Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS

28
Understanding Urban Safety and Security
Figure 2.1
<strong>Global</strong> warming and
meteorological
disasters
Source: United Nations
International Strategy for
Disaster Reduction, Disaster
Statistics,
www.unisdr.org/disaster-statistics-occurence.pdf
Number of disasters in the world
200
150
100
50
Flood
Wind storm
Drought and
related disasters
Slides
0
1970
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
The declining
effectiveness of
government and
public authority is
a potentially
devastating result of
global environmental
trends
Table 2.2
Distribution of world
population as a
function of distance
from the nearest
coastline
Source: Gommes et al, 1998
Kilimanjaro’s ice cloak is soon to disappear, the
summertime Arctic Ocean could be ice free by
century’s end, 11,000-year-old shelves around
Antarctica are breaking up over the course of
weeks, and glaciers there and in Greenland
have begun galloping into the sea. And the
receding glaciers, at least, are surely driving up
sea level and pushing shorelines inland… Rising
seas would push half a billion people inland. 19
This frightening prospect makes flooding in Mumbai or New
Orleans appear quite limited in impact and significance. A
large share of the world’s total stock of wealth, including
fixed public assets such as infrastructure, private investments
in production capacity and cultivation, not to speak of
the heritage of cities themselves as the crucibles of civilization,
are located in coastal areas (see Figure 2.2). The issue
of sea-level rise therefore deserves special attention. Recent
estimates show dramatic economic losses in countries as
diverse as Japan, Egypt and Poland, all in different ecological
zones and climates, but all facing potential impacts on
millions of people and losses in the many billions of US
dollars. 20
In this context, these global environmental forces
completely change the meaning of urban safety and security.
Table 2.2 presents some of this data. One can wonder when
‘the rich’ will begin to buy ‘safe’ inland locations and how
such changes in investment will affect normal patterns of
urban life. Such change does not occur overnight; but one
Distance from Population Accumulated Accumulated
the coast (km) (million) population (million) percentage
Up to 30km 1147 1147 20.6
>30 to 60km 480 1627 29.2
>60 to 90km 327 1954 35
>90 to 120km 251 2205 39.5
Beyond 120km 3362 5567 100
can imagine that a few major events could easily spark behaviour
changes on a worldwide level. Speculation about the
impacts of such changes is beyond the scope of this <strong>Global</strong>
<strong>Report</strong>; but it deserves attention from researchers.
■ <strong>Global</strong> uncertainty and weakening of
national institutions
A third type of global factor is the increased uncertainty
arising from the interaction of global forces and the consequent
weakening of national and local institutions to manage
risks and reduce vulnerabilities. Uncertainty reduces the
capacity to plan and to prepare for change. When the probability
of events does not depend upon the actions of the
party likely to be affected, or in this case national or local
governments, it weakens the status and authority of government
when it seeks to manage risks and reduce
vulnerabilities. The public at large can ask why they should
accept the advice of government if the latter does not have
either better information about a probable event or any
means to mitigate its impact. In fact, anticipation is the first
step towards mitigation and, therefore, anticipation does
reduce risks and vulnerabilities by removing the role of
surprise and allowing the possibility of some degree of
preparedness.
The declining effectiveness of government and public
authority is a potentially devastating result of global environmental
trends. The constructive responses and solidarity
among victims of flooding in Mumbai in July 2005 may be
interpreted as socially and culturally responsible behaviour
in the absence of effective action by the Maharashtra State
Government and the Municipal Corporation of Mumbai. The
opposite seems to have occurred in New Orleans as federal,
state and local authorities were unable to protect the New
Orleans population, and particularly the poorest people
among them, following Hurricane Katrina in 2005. 21 In both
cities, a legacy of the disaster is growing scepticism about
the capacity of public institutions to solve problems. This can
easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy as public officials