CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY DAREN BOWYER JUST WAR DOCTRINE

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political leadership. Unsurprisingly, however, their readiness to accept casualties was based on their perception of national interest. Given three possible conflict scenarios – actions to prevent Iraqi development of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), defence of Taiwan against Chinese invasion, and stabilisation of a democratic regime in Congo – interviewees in each class were asked how many casualties they would find acceptable. Table 2-6 shows the results, and may suggest why WMD featured so highly in the justification presented to the American public for the 2003 Iraq War: Mission Average of acceptable casualty figured given by interviewees of each group: Military Leadership Political Leadership Public Stabilisation of Congo 284 484 6861 Prevention of Iraqi WMD 6016 19,045 29,853 Defence of Taiwan 17,425 17,554 20,172 Table 2-6 Number of Casualties Deemed Acceptable. In the 1982 Falkland Islands conflict and again in the 1991 Gulf War, the British public and media, while saddened by casualties (which were relatively light) were broadly accepting of them. In the 2003 Iraq War, which did not enjoy the same extensive public support as necessary and right, casualties were less readily accepted. Acceptance of casualties reduced dramatically as more evidence emerged to suggest that the WMD intelligence, on which, in the UK especially, the war had been justified, was deeply flawed. In September 2004 the US Iraq Survey Group (ISG) report was published, concluding that: ‘Saddam Hasayn (sic) ended the nuclear program in 1991 following the Gulf War. ISG found no evidence to suggest concerted efforts to restart the program’ 216 and ‘…ISG judges that Iraq unilaterally destroyed its undeclared chemical weapons stockpile in 1991. There are no credible indications that Baghdad resumed production of chemical munitions thereafter…’ 217 The following day’s headline in The Daily Express was ‘They Died for a Lie’. 218 Even before that, The Daily Mail 219 had published a picture of Tony Blair’s face created out of a montage of pictures of all those UK soldiers who had been killed on operations 133
during his premiership * . The issue re-emerged during the 2005 UK General Election. The Conservative Party used a poster showing Tony Blair’s face with the slogan ‘If he's prepared to lie to take us to war he's prepared to lie to win an election.’ The father of a soldier killed in the war stood as an independent candidate against Mr Blair in his constituency. Reg Keys, standing as an independent, took 10.3% of the vote, finishing third just behind the Liberal Democrats. Whilst never a significant threat to Mr Blair’s re-election as MP for Sedgfield, Mr Keys’ campaign – and a subsequent BBC documentary that followed it in detail – must be counted a serious personal embarrassment to the Prime Minister. Moreover, it is unprecedented as an expression of personal blame for the death of UK servicemen on duty. What made casualties unacceptable – to many – in 2003, was that the justification for the conflict was not sufficiently accepted. Justification of conflict – and justifiable conduct within it – has an important effect at the national/domestic-political level. In Western democracies any government committing its military to conflict without clear – and well-articulated – justification risks its electoral support. Not just the electorate’s support is at risk, but also support within the ruling party; it is the leadership’s personal standing that will be undermined. The ill-articulated justification for the 2003 Iraq war did serious damage to Tony Blair’s authority both as Prime Minister and as Labour Party leader but also the issue saw the personal integrity of the Prime Minister challenged in a way not seen in modern British politics. Beyond the standing of a particular government there is also the risk of damage to the institutions of public life; confidence in them can be undermined. This includes both the institutions of democratic rule and also the armed forces. In the latter case, particular harm is done by association with perceived unjust conduct – however isolated the instances may be. The armed forces may further be damaged by a negative impact on both recruiting and retention; and this effect may be particularly sharply felt by the reserve component. Finally, at the national level, acceptance of casualties is sharply reduced by a lack of sympathy with the causus belli. * Aping a similar treatment of President Bush by a US artist. 134
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CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY DAREN BOWYER J
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ABSTRACT For nearly two millennia j
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CONTENTS Abstract ……………
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GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS Acronym Meanin
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which such political decisions are
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worst of all, continuall feare, and
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fact it does positive harm.’ 15 T
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whole with the interests of the fit
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war should be entered into without
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matter for realist determination, t
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and has returned to the fore of pol
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This is the context against which K
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equired to make war, and the people
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a clear perception of the new world
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which Keohane 59 defines as ‘pers
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underpinnings. As well as making th
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states) and could be predicted thro
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Hobbesianism/ Machiavellianism (Wig
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It recognises both that war and a s
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European Convention on Human Rights
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the other side of liberalism, possi
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the principal foci of this thesis.
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The clearest evidence for the stabi
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if we take Willard’s analogy, it
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promotion of common goals, there ca
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But shortly afterwards he continues
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premise by which Augustine came to
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understood only to apply between Ch
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Writing against the backdrop of a s
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have ‘plausible pretext.’ His w
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As Gross’s title suggests, this o
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organisations/arrangements acting u
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the realist must be persuaded that
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eserving to a supra-national body t
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70 K Waltz, Man, The State and War.
