CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY DAREN BOWYER JUST WAR DOCTRINE

issue central to its campaign. Some elements of the Western media suggested this was a
worrying development in that it represented the first incidence of Al Qaeda influencing
a Western election result. 166 Others have suggested it was more a case of electoral
antipathy towards the government’s handling of the investigation into the terrorist
attacks, in particular their apparent attempt to deflect blame onto the Basque separatist
movement ETA 167 . The higher than expected turnout would tend to support the view
that the Spanish were defying the terrorists rather than bowing to them. It therefore
seems reasonable to suppose, counterfactual hypothesis though it may be, that had there
been widespread support for the causes of the war, the Spanish people would have been
equally robust in defying the terrorists and voting for the PP.
In the UK, the consequences of the war were not as dramatic as in Spain but they were
still significant for the Labour Government, and for Tony Blair as Prime Minister, in
particular. Opposition to the war was significant, and far greater than in any conflict
since Suez, but not so overwhelming as in Spain. Yet still the decision to stand by the
US decision to invade Iraq, and indeed to be a major troop contributor to the coalition,
did great damage to the ruling Labour party. Its first electoral test came in June 2004
with local government elections in which Labour were forced into an unprecedented
third place, with just 26% of the vote * behind the Conservatives with 37% and the
Liberal Democrats (the only main party firmly to oppose the war) with 27% 168 . For
Labour this resulted in a net loss of 463 seats and control of 8 councils. Deputy Prime
Minister John Prescott acknowledged that the war in Iraq † was a significant factor, ‘a
cloud, or indeed a shadow, over these elections.’ 169 Similarly Prime Minister Tony
Blair said that ‘Iraq and worries over Iraq have been a shadow over our support.’ 170 The
principal factor identified by many commentators was the view that the government had
been dishonest in articulating its justification for war:
Two harsh words are used again and again. One is “liars” and the other is
“smug”. One can try to defend the Blair administration against the charge of
lying, but it is much like defending the Major Government against the charge of
sleaze. It was the 45-minte weapons of mass destruction that did it. Part of
folklore of public memory is that Tony Blair took Britain to war on a lie. 171
* Turnout was 40%
† By this time already a year after the ‘end of major combat operations’ (see p101)
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