason, figures reported for 2006 and earlier years may vary from those included in previous Phdrs and the MKUKUta status report 2006. 18 the MKUKUta target for this indicator is to increase the proportion of value added minerals in total minerals exported from 0.5% at the start of the MKUKUta period in 2005 to 3% by 2010. 19 in the Phdr 2007, the indicator reported was 'wholesale & retail trade'. 31
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UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA POVERTY
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COnTEnTS List of Tables ...........
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MKUKUTA Cluster II: CONteNts Improv
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CONteNts Data.for.Monitoring.......
Page 9 and 10: CONteNts HOUSEHOLD OCCUPATION AND P
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Page 15 and 16: LisT Of AbbREViATiONs AIDS Acquired
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Page 21 and 22: ExECUTIvE SUMMARy The Poverty and H
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Page 29: eXeCUtiVe sUMMarY Good governance a
Page 33 and 34: Chapter Progress towards the goals
Page 35 and 36: GDP Growth by Sector the principal
Page 37 and 38: Figure 2: Sectoral Contribution to
Page 39 and 40: Chapter I CLUSter 1 Box 2: The Impa
Page 41 and 42: Household Income (Consumption) Pove
Page 43 and 44: Income Poverty and GDP Growth the 2
Page 45 and 46: although global oil and food prices
Page 47 and 48: Figure 6: FDI Inflows 2000-2008 (US
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Page 51 and 52: Infrastructure Roads the condition
Page 53 and 54: quantity but also in quality. for i
Page 55 and 56: Chapter I CLUSter 1 GOaL 4 & 5 prop
Page 57 and 58: Customers Connected to Sources of E
Page 59: Cluster I Conclusions and Policy Im
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Page 69 and 70: MKUKUTA Cluster II: Improvement of
Page 71 and 72: Regional variations in enrolment ha
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Page 75 and 76: Pupil/Teacher Ratio Overall, the pu
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Page 79 and 80: CLUSTER II- GOAL 1 Table 11: Primar
Page 81 and 82: Table 12: Benefit Incidence Analysi
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Page 87 and 88: Figure 19: Percentage of Children U
Page 89 and 90: Table 13: Indicators of Malnutritio
Page 91 and 92: CLUSTER II- GOAL 2 Ghana (Edmond et
Page 93 and 94: Figure 24: Percentage of Births Tak
Page 95 and 96: Figure 26: HIV Prevalence by Age Gr
Page 97 and 98: Figure 28: Projected Number of Adul
Page 99 and 100: Projections based on the model indi
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POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPOR
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MKUKUTA INDICATORS - SUMMARY OF DAT
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Target Indicator Baseline Trend MKU
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Sources: a = various sources as ind
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Indicator Baseline Trend Target MKU
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Chapter 2 An AnAlysis of household
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Composition of Consumption Consumpt
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the poverty line basket was valued
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Figure 50: Daily Caloric Intake per
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Figure 52: Poverty Incidence Curves
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Food share typically, a drop in the
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Liters per Adult Equivalent Kilogra
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Kilograms per Adult Equivalent 6 5
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Consumer Durables data from the hBs
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Additional data from the tanzania h
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Table 41: Percent of All Households
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Table 44: Percent of Males and Fema
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Table 46: Distribution of Household
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Conclusion Chapter 2 income poverty
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pOVertY aND hUMaN DeVeLOpMeNt repOr
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Chapter 2 Hoogeveen, J. & Ruhinduka
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Poverty and Human Development Report 2009 - UNDP in Tanzania

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