Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS

Disaster risk: Conditions, trends and impacts
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Box 7.9 Disaster risk in a small city: Shimla, India
Shimla is a small settlement in India, with a population of 140,000.
The city is located in the north Indian Himalayas in an area of high
seismic activity. On 4 April 1905, an earthquake of 7.8 on the
Richter scale damaged much of the city. While the city was
designed for 25,000 occupants, it now houses up to 140,000 as
permanent residents and another 100,000 transitory population.
Urban development has proceeded apace and without due regard
for hazard management. Risk has accumulated as the city has
developed.
Capacity for urban planning has not been able to keep pace
with development, although recent initiatives have built disaster
management capacity. The non-governmental organization (NGO)
Sustainable Environment and Ecological Development Society has
worked with the municipal corporation of Shimla to build
resilience. An earthquake risk assessment has been conducted that
has flagged several urban processes as contributing to risk:
• Rapid unplanned growth has occurred so that residential
districts – but also critical infrastructure (e.g. hospitals, power
stations, telecommunication installations and water supply
stations) are located in hazard zones.
• Most buildings are residential (over 75 per cent) and the city is
high density. Both of these factors limit the amount of spare
capacity space that could be used for public shelter in the
event of a large disaster.
Source: Gupta et al, 2006
• Many of the buildings are not accessible from roads (72 per
cent) and many are on steep hill slopes, making evacuation and
relief difficult.
• Emergency services are under-funded. Only 100 fire fighters
with six fire engines serve the city and its surrounding region.
• The building stock is predominantly of a poor condition.
Existing building stock is poorly maintained, particularly in the
rental sector, coupled with a preference for building with
unsafe material, such as brick or concrete with minimal
reinforcement. Some 36 per cent of the city’s building stock
has been classified by the Sustainable Environment and
Ecological Development Society as being of very poor quality.
• Many buildings are inappropriately high for an earthquake
region. At least 24 per cent of buildings have three or more
stories, 40 per cent of which are built on steep slopes on top
of un-compacted soil.
• Around 15 per cent of Shimla’s building stock was constructed
before 1925 and is built of wood. This is a concern for half of
these structures, which have not been properly maintained,
leading to decay. In the old districts of the town, the high
density of building means that adjoining buildings are put at
risk.
• Seismic building codes were introduced in 1971. About 30 per
cent of the buildings were constructed before this ordinance
was passed; but a lack of regulation enforcement means that
some 80 per cent of buildings do not meet standards.
Environmental change and poverty in cities
The economic imperatives that drive urbanization also play a
large role in determining the status of the urban environment
and ecosystems, as well as the extent and depth of
poverty, wealth and inequality in the city. This sub-section
reviews the ways in which urbanization processes generate
risk by shaping the environment of the city and the growth
of slums. The role of global environmental change on disaster
risk in cities is also considered.
■ Modifying the hazard environment
Consumption of natural assets (trees for fuel, groundwater,
sand and gravel) and the overexploitation of natural services
(water systems and air as sinks for sewerage or industrial
waste) modify the environment and generate new hazards.
These include deforestation and slope instability within and
surrounding cities, encouraging landslides and flash flooding.
Such changes to the urban environment do not impact
upon citizens equally.
Recent evidence illustrates that with increasing affluence
and through the use of technology, those who produce
waste and risk can avoid the consequences both in time and
space. Thus, the environmental costs of over-consumption
by the wealthy become burdens for the poor, who are forced
to live not only in unsafe and insecure housing, but also with
urban pollution and environmental degradation. 62 Climate
change is the most extreme example of this thesis. High
consumption by the rich and in aggregate by richer cities has
contributed 80 per cent of carbon emissions that cause
climate change. Yet, it is the less wealthy and the poor in
cities, towns and villages who will least be able to cope with
and adapt to the local impacts of climate change, either
directly or collectively through government or social
actions. 63
Flooding, perhaps more than any other hazard type,
has been exacerbated by the physical processes of urbanization.
Flood risk has been made worse in urban areas through
the silting of natural water courses and the lowering of water
tables, followed by salt intrusion or land subsidence.
Building roads and houses makes it harder for rainwater to
drain through the soil, leading to more frequent flash flooding
in cities. The loss of mangrove ecosystems on urban
fringes leads to coastal erosion and exposure to storm wind
and waves. Similarly, deforestation on hill slopes within and
surrounding settled land can create instability and lead to
greater landslide hazard. Many losses to Hurricane Mitch,
during 1998, in Central America were in small regional
towns smothered by mudslides or flash floods caused by
deforestation in adjacent agricultural areas. 64 Increased
losses to flooding can also be expected as the number and
size of urban settlements in coastal areas increases. 65
The urban landscape itself is changing the context of
natural and human-made disasters. Inadequately built multistorey
construction has been a cause of losses in many urban
disasters, and skyscrapers have also been the site for devas-
Inadequately built
multi-storey
construction has
been a cause of
losses in many
urban disasters…