An Ocean Blueprint for the 21st Century - California Ocean ...

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYMore than thirty years ago, the StrattonCommission identified growing populationpressures on the coasts as a major reason forincreased federal government attention to managingthe resources of the coasts, oceans and Great Lakes.Socio-economic changes have continued to affect thenation’s oceans and coasts over the three decadessince the Stratton Commission report, but in muchmore complex ways than simple population growthalone. More people live on and near the coasts, but itis population growth away from the coast that maybe the greatest cause for concern. Population growthnear the coast is being outstripped by even fasteremployment growth, and in industries which appearclean but whose cumulative effects on the environmentare significant.The ocean has always been an important part ofthe economic life of the nation, but this too is undergoingdramatic change. Economic activity associatedwith the ocean contributed more than $200 billion tothe U.S. economy in 2000, but employment in suchtraditional marine industries as fishing and marinetransportation is declining, while employment intourism and recreation industries is exploding. Someindustries, such as ocean minerals and maritimetransportation are producing more with feweremployees, while others such as commercial fishingare declining in both output and employment.Changes in the socio-economic environmentaffecting the nation’s oceans and coasts are essentialto any consideration of public policy. This is so forthree reasons:1. Changes in how people use the ocean and coastshave profound effects on the natural resources.2. The changes in the resources feed back tochanges in the demographic and economic usesaltering our uses and perceptions of the coastsand oceans.3. To manage a resource you must manage the peoplewho use it. Whatever form it takes, policyaffects people’s behavior, and so how peopleinteract with the environment is the key to thefuture of the oceans.This report explores key changes in the socioeconomicenvironment of the nation’s oceans andcoasts using the latest data from the Census and aspecial study of the coastal and ocean economies ofthe United States prepared for the Commission bythe National Ocean Economics Project, an independentinvestigation of the national ocean economyfunded by NOAA and EPA. Major conclusions fromthis analysis include:1. The term “coast” requires precise definition formeasurement. The socio-economic definition ofthe coast includes at least three tiers, rangingfrom the near shore, the areas covered by statecoastal management programs, and the countiesthat include coastal watersheds.2. Population growth since 1970 in coastal watershedcounties exceeded 37.5 million people, butthis reflected the same rate of growth as thenation as a whole. This means that the coasts arenot the destination of disproportionately largegrowth, but the sheer increase in the populationon the same relative small land base still producesmajor effects.3. Population and housing growth is shifting inlandaway from the shoreline. Expensive real estateand past growth have resulted in slow growthnear the oceans and Great Lakes, while uplandareas have absorbed more of the growth over thepast decade and will likely continue to do so.4. The largest population growth has been alongthe Atlantic and Pacific coasts, but the fastestpopulation growth by far has been along thecoasts of the Gulf of Mexico. The Great Lakeshave seen a slight decline in population, buthousing growth has continued.5. Rural areas of the coast have seen much fastergrowth than urban areas. The farther from cities,the faster the population growth has been. Bothyear round and seasonal population and housinggrowth in rural counties have been substantial.6. The coastal economy is different from the oceaneconomy. The coastal economy is the sum of alleconomic activity taking place in the coastalarea, while the ocean economy is the economicactivity using the ocean as an input.7. While coastal populations have been growingconsistent with national trends, the coastal economyhas been growing faster. And while populationhas been growing more slowly near theshore than in the nation, the economy has beenC 2A N O CEAN B LUEPRINT FOR THE 21ST C ENTURY