An Ocean Blueprint for the 21st Century - California Ocean ...

ties. From 1970–2000, the number of housing unitsin rural coastal counties more than doubled (a 107%growth rate), while housing grew 63% in urbancounties over the same period. Smaller coastal zonecounties in urban regions saw very fast housinggrowth rates. Coastal zone counties at the fringe ofurban areas had the fastest rate of housing growth inany of the urban-rural county types, with an increaseof over 150% from 1970–2000.Two major factors drive these trends in housingrelative to population growth. A certain amount ofhousing growth is required for population growth,but a major factor is the falling size of U.S. households.In 1970 the average household consisted of3.14 persons; by 2000 this was reduced to 2.59 persons.(Bureau of the Census 2001) This change aloneaccounts for more than half of the growth in housing.Another factor that heavily influences rapidgrowth in coastal regions is the growth in seasonalhousing, which tends to be concentrated in ruralcounties.Summary of Population andHousing TrendsPopulation growth continues to place significantlyincreased pressure on coastal regions. Total populationgrowth has not been disproportionately locatedin coastal counties, but the sheer magnitude of thatgrowth on the limited land area of coastal regionscreates a much heavier “footprint” than in otherparts of the country. Population densities in coastalareas are two to three times as high as in the nationas a whole, reflecting both the attraction of the coastand the intensity of use.The population of coastal regions is shiftinginland, away from the shore and towards the uplandareas of coastal watersheds. This trend is mostnoticeable in the counties closest to the shore. Thefastest population growth is occurring in the countiesbordering the Gulf of Mexico, particularly inFlorida. The largest population growth has beenoccurring in the Pacific, particularly in California.Population growth has been occurring much morerapidly in rural coastal zone counties than urbancoastal zone counties, and in those counties at thefringe of urban regions.Housing growth exceeds population growth inthe coastal areas, especially in the Great Lakes regionand in rural coastal zone counties. This pattern ofgrowth puts stresses on natural resources well inexcess of that suggested by simple measurement ofpopulation growth. In 1969, the StrattonCommission noted that the pressures on the coastalzone were expanding seaward. While this is true, theexpansion of population pressures inland and awayfrom the urban areas may be the most importanttrend over the past thirty years. These trends willalmost certainly continue well into the future, sincethey reflect both fundamental economic forces suchas land value that affect where housing is affordable.Restoring and enhancing the nation’s coastalresources will require increased attention not only onthe land forms, such as the Big Sur coast ofCalifornia or the beaches of the Atlantic that formthe coast of the popular imagination. It will requireincreased attention on the less populated rural partsof the coast where change is occurring most rapidlyand on the upland areas of watersheds where theaccumulation of subtle changes are magnified in thewater rivers, streams, and lakes of the area as waterflows to the sea.C 8A N O CEAN B LUEPRINT FOR THE 21ST C ENTURY