of Microprocessors

788 MUSICAL ApPLICATIONS OF MICROPROCESSORS
powerful computers allows nearly anyone who wishes, to write software and
build hardware to test some new idea the individual may have thought of
Translation of viable ideas into products is easier now than ever whether a
new company is started for the purpose or an established one is approached.
It is the expansion of knowledge that drives exponential growth of all
technology and will surely continue to apply to musical technology as well.
So now it is time to get out the old silicon dioxide sphere and make
some predictions for the next 10 years. One must, of course, assume that no
major political or economic disruptions will occur in the meantime. Ten
years from now it will be interesting to see how accurate these prognostications
prove to be.
The Predictions
In analog components, look for continued gradual improvement in
general-purpose op-amp performance and less of a price differential for
premium-performance units. Someone will introduce a comprehensive line of
digitally controlled analog functions including oscillators, amplifiers, and
filters in which the digital side will interface directly with a microprocessor
bus. Another company will introduce a large-scale mixed analog-digital chip
that performs almost exactly like the dual voice board used in the Chroma
synthesizer described in Chapter 19 but is programmed much like the SID
chip described in Chapter 20. Finally, somebody will offer a hex or octal
voltage follower op-amp in a 14- or 18-pin IC package.
In memory components, 1 Mbit RAM chips will be introduced in 1987
or 1988. While American manufacturers talk about putting these in some
strange new package because the chip is too big to fit a standard DIP,
Japanese manufacturers will introduce theirs in a standard IS-pin DIP that is
pinned to be compatible with current 16-pin DIP-packaged 256K RAMs.
Look also for 256K X 4-bit organization in a 22-pin DIP and a
"pseudostatic" 64K X 16-bit device in a 40-pin SMT package. EPROMs
with a 64K X 16-bit organization should also be introduced. Grave
problems will be encountered while developing 4M bit RAMs so these are
not likely to be available at all until 1993. The solution will be larger chip
sizes made practical by virtually defect-free silicon crystals grown in space.
Pricing of each generation will remain about the same at the chip level,
which means that, by the early 1990s, read/write memory will be 1/16 of its
1985 cost. That lK X 16-bit waveform table will then cost less than 2 cents
to store in RAM or 1 cent to store in ROM.
No really new developments are expected in 8-bit microprocessors,
although construction of current designs in CMOS and higher available clock
rates will become the norm. Even so, 8-bit units will descend to the status of
current 4-bit devices and continue to sell in large quantities. Current 16-bit
microprocessors will become so cheap (less than $5) that they will be used in