Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS

Disaster risk: Conditions, trends and impacts
193
because of overstretching the ecological basis of their
economies, leading to political conflict and terminal decline.
Future new risks might include those associated with global
environmental change and also with the increasing connectivity
of urban centres worldwide that enables the
transmission of economic impacts through transport and
finance networks.
<strong>Global</strong> hazard maps can be used to indicate the distribution
of risk. Richer countries are most at risk from
absolute economic loss, whereas poorer countries suffer
more human loss, as well as economic loss, as a proportion
of GDP. Human-made risk and recorded loss is greatest in
low-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The
largest concentrations of urban populations, in megacities,
represent focal points for urban risk, especially those cities
exposed to multiple hazards and with limited capacity for
risk management.
Disaster impacts are seldom fully measured. This is a
particular problem for cities since they house much of the
accumulated cultural heritage of the world. Direct economic
loss from damage and human impacts can be accounted for;
but longer-term impacts on economies, or individual loss and
psychological trauma, are much more difficult to measure.
Disaster losses are often compounded when one event
triggers a secondary event, or when recovery and reconstruction
activities lead to ecological damage and social
disruption. The social and political impacts of disasters are
especially sensitive to reconstruction, with this being an
opportunity for improvements in governance, as well as in
basic needs.
This chapter identified the following aspects of urbanization
that shape disaster risk:
1 Large cities and megacities concentrate and magnify
risk.
2 Smaller cities (less than 500,000 residents) that are
home to just over half of the world’s urban population
also experience exposure to multiple risks, but are
likely to have limited formal capacity and organized civil
society with which to build resilience.
3 Ongoing demographic and social changes in cities are a
challenge since social groups at risk may alter, requiring
flexibility in disaster management. Nevertheless, the
economically poor, politically marginalized and socially
isolated (often women) are consistently the most
vulnerable.
4 Urbanization processes modify the hazard profile of the
city directly – for example, through the urbanization of
hill slopes and floodplains – but also indirectly as the
impacts of climate change hit cities (the sites for a large
proportion of greenhouse gas emissions).
5 Building standards are in place in almost all cities, but
they are seldom implemented. This, more than any
other policy challenge, highlights the need for social
policy to connect with technical and engineering
solutions to risk management.
6 The increasing numbers of urban residents forced to
live in slums and squatter settlements is an indication of
the depth of failure of urban governance to provide
even the most basic needs and to protect the political,
social, economic and cultural rights of all. Slums and
squatter settlements are places of great hazard, but also
of great potential. Governance structures that can
partner with this local energy can reduce risk.
7 Urban planning is seriously under capacity in most
cities. It is almost impossible for many planning departments
to keep pace with rapid urbanization. New
techniques in urban planning are needed that can
extend formal practices into the informal housing
sector. Meeting the MDGs is dependent upon this.
Taking urban disaster risk management seriously requires an
integrated approach. For this reason, it is of concern that
very few national Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers include
risk management. Although it is not unusual for urban plans
to integrate hazard mitigation, the next step is to match this
with a commitment for vulnerability reduction that includes
relevant social and economic policy.
Comparing urban risk at the regional scale re-emphasizes
the centrality of urban governance as a driver for urban
risk profiles. In those cities where strong government and
civil society sectors take risk reduction seriously, great gains
can be made.
NOTES
1 One exception is the
Australian government,
which defines a small disaster
as one where state
expenditure (on all assistance
measures) does not
exceed AU$240,000
(US$185,500), roughly
equivalent to the cost of
repairing 20 houses.
2 Kasperson et al, 1996.
3 Blaikie et al, 1994.
4 Data is drawn from the EM-
DAT, CRED database. Only
events that exceed a
minimum threshold of 10
deaths, 100 people affected
or a call for international
assistance or declaration of
a state of emergency are
included. Consequently,
many small disasters will
have been excluded. This is
likely to have affected data
on transport and is also
reflected in the absence of a
category for house fires.
5 This is a term used in EM-
DAT, CRED to describe
accidents involving mechanized
modes of transport. It
comprises of four disaster
subsets involving air, boat,
rail and road accidents.
6 The current millennium has
been dubbed the ‘urban
millennium’ given that, in
2007, for the first time in
history, the world’s urban
population will equal the
rural population (UN-
Habitat, 2006e).
7 Kreimer et al, 2003.
8 IFRC, 2003.
9 Ibid.
10 A global geography of
natural disaster risk based
on exposed populations and
past losses (1980 to 2001)
illustrates that both
predominantly rural and
urban regions are at risk
worldwide. Loss to hydrological
hazard (floods,
landslides and hurricanes) is
most widespread, affecting
human settlements in China,
Southeast Asia and Central
America, and in a band from
Eastern Europe through
Central and Eastern Asia.
Loss to geological hazard
(earthquakes and volcano
eruptions) is most concentrated
in Central Asia and
the Mediterranean and
Pacific Rim states (e.g. Japan,
the US and Central
America). The Americas
show variable loss, with low
levels of loss in North
America. Central Asia is
exposed to losses from the
greatest number of hazard
types. Likewise, the Black
Sea region, Central America
and Japan face multiple
hazards. Data from Dilley et
al, 2005; maps also adapted
from this source.
11 Ibid.
12 Ibid.
13 EM-DAT, CRED, University
of Louvain, Belgium,