of Microprocessors

21
Future
Frequently, when glvmg talks at computer shows and technical society
meetings, I am asked what the future holds in the field of electronic and
computer music synthesis. The reply is often prefaced with the observation
that short-range technology predictions, i. e., in the 2-1O-year range, are
usually overly optimistic, while longer-range predictions are often woefully
short of the mark. In effect, the evolution of technology given a relatively
stable base of underlying scientific knowledge is regulated primaril'y by
economic factors, while revolutionary changes are driven by scientific breakthroughs
that are inherently unpredictable.
For example, short-range predictions in 1940 about future technology
in electric power generation were likely incorrect due to economic effects of
the war. Meanwhile, nobody foresaw the development of nuclear power that
occurred after the war, and most certainly none foresaw its present decline. In
the early 1950s, it was said that only a handful of computers would ever be
built because there would never be a general need for computation. Yet 20
years later, tens of thousands were in use by every medium- to large-sized
company, university, and research laboratory in the country, and today, more
than 30 years later, they number in the millions with no end in sight. Of
course, many predictions are just plain wrong, regardless of the time scale. In
1973, shortly after the 8008 microprocessor was introduced, an industry
spokesman claimed that microprocessors would never do much more than
control traffic lights and certainly wouldn't have enough power to run
programming languages like BASIC. Yet, less than a year later, the 8008 was
running BASIC and even APL, a much more complex language.
There are at least four differeqt approaches or mindsets one can take in
making predictions and not all are the result of conscious, rational thought.
First, one might take the "philosophical" approach in which the predictions
made represent what the predictor thinks should happen to best serve society.
The "wishful-thinking" approach is based on an unconscious hope that, by
making a certain prediction, the chance of it actually happening is increased.
This is seen most often in business and economic forecasting, particularly by
the government in power. A group of people given significant time and
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