Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS

74
Urban crime and violence
High homicide and
violent crime rates
are also associated
with increased
healthcare costs and
social services costs
High rates of
robbery … serve as
a deterrent to
investment, thereby
leading to greater
levels of poverty and
deprivation
Haiti, Jamaica and Mexico have been hard hit, as a large
proportion of educated individuals migrate to North America
and the UK. 201 Similarly, increasing levels of crime and
violence played a key role in the emigration of many South
African professionals to countries such as Australia, New
Zealand, the UK and Canada during the 1990s.
■ Impacts of contact crimes on economic and
health systems
At national levels, high crime rates are identified as major
impediments to foreign investment, and also affect capital
flight and the reluctance of people to invest in their own
countries. Recent research in Africa showed that more than
29 per cent of business people surveyed report that crime
was a significant investment constraint. 202 Investors generally
worry about violent crime and corruption since they
fear direct losses to enterprises, and about the safety of
their expatriate employees. They are also concerned about
the impacts of corruption on business investment. 203
Findings from Latin America show that the financial burden
of violence is equivalent to 25 per cent of the GDP in
Colombia and El Salvador; 12 per cent in Mexico and
Venezuela; 11 per cent in Brazil; and 5 per cent of the GDP
in Peru. 204 Other research in Latin America concludes that
crime has substantially reduced the performance of enterprises
and has had a particularly serious impact on sales
growth. 205
High homicide and violent crime rates are also associated
with increased healthcare costs and social services
costs. For example, the collapse of the Brazilian public hospital
system in the 1980s and 1990s has been attributed to the
weight of the high number of homicides and criminal
injuries. The ‘combination of mental health, social work,
physical rehabilitation and surgeries’ overwhelmed the
system’s resources. 206 High homicide and violent crime also
affect the provision of police services. These incidents are
generally expensive and time-consuming crimes for police to
investigate, and add further stress to many overburdened
and under-resourced national criminal justice systems.
■ Impacts of property crime on buildings and
property values
The impacts of crime on urban society are also manifested in
damage to buildings and infrastructure. Together, these costs
represent a significant, albeit incalculable, economic loss
worldwide. To understand the full cost of property damage
requires knowledge of the total number of crimes actually
committed. This is not possible. Consequently, indirect
methods that use survey data, multipliers to adjust differences
between police data and survey results, and data
extrapolation are commonly employed to provide estimates
of the extent of the problem.
Research on the economic impacts of crime on
property values in London found that criminal damage
(graffiti, vandalism and arson) had a negative effect on
property prices. 207 Using UK-based multipliers, Australian
estimates of the costs of burglaries drawing on police data
and surveys suggest an average property loss and damage of
AU$1100 for residential burglaries and AU$2400 for nonresidential
incidents, for total losses estimated at AU$1.3
billion, of which AU$0.9 billion was identified for residential
burglaries alone. 208 Including lost output (but not medical
costs), the total costs of burglaries for the country were
estimated at AU$2.43 billion. Cost for other property
crimes, such as criminal damage (vandalism) and arson total
almost AU$2.7 billion, including lost output, intangible costs
and the costs of fire protection and ambulance services. One
point that is clear from the existing evidence is that the true
costs of property crime damage are complex insomuch as
they involve many associated costs, such as work output,
municipal services, decreased property values and quality of
life, which are all challenging to quantify.
Local impacts of crime and violence
While crime and violence have global, regional and national
impacts, the impacts are very much manifested and felt at
the city and neighbourhood levels. The impact of crime and
violence at such local levels relates to the ‘defensible space’
and provides insights into how cities and neighbourhoods
can be better designed to reduce the factors that contribute
to crime and violence.
■ Impacts of crime on urban flight
In terms of the impacts on cities, there is convincing
evidence that rising crime rates, especially violent crime,
influence population and commercial flight from central city
locations, with more affluent households and those with
children more likely to leave. 209 Also known as ‘human
capital flight’, the educated and employed middle classes
flee sections of the city with high crime rates. This perpetuates
an environment in which the proportion of law-abiding
citizens is diminished compared to those individuals
regularly engaged in criminal activity. Similarly, many
businesses have left central city locations because of crime.
Although substantial, the costs of such losses have rarely
been quantified. On the opposite side of the equation, there
is evidence that reduced crime rates are significantly associated
with rising property values in some cities, an important
economic variable bearing on investment decisions and the
creation of societal wealth. 210
■ Impacts of robbery
As suggested above, the flight of the middle class from
sections of the city affected by crime leaves impoverished
populations often concentrated in such areas. The effects
are cumulative since crimes, such as robbery and armed
robbery, are associated with the number of motivated
offenders in any one area. Furthermore, high rates of
robbery contribute to a downward spiral of low property
values and serve as a deterrent to investment, thereby
leading to greater levels of poverty and deprivation. The
result is that poor neighbourhoods are the hardest hit by a
range of crimes. In this context, a connection between lesser
property crimes, such as theft, and more serious crimes,
such as armed robbery in poor neighbourhoods, has been
proposed in the following sequence: