STF NA MÍDIA

discussed that would help
protect them from a stronger
Tory performance. So the
Lib Dems find that, although
unpopular, they are still able
to look forward, emotionally
distance themselves from the
horrid Tories – and enjoy the
fruits of office.
Yet there is a barmy disconnect
about this conference
mood. The truth is that the
world economy is unwinding,
and Britain s very weak
economy is groaning under a
massive problem of unemployment,
under-training and
low investment. What follows
is going to be nasty,
angry and polarising.
On the right, they really mean
it. The Tory Eurosceptics
aren t joking when they call
for a pull back from the EU
and a referendum on our future
membership. They aren t
joking when they say the
human rights Act has to go,
and they aren t joking when
they call for the top rate of
tax to be abolished. They
think it s essential, and the
worse the recession, the more
urgently this agenda will be
pushed. What are the Lib
Dems going to do then? They
may have their little list of
further political demands to
help them in a 2015 general
election, but they will be
pushed aside if the Tories
move to the right, as I am
sure they will. The media
remains Tory enough in instinct
to row in behind the
rightward shift and the Lib
Dems will start to feel very
isolated. All the extra money
printed by the Bank of England
won t be enough to
paper over those cracks.
Meanwhile, Labour s response
will be to demand proper
Keynesian action to boost
employment. As unemployment
rises, people will start
listening. The developing
agenda around mutuality,
support for communities and
solidarity inside Europe steals
much of what was once
Liberal thinking. A push is
coming from the left too, and
the angrier people get, the
better Labour will do.
There is only one, faint sign
that Lib Dems realise the
danger of being crushed between
two sharper ideological
reactions to bad times - and
that s their insistence on defending
the totemic 50p income
tax rate or replacing it
with something equally tough
on the rich. The 50p tax
may not raise much extra
money, but it s of huge political
importance as a signal
that the coalition does not
intend to reward the rich and
make the majority take the
strain.
But totems won t be enough.
Lib Dems complain people
aren t paying enough attention
to those taken out of tax at
the bottom, or giving them
enough credit for "fairness".
That s because the really big
decisions, on the deficit and
letting unemployment rise,
simply swamp the smaller
ones.
And the Lib Dems are today
the party of the big, Tory,
decisions as well as the smaller,
Lib Dem ones. Danny
Alexander sounds like George
Osborne s messenger because
that s what he is. No,
this isn t a Tory government.
No, the Tories didn t win a
majority. But it s a Tory-led
government, a Torydominated
government and
out there, away from the conference
bubble, everyone
knows it. Lib Dems are enjoying
power. They will find
the price has been high. And
like a maxed-out credit card,
the bill is in the post.
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