Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS

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178 Natural and human-made disasters Natural hazard Primary hazard Secondary hazard Cyclone Strong winds, heavy seas Flood and sea surge, landslide, water pollution, chemical release Flood Flooding Water pollution, landslide, erosion, chemical release Tsunami Flooding Water pollution, landslide, erosion, deposition, chemical release Earthquake Ground motion, fault rupture Soil liquefaction, fire, flood, landslide, tsunami, water pollution, explosion, chemical release Landslide Ground failure Flooding following river damming, water pollution, debris flow Volcano Lava flow, pyroclastic flow, ash fall, Fire, air pollution, tsunami, water pollution, ground gas release subsidence, explosion, chemical release Table 7.6 Primary and secondary hazards Source: Institute of Civil Engineers, 1999 The potential for feedback between natural and humanmade hazards in large cities presents the scenario for a disaster on an unprecedented scale Powerful players can move indirect economic losses around the urban economy diversity can lead to initial ‘primary’ natural hazards triggering ‘secondary’ hazards (see Table 7.6). In many cases, secondary hazards can be as devastating as the primary hazard (or even more). Warnings of this potential include Kobe (Japan) in 1995 and San Francisco (US) in 1906, where earthquakes were followed by urban fires. Human-made hazards triggered by the impacts of natural disasters are called Natech events. There is little systematically held data on the vulnerability of industrial facilities to natural hazards since assessments are undertaken privately and often considered too sensitive for public access. There is also little recording of Natech incidents, and even less data on near misses. Again, this information is often held privately and is not easily accessible for analysis. The seriousness of the threat posed by Natech events in urban contexts can be seen by the following list of events triggered by the 1999 Marmara earthquake in Turkey: 23 • leakage of 6.5 million kilograms of toxic acrylonitrile – as a result, contaminating air, soil, water and threatening residential areas; • the intentional air release of 200,000 kilograms of ammonia gas to avoid explosion; • the release of 1.2 million kilograms of cryogenic liquid oxygen caused by a structural failure; • three large fires in Turkey’s largest oil refinery, consuming more than 180,000 cubic metres of fuel; • a release of liquefied petroleum gas, killing two truck drivers. Human-made hazards can also lead to unexpected secondary hazards, potentially turning minor incidents into major events. On 10 August 1983, a 30 centimetre diameter water main ruptured in New York’s Garment District. Water flooded an underground electricity sub-station, causing a fire. The fire was too intense for fire fighters to approach it directly. The blaze ignited the roof of a 25-storey building and took 16 hours to extinguish. Power was not restored for five days. The resulting blackouts hit 1.9 square kilometres of the Garment District, disrupting telephones and an international market week being hosted in the Garment District at the time. The cascading events started by this minor incident caused disruption and loss in increasingly complex systems. Estimated losses were in the tens of millions of dollars. 24 The potential for feedback between natural and human-made hazards in large cities presents the scenario for a disaster on an unprecedented scale. The economic impacts of such a disaster in a city of regional or global importance could resonate around the world’s financial system, with catastrophic consequences worldwide. Ecological damage and the impacts of recovery Urban disaster impacts can be significantly compounded by environmental damage, resulting in the loss of ecosystem stability. Perhaps most important is the potential for disaster to result in the pollution of groundwater. Salt water intrusion following storm surges, tsunami and coastal flooding, or the pollution of groundwater from sewerage, petrol and hazardous chemicals, can render aquifers unsafe for prolonged periods. This was the case in Banda Aceh following the Indian Ocean Tsunami. 25 Disaster impact assessments seldom include damages caused in the process of disaster response and recovery. This is a serious omission. A recent evaluation has suggested that the ecological costs of cleanup and reconstruction following the Indian Ocean Tsunami will compete with or even exceed environmental losses caused by the wave. 26 In the wake of typhoon Tokage, which hit Japan from 19 to 21 September 2004, 44,780 tonnes of waste were produced by the city of Toyooka, composed mainly of forest debris and household goods. Waste treatment took over four months, at an estimated cost of US$20 million – a significant financial burden on the budget of a small city. 27 The use of debris as recycled material in reconstruction is commonplace in local reconstruction efforts, but rare in large contracted reconstruction work. An account of the Great Hanshin earthquake that hit Kobe City in 1995 concludes that the volume of dioxins released into the atmosphere through the incineration of 2 million tonnes of waste equalled the amount generated by the 1976 industrial disaster in Seveso (Italy), effectively causing a human-made disaster. Other environmental impacts included the scattering of asbestos and concrete particles during demolitions, improper lining of landfills used for hazardous waste, use of tetrachloroethylene, which caused pollution of soil and groundwater, and a missed opportunity to recycle waste. 28 Economic effects of disasters The following discussion focuses on the economic effects of disasters. The economic sectors exposed to individual disaster types and the role of land markets are discussed in turn. ■ Economic production and infrastructure The economic costs of natural and human-made disasters over the past few decades have been phenomenal. Economic losses from natural disasters, for instance, have increased 15- fold since the 1950s. 29 In a matter of two decades between 1974 and 2003, economic damages worth US$1.38 trillion were caused worldwide by natural disasters. In 2006, economic losses from natural disasters amounted to US$48 billion, while human-made disasters triggered economic