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153 Emerrich De Vattel, The Law of
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must again be found from first prin
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philosophically the ultimate expres
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Notwithstanding the significant ste
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nationalist regime. Had the Soviet
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The operation and extent of the vet
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59 over membership issues 38 . The
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(Of course, history was to show he
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Four years later, in early 2003, it
Page 91 and 92: 2.2.3 Practical Failings Other fail
Page 93 and 94: nearly all important points. Not al
Page 95 and 96: equipped and trained forces were re
Page 97 and 98: Charter and apparently outwith its
Page 99 and 100: Navigation with Nicaragua. The Unit
Page 101 and 102: each Member undertakes to comply wi
Page 103 and 104: There is a second, related, point t
Page 105 and 106: 2.2.4 Reordering the Value Set: New
Page 107 and 108: There was a growing recognition, th
Page 109 and 110: … … The global threat to our se
Page 111 and 112: levels of analysis will be used: th
Page 113 and 114: The dangers of unilateralism were a
Page 115 and 116: Still, there is no denying that the
Page 117 and 118: operation around Fallujah, a politi
Page 119 and 120: Figure 2-1: Hooded Iraqi Prisoner a
Page 121 and 122: international resolve; in 2003, sig
Page 123 and 124: into the First World War to “make
Page 125 and 126: As a side-issue, but closely relate
Page 127 and 128: … I suppose American power is mor
Page 129 and 130: Scholars have identified a number o
Page 131 and 132: The poor poll showing increased con
Page 133 and 134: 167. 181 In the concurrent County a
Page 135 and 136: lack of clear justification for the
Page 137 and 138: Thinking of the position of individ
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Page 141: The final issue to be considered fr
Page 145 and 146: war of defence and liberation, has
Page 147 and 148: Second World War with the predomina
Page 149 and 150: …the cooking of news before it wa
Page 151 and 152: In the case of US soldiers in Iraq,
Page 153 and 154: terms: ‘the ability to get people
Page 155 and 156: on the team who simply love the gam
Page 157 and 158: In common with many colleagues the
Page 159 and 160: Solomou, a medic with The London Ir
Page 161 and 162: - are accepted. In the case of rese
Page 163 and 164: 57 Ibid, Article 47. 58 E Luard, op
Page 165 and 166: 113 David D Newsome, ‘The Bush Pr
Page 167 and 168: 162 G. John Ikenberry, ‘Why Expor
Page 169 and 170: 212 C Dunlap, Organizational Change
Page 171 and 172: 162
Page 173 and 174: problems of mobilization and inflex
Page 175 and 176: even driven, much more by the polit
Page 177 and 178: whose average weight has continuall
Page 179 and 180: One consequence of the blurring of
Page 181 and 182: minority and all parties have to be
Page 183 and 184: much wider than traditional defence
Page 185 and 186: 3.3 Humanitarian Intervention 3.3.1
Page 187 and 188: Chapter 2 (see Section CHAPTER 22.2
Page 189 and 190: Further evidence of a shift of cons
Page 191 and 192: The inability of a strictly legal p
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and optimism that followed successf
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The non-cooperation of the Khmer Ro
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As with the operation in Cambodia,
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The community of nations decided to
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humane values. The problem, of cour
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the secessionist aims of a sustaina
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(T)here assuredly are cases in whic
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upholding the law is a good thing a
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debacle. Weinberger-Powell is, esse
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‘Democracy’ says de Wijk ‘is
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(m)ost internal political or civil
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Of course, this conceptualization o
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HRW concluded that ‘the killing i
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action. 143 For just one example of
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political will is robustness in Rul
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motivated, to lack cultural empathy
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(which is essentially non-intervent
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armed force when necessary, to prev
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‘intractable injustice’? Yes ar
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immediate objective is the destruct
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Geoff Hoon argued that ‘… there
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action before any blow is actually
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international opinio juris recognis
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unproven case that preventive actio
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In the past decade, Saddam has syst
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‘Osirak’ end of the scale) risk
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The UN formally considered the case
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This chapter’s discussion of inte
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as with interventions, they will al
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60 Independent International Commis
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137 K Roth, ‘War in Iraq not a Hu
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http://www.publications.parliament.
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warfare. AP I deals with ‘victims
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Münkler 8 suggests that the Democr
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Experience in Kosovo, Iraq and Afgh
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The issue might, then, be seen as o
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eplacements, even in the United Sta
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intervene and was certainly, in par
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willing to provide equipment suppor
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applying selectivity to interventio
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it’s a political decision in Wash
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unconvinced. Danielle Pletka, of th
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too thinly spread and in living con
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watching as lightly armed drunken t
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had been over Bosnia not so much to
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….. strategies calling for use of
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technology to achieve the long-soug
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This might be seen as the fulfilmen
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the rules of war, beginning with th
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Army, 99 with its accompanying Comm
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Values form the very identity of th
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three are intertwined and inter-rel
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of Independence, the Napoleonic Fre
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in Iraq throughout 2004-2005. Somet
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In July 2005 six former UK Chiefs o
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Nor does the expectation of being h
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never succeeds is, unfortunately, a
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soldiers.’ 135 Although Gray goes
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had been done: soldiers were reluct
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4.4.1 PMCs A characteristic of cont
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Furthermore, the use of contract st
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We are left, then, with the inevita
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college at Chapultepec, for example
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of double effect is of dubious valu
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instrument of compassion is also re
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7 Ibid, p93. 8 Herfried Münkler (T
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69 UNSCR 837 (1993). Online at http
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137 Maj Gen A Stewart, Policy and t
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enter voluntarily. Until such a con
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If the application of the UN Charte
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5.6 Conclusion 6: Just War Offers a
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5.9 Conclusion 9: on ‘asymmetric
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328
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Higgins, Rosemary Hollis, Martin an
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Paperback edition 1994) de Wijk, Ro
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CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY DAREN BOWYER JUST WAR DOCTRINE

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