Prognosemetoder – en oversikt - Telenor

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ønsker å benytte disse metodene for sine kostnadsberegninger. Referanser 1 Wright, T P. Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of Aeronautic Sciences, 3(4), 122–128, 1936. 2 Crawford, J R. Learning curve, ship curve, ratios, related data. Lockheed Aircraft Corporation, 1944. Tabell 8.1 Lærekurveklassen med K verdier for henholdsvis optimistiske og pessimistiske anslag Lærekurveklasse K I Optiske kabler 85/75 II Optiske passive komponenter 75/70 III Sendere og mottakere 80/73 IV Elektroniske komponenter 80/73 V Innbygde komponenter 95/90 VI Installasjoner 105/95 VII Byggtekniske komponenter 105/95 VIII Kopperkabler 103/98 Tabell 8.2 Volumklasse med parametrene n r (0) og ∆T Volumklasse n r (0) ∆T Vol.klasse1 0,5 5,00 Vol.klasse2 0,1 5,00 Vol.klasse3 0,01 5,00 Vol.klasse4 0,5 10,00 Vol.klasse5 0,1 10,00 Vol.klasse6 0,01 10,00 Vol.klasse7 0,01 50,00 Figur 8.1 Oppdelingen av programvaren i tre deler 172 Geometri Arkitektur Tjenester Gjennomslag Takster Økonomi MAIN TITAN Kostnader Volum COSTDB 3 de Jong, J R. The effects of increasing size on cycle time and its consequence on time standards. Ergonomics, V1, 51–60, 1957. 4 Yelle, L E. The learning curve: historical review and comprehensive survey. Decision Sciences, 10(2), 302–328, 1979. 5 Stordahl, K, Hjelkrem, C, Bøe, J. Regresjonsmodeller. Telektronikk 90(1), 87–102, 1994 (denne utgave). 6 CCITT. GAS 10 Handbook. Data acquisition and forecasting methods for telecommunication planning. 1987. 7 Olsen, B T et al. Tool for introduction scenarios and techno-economic studies for the access network from RACE 2087/TITAN. Proceedings of RACE Open Workshop on Broadband Access, June 93. Nijmegen, Nederland, 1993. 8 Zaganiaris, A et al. A methodology for achieving life cycle costs of optical access networks from RACE 2087/TITAN. Proceedings of the Eleventh Annual Conference on European Fibre Optic Communications and Networks (EFOC&N), June 93. Haag, Nederland, 1993. 9 Zaganiaris, A et al. Life cycle costs and economical budget of optical access networks from RACE 2087/TITAN. Proceedings of the IEEE/5th Conference on Optical/ Hybrid Access Networks, September 93. Montreal, Canada, 1993. Appendiks Betrakt den relative prognosefunksjonen for volum (A.1) nr (t )= 1 + e a+bt ( ) −1 Sett inn for t = 0 nr (0)= 1 + e a ( ) −1 Dette gir a = ln(nr (0) -1 - 1) (A.2) Sett inn definisjonen for t 2 og t 1 i likning (A.1) slik at n r (t 2 ) = 0,9 og n r (t 1 ) = 0,1. Dette gir etter litt regning: (A.3) (A.4) Ved å dele disse på hverandre får vi e (A.5) bt2−t ( 1) 1 = 9 2 Videre kan vi skrive: t2 − t 2ln9 1 = − b som gir: 2ln9 ∆T = − b eller ea e bt2 = 1 9 e a e bt 1 = 9 2ln9 b = − ∆T (A.6) (A.7) (A.8) a og b kan da innføres i (A.1) som gir: ln(nr(0) nr (t )= 1 + e −1−1)− 2ln9 ∆T t −1 ⎡ ⎧ ⎫ ⎤ ⎢ ⎨ ⎬ ⎩ ⎭ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎣ ⎦
Abstract 1 Introduction Scenarios for introduction of broadband services in telecommunication networks BY ROLF B HAUGEN AND BENTE MANNSÅKER There are large activities world-wide to specify and experiment with broadband networks and services. At the moment most people believe that the broadband network of the future will be based on ATM technology, and switching manufacturers and research institutions are making detailed plans for how ATM technically is to be incorporated into next generation’s systems and networks. But the crucial question for the PNOs is how to economically introduce a B-ISDN concept; it is a fact that, except for CATV, there is really no broadband service that at the moment is attractive enough to pay for the enormous investments necessary. We discuss in this paper two types of broadband services: video related services and data network services, the former type being the traditionally discussed end user services, whereas the latter is the aggregation of services from several users connected to various types of local networks. We argue that the data network services will be the driving force towards a broadband network and discuss some scenarios from broadband islands towards a B-ISDN. Broadband services have been very much discussed, and even experimented with, during the last couple of decades. Some services, like cable TV, have found their implementations in dedicated networks. Others, like picture phone and video conferences, have been introduced in the public telephone networks by digital coding (compression) of the video signals to smaller bandwidths. But, except for this recent breakthrough in compression techniques, there is still no real broadband service offered in public networks that can be said to run on sound economical terms. In Europe, there has been a tremendous effort the last five years to specify a public broadband network as well as to initiate the development of components and subsystems that would make such networks cost effective. Several long term EC projects have been established to this end; RACE being the most influential within the telecommunications area. By now, the evolving broadband network, B-ISDN, based on ATM technique seems to be rather well defined and agreed upon among telecom operators. But one thing is specification of a network, another is cost effective implementation; i.e. at prices that subscribers can afford. Needless to say, the subscriber loop is the overwhelming bottleneck. Optical fibres in the subscriber loop are considered to be a prerequisite for broadband services. For business users fibre connections are today, economically spoken, within reach; in fact, medium and large companies might already be connected to the public network via fibre cables. This is by no means the case for residential subscribers and small firms. For these categories the cost of installing optical fibres are still an order of magnitude larger than with ordinary copper cables. And for residential users, most PNOs (Public Network Operators) are for political/regulatory reasons excluded from offering the most popular broadband service of today, namely cable TV. An integration of TV and tele services on the same cable might have rendered a fibre optical solution into residential homes cost effective in the near future. The RACE project TITAN is developing computerized tools for calculating (life cycle) costs of optical access networks. With this tool the network planners can extract detailed estimates of total and partial fibering of the local loop as a function of the years up to and beyond year 2000. In the computer program there are forecasting models for service demands and prices of the various network components. Services that will be driving forces for the PNOs to start implementing broadband networks can be divided into two classes - video related services - data network services. The first class contains services of the type: video telephony, video conferences, TV distribution, multimedia communications, etc. These services typically direct themselves to one, or at least a limited number of end users. To offer videophone or TV distribution services there must be a broadband connection all the way to the end user. That is what makes these types of services hard to offer in the public networks. The other class of services is of the type: LAN-LAN interconnect, high capacity main frame communication (Cray), etc. These types of services direct themselves towards clusters of users that are hooked on to local