Disaster risk: Conditions, trends and impacts 179 Impact Hazard type Flood Wind Wave/tsunami Earthquake Volcano Fire Drought Human made Direct: loss of housing ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ Direct: damage to infrastructure ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ Systemic: short-term migration ✗ ✗ ✗ Systemic: loss of business production ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ Systemic: loss of industrial production ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ Systemic: disruption of transport ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ Systemic: disruption of communication ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ Table 7.7 Economic impacts of disasters by hazard type Source: adapted from UNDRCO, 1991 losses worth US$5 billion. 30 Economic losses are regionally differentiated, with the Americas and Asia incurring highest losses from natural disasters 31 and Europe experiencing greatest loss from human-made disasters. Various hazards have differentiated effects on urban economic systems (see Table 7.7). The scale of economic impact varies according to the spread, intensity and form of the energy released by each hazard type. For example, natural disasters that tend to produce spatially concentrated impacts, such as flows of hot ash and rock fragments from volcanoes, will not usually overwhelm urban transport systems, compared to the more widespread impacts of earthquakes, hurricanes or catastrophic flooding. Drought is more likely to undermine economic activity indirectly rather than lead to property damage and therefore may cause a loss of industrial productivity, but with little impact on productive infrastructure. Human-made disasters tend to have systemic impacts on cities through damage to, or isolation of, critical infrastructure such as transport and communication systems, but are less destructive of housing. Powerful players can move indirect economic losses around the urban economy. This was the case in Kobe (Japan) following the 1995 earthquake. Here, major producers, such as Toyota Motor Corporation and Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd, used a ‘just-in-time’ stocking approach. Following the earthquake, damage to subcontractors threatened to hold back production. The major producers were able to protect themselves by shifting to new subcontractors within a few days. This strategy passed risk on from the major producers to the subcontractors who had to cope with a double burden of disaster impacts and lost contracts. Many faced bankruptcy as a result. 32 Larger developed urban/national economies with sizeable foreign currency reserves, high proportions of insured assets, comprehensive social services and diversified production are more likely to absorb and spread the economic burden of disaster impacts. An example of large economic losses in an urban region that were contained comes from the 1999 Marmara earthquake in Turkey. Direct losses were estimated at US$2 billion for industrial facilities, US$5 billion for buildings and US$1.4 billion for infrastructure, including a similar figure for losses generated through lost production during the many months required for factories and industrial facilities to return to their pre-disaster production levels. 33 However, only seven months after the disaster, a downturn in the rate of inflation and declining interest rates for government borrowing indicated that the Turkish economy had made a fast recovery. 34 There is also growing potential for cities connected to regional or global financial systems (e.g. Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro, Johannesburg, Bangkok, Manila, Seoul and Singapore) to spread the negative consequences of disaster across the global economy, with huge systemic loss effects. Evidence for what has become known as the ‘contagion effect’ can be seen from the losses incurred following the Kobe earthquake in 1995. While world stock markets were unaffected, the Japanese stock market lost over 10 per cent of its value in the medium term. The duration of negative effects on stock markets depends upon wider consumer confidence. Munich Re considers human-made disasters to be worse than natural disasters for the international market. More catastrophic might be a disaster (or series of disasters) that damages the global trading infrastructure. It is for this reason that financial institutions and businesses invest heavily in back-up systems. 35 For urban residents, systemic economic effects may not be felt for some time as businesses restructure, although in the short term, unemployment or livelihood disruption is to be expected and may be prolonged. Shelter and labour power are the two most important assets for low-income urban households. When either is damaged or destroyed in disaster, households are forced to expend savings or borrow to survive and re-establish livelihoods. Relief aid itself can distort local livelihoods and markets as goods and services that can be provided locally are undercut and replaced by externally sourced aid. The result is that local livelihoods and the local economy can be eroded. For households with strong familial or social ties, access to remittances or borrowing money without interest payments is a possibility. Increasingly, access to remittances from overseas is a key indicator of resilience to economic shocks caused by natural and human-made disasters in urban Latin America. ■ Urban land markets Disaster impacts, risk of disaster impacts and actions taken to protect areas from disaster risk all have an impact on urban land values. As in any urban regeneration or upgrading scheme, urban planning and engineering projects aiming to mitigate disaster exposure can lead to changes in the social geography of communities or city regions. Investing in mitigation to protect those at risk can result in increases in the value of land and housing, which, in turn, can lead to lower-income households selling to higherincome households. This cycle is a major challenge to the poverty reduction potential of investments in structural mitigation. Informal, illegal and formal/legal land and Larger developed urban/national economies … are more likely to absorb and spread the economic burden of disaster impacts Disaster impacts, risk of disaster impacts and actions taken to protect areas from disaster risk … have an impact on urban land values
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ENHANCING URBAN SAFETY AND SECURITY
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First published by Earthscan in the
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INTRODUCTION Enhancing Urban Safety
