US Marine Corps - The Black Vault

182 Amphibians Came To Conqrzer
The Army G-2 (Chief of Intelligence) had written, as late as 1 November
1941, that Japan would attack Siberia when the ratio of Japanese troops in
Kwantung Province, Manchuria, to Soviet Union troops in Siberia reached
3 to 1, and suggested steps to help China and the Soviet Union.” It is
believed correct to say that, at this time, the Director of War Plans thought
the attack would not take place unless Germany defeated the Soviets in the
West. Such a defeat was in the really questionable stage by I November
1941.
By 27 November 1941, when Rear Admiral Turner participated with
many others in the drafting of the memorandum for the President to be
signed by General Marshall and Admiral Stark, he found no problem in
concurring with the statement:
There is little probability of an immediate Japanese attack on the Maritime
Provinces. . . .
WHO HAS THE BALL? INTELLIGENCE OR WAR PLANS?
Over the years, and occasionally in print, there has been much made of
the fact that the Director of Naval Intelligence had to work through the
Director of War Plans in sending out to the Commander in Chief of the
Pacific Fleet:
specific information, which information might require action by our Fleet or
by our naval forces.
The Director of Naval Intelligence said this system was required so that
this information
would not be in conflict with his [the DWPS] understanding of the naval
situation, and the operations for which he was responsible.ss
This requirement irritated greatly some of the second echelon officers in
the Office of Naval Intelligence. They objected both to the Navy system
which channeled political action initiating intelligence through the War
Plans Office, and to the strong-minded officer who occupied the billet of
Director of War Plans.
As for the Navy system, Admiral Ingersoll pointed out:
Our organization was not like Military Intelligence and that the estimate of
the situation should be prepared by the War Plans Division, although the data
“ Hearings, part 14, p. 1361,
m (a) A. A. Hoehling, The Week Before Pea~[ Harbor (New York: W. W. Norton & Co,,
1963), p. 61; (b) Pearl Harbor Heai’ingr, part 11, p. 5364.