networks, hence the “users” are often LANs. And it is the aggregation of traffic that creates a need for broadband solutions rather than the demand from single users. To begin with, attention was directed towards the first class of users; in fact, the very notion of B-ISDN somehow leads our minds towards an end user concept. Hence, most broadband services that were experimented with throughout the eighties were of this type, and there was, and perhaps still is, an increasing frustration for not being able to bring these services to the customers at prices they would be willing to pay. But it is the second class of services that presently “takes off” and requires solutions. Up to now, inter-networking solutions have mostly been provided by bridges and routers that are interconnected by leased lines. More recently, solutions like Frame Relay, MAN (Metropolitan Area Network), ISDN and even ATM are being discussed. From a PNO’s point of view, the latter type of solutions are by far the more interesting. Could intra-LAN traffic be transported in the switched (public) network? And which type of the above mentioned network solutions have the potential to evolve into the broadband network of the future? These are the questions many PNOs are discussing today. They all know that there are tremendous revenue potentials in the multimedia revolution that will eventually come, a revolution that is just waiting for cheap network solutions. On the other 621.39.05 173
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Innhold TEMA: Introduksjon, Kjell S
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1 Utvikling av prognosearbeidet i T
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- Prognoser for vanlig telefonabonn
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De økonomiske beregninger som ligg
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ment fra bedrifter. I tillegg er de
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Tele-hjemmearbeid Kommunikasjon mel
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observasjoner, fordi det er en ny t
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1.nyttårsdag (x 10 000) 400 350 30
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20 dere med antall abonnenter. niv
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Indeks 220 200 180 160 140 120 100
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menes at det statistisk ikke er tro
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klassiske prognosemetoden i den fø
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Tabell 6.3 Tidsrekker med forskjell
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38 7.3 Enkel modellbygging Utgangsp
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Når vi bruker minste kvadraters me
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e t 0 99.9 Figur 7.13 Plott av resi
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58 53 48 43 38 33 28 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -
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sjonene eller utviklingen til y. Va
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det kommunisere med. Dermed blir tj
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1 og ved t med (1 - b) og summerer
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i etterspørselen i påfølgende m
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aggregerte prognosen er riktig. Ned
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prognosene vil med sikkerhet ikke v
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skyld, er lite, vil det også være
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Ed: O D Anderson. Amsterdam, North
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54 Diverse enkeltpersoner 16 Televe
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Figur 3.3 Innhenting av informasjon
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58 Selvbetjening over telenettet Tj
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60 Det kan være vanskelig med noen
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62 I TITAN-prosjektet ble det foret
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64 Prosentandel av husstander 25 20
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66 I N E T T E T Annullerte bestill
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(x 100) 22 17 12 68 7 2 -3 01/87 +
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periodene, skyldes at dette skjules
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72 “givende” sentralen til den
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74 spesielt er opptatt av forklarin
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001.18:621.39 76 Glattingsmodeller
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78 Tabell 2 De opprinnelige sesongo
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80 0.025 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005 y' t
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Tabell 3 Holts metode 82 År t Anta
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Tabell 5 Hvordan Holt-Winters addit
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(x 100) 20 15 10 86 5 0 antall abon
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Abonnement 540 520 500 480 460 88 n
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90 ingsprosedyre som skal iterere s
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92 forbedringer av modellen. Plott
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94 Vi ser av (5.12) at variansen ti
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96 Figur 7.2 Residualer fra lineær
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98 Tabellen viser at alle parameter
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disse til å lage prognoser med. So
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102 16 Bøe, J, Stordahl, K. Teller
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200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Fi
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106 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 0.8 0.6 0
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108 Tabell 2 viser de historiske da
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001.18:621.39 110 Box-Jenkins metod
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Standardavvik 600 550 500 450 400 S
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114 AR-parametre og q MA-parametre
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116 Figur 13 Autokorrelasjonsfunksj
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118 Korrelasjonsverdi Vi ser av fig
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120 Aksepter hypotesen om at parame
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Page 146 and 147: Tabell 1 Oversikt over takstklassen
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Page 158 and 159: 158 3.1 Vurderinger av foreliggende
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Page 164 and 165: 164 (x1000) 10 8 6 4 2 0 Tabell 6 I
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Page 180 and 181: 180 References 1 Mannsåker, B et a
Page 182 and 183: 182 Table of contents page Introduc
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Page 196 and 197: 006 196 Introduction EURESCOM is an
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