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The preparation of
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x Enhancing Urban Safety and Securi
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xviii Enhancing Urban Safety and Se
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LIST OF FIGURES, BOXES AND TABLES F
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4 Understanding Urban Safety and Se
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1 CHAPTER CURRENT THREATS TO URBAN
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Current threats to urban safety and
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2 CHAPTER VULNERABILITY, RISK AND R
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29 simply ‘give up’ in the face
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46 Urban crime and violence Box II.
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48 Urban crime and violence it has
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50 Urban crime and violence Formal
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52 Urban crime and violence Contact
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54 Urban crime and violence Per 100
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56 Urban crime and violence Burglar
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58 Urban crime and violence Percent
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60 Urban crime and violence Figure
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62 Urban crime and violence Table 3
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64 Urban crime and violence Youth g
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68 Urban crime and violence Type of
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70 Urban crime and violence From a
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72 Urban crime and violence One vio
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74 Urban crime and violence High ho
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76 Urban crime and violence Abused
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78 Urban crime and violence General
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82 Urban crime and violence porate
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4 CHAPTER URBAN CRIME AND VIOLENCE:
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86 Urban crime and violence UN-Habi
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88 Urban crime and violence Box 4.2
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90 Urban crime and violence Box 4.4
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92 Urban crime and violence Legisla
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94 Urban crime and violence above w
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96 Urban crime and violence Campaig
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98 Urban crime and violence Availab
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100 Urban crime and violence Box 4.
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102 Urban crime and violence In som
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104 Urban crime and violence Initia
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106 Urban crime and violence The mo
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108 Urban crime and violence Vander
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112 Security of tenure Box III.1 Se
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5 CHAPTER SECURITY OF TENURE: CONDI
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116 Security of tenure Table 5.1 A
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118 Security of tenure Fully legal
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120 Security of tenure Box 5.4 Secu
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122 Security of tenure Urban tenure
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124 Security of tenure At least 2 m
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126 Security of tenure Market-based
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228 Natural and human-made disaster
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236 Towards safer and more secure c
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12 CHAPTER MITIGATING THE IMPACTS O
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304 Summary of case studies Since i
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306 Summary of case studies • The
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308 Summary of case studies tions w
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310 Summary of case studies environ
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312 Summary of case studies others.
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314 Summary of case studies purpose
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316 Summary of case studies These e
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318 Summary of case studies develop
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320 Summary of case studies tion ex
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322 Summary of case studies Housing
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324 Summary of case studies Prolong
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326 Summary of case studies momentu
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330 Statistical annex Islands, Micr
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332 Statistical annex NOMENCLATURE
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334 Statistical annex Population, u
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336 Statistical annex SOURCES OF DA
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INDEX ACHR (Asian Coalition for Hou
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Index 435 security of tenure 134 co
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Index 437 domestic abuse see intima
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Index 439 hazard management 169 haz
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Index 441 Kosovo, security of tenur
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Index 443 participation 38, 296-299
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Index 445 individual 34-35 municipa
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Index 447 gun ownership 78 Homeless
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