Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS

Urban crime and violence: Conditions and trends
55
the same period. EU city averages are significantly higher
(2.28 per 100,000) compared to the matching country
homicide rate average (1.59 per 100,000). High murder
rates (near or above 5 per 100,000 individuals) are apparent
for cities in countries undergoing civil strife, such as Belfast
(Northern Ireland) and in cities that are in the midst of
transitions between political and economic systems, such as
Tallinn (Estonia), Vilnius (Lithuania) and Moscow (Russia).
The highest reported murder rate is in Washington, DC,
which equals or exceeds rates in developing nations. This
city has a number of converging risk factors, including significant
social and economic inequality, a high proportion of
impoverished citizens and widespread availability of guns.
While crime rates vary significantly within regions and
countries, over a recent five-year period, it has been
estimated that 60 per cent of all urban dwellers in developing
countries have been crime victims, with rates of 70 per
cent in parts of Latin America and Africa. 32 Crime and
violence are typically more severe in urban areas and are
compounded by their rapid growth, especially in developing
and transitional nations. In Latin America, where 80 per cent
of the population is urban, the rapidly expanding metropolitan
areas of Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Mexico City, Lima and
Caracas are responsible for over half of the homicides
reported in their respective countries. 33 The homicide rate
in Rio de Janeiro has tripled since the 1970s, while the rate
in São Paulo has quadrupled. In the Caribbean, Kingston,
Jamaica’s capital, consistently accounts for the vast majority
of the nation’s murders. 34
At the global level, discerning violent crime trends is
complicated by the significant variability across regions (as
seen above), within nations and between areas within cities.
For example, as is evident in Figure 3.6, violent crime rates
for some American cities, such as Washington, DC, and San
Francisco, are widely divergent and Washington’s homicide
rate is more comparable to that of Rio de Janeiro’s, which
was about 45 per 100,000 in 2001. Tokyo’s and Rome’s
rates are about the same, although they are cultures and
continents apart. 35
Within cities, homicide rates vary significantly. In São
Paulo, crude homicide rates in 2001 ranged from 1.2 per
100,000 in the Jardim Paulista district to 115.8 per 100,000
individuals in the Guaianazes district. 36 The reasons for such
variations are subject to much debate, with rationales
variously attributed to differences in local drug markets,
policing strategies and contextual community cultural and
social values.
More recently, violent crimes, such as homicides and
assaults, have been increasing in the US, particularly in
medium-sized cities of between 500,000 and 1 million
people. 37 Despite this recent upsurge in violent crime, overall
crime rates in North American cities had been generally
declining. Large and rapidly growing cities in Asia and the
Middle East, which are constrained by a variety of formal and
informal forces, consistently report significantly lower crime
rates than urban places elsewhere. These variable trends,
admittedly based on imperfect statistics, suggest that while
crime and violence may be predictable phenomena in cities
and regions, they are not necessarily their unalterable fates.
Rate per 100,000 population
25
20
15
10
5
0
Africa
The Americas
Fear of crime and violence
Southeast
Asia
Europe
Cultures of fear of crime and violence are widespread, both
in the developed and developing world. Public opinion
surveys in the US and the UK repeatedly show that people
rank crime among the top concerns that they have in everyday
life. It should be noted that fear of crime is different
from the perception of crime, which is the recognition and
knowledge that crime occurs.
These concerns are also found in developing
countries, as evidenced in Nairobi (Kenya), where survey
Washington, DC, US
Moscow, Russia
Tallinn, Estonia
Vilnius, Lithuania
New York, NY, US
San Francisco, CA, US
Belfast, N. Ireland
Prague, Czech Rep.
Warsaw, Poland
Bratislava, Slovakia
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Stockholm, Sweden
Vienna, Austria
Brussels, Belgium
Ankara, Turkey
London, UK
Wellington, New Zealand
EU capital cities’ average
Budapest, Hungary
Paris, France
Helsinki, Finland
Berlin, Germany
Madrid, Spain
Oslo, Norway
Dublin, Ireland
Copenhagen, Denmark
Geneva, Switzerland
Sydney, Australia
Lisbon, Portugal
Edinburgh, Scotland
Ljubljana, Slovenia
Tokyo, Japan
Rome, Italy
Berne, Switzerland
Ottawa, Canada
Athens and Piraeus, Greece
Canberra, Australia
Lefkosla, Cyprus
Homicide
Eastern
Mediterranean
Suicide
Western
Pacific
Figure 3.5
Homicide and suicide
rates by World Health
Organization region
(2000)
Source: Krug et al, 2002, p11
Figure 3.6
Recorded homicides in
selected cities
Source: adapted from Barclay et
al, 2003
0 10 20 30 40 50
Average per year from 1999–2001 (per 100,000 individuals)