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Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS

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Disaster risk: C<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s, trends and impacts<br />

169<br />

Rio de Janeiro might be c<strong>on</strong>sidered a small event by urban<br />

authorities; but the same event in the much smaller city of<br />

Castries, Saint Lucia, may well be c<strong>on</strong>sidered of nati<strong>on</strong>al<br />

significance. Table 7.1 outlines those characteristics that can<br />

be used more objectively to identify similarities and differences<br />

between small and large disasters.<br />

<strong>Human</strong> vulnerability also plays a large role in determining<br />

the scale of disaster. Small hazard events can be<br />

turned into large disasters where high vulnerability means<br />

many people are at risk, emergency resp<strong>on</strong>se is inadequate<br />

and critical infrastructure is fragile. Where vulnerability is<br />

low, emergency services are adequate and critical infrastructure<br />

is resilient, large disasters can be avoided even from<br />

large hazards.<br />

Successive disasters can reduce the resilience of<br />

people or households to subsequent shocks and stresses.<br />

Small disasters can pave the way for large events by eroding<br />

people’s assets and the integrity of critical infrastructure,<br />

progressively lowering society’s thresholds of resilience. 2<br />

Large events that damage critical infrastructure or urban<br />

ec<strong>on</strong>omies will similarly undermine the capacity of individuals<br />

or emergency services to resist even<br />

everyday hazards, potentially making small disasters more<br />

frequent.<br />

Everyday hazards may be hard to avoid for those at<br />

risk and, indeed, become an intrinsic part of livelihood and<br />

survival strategies. In this way, everyday hazards and small<br />

disaster losses can mistakenly become accepted as an<br />

expected part of life. In turn, this can have the perverse<br />

effect of lowering the willingness of individuals at risk or<br />

development agencies to invest in risk reducti<strong>on</strong>, 3 thus<br />

creating a vicious circle where poverty and marginalizati<strong>on</strong><br />

coincide with disaster risk.<br />

Everyday hazards and small disasters differ from large<br />

disasters in that they are often seen as a problem of technological<br />

efficiency and infrastructure management – in other<br />

words, as problems of development. This has two c<strong>on</strong>sequences.<br />

First, everyday hazards tend to be managed by<br />

specialists from diverse fields, including engineering,<br />

medicine, land-use planning and chemistry, making<br />

integrated risk reducti<strong>on</strong> more difficult. Sec<strong>on</strong>dly, social<br />

dimensi<strong>on</strong>s are easily overlooked by technological professi<strong>on</strong>s<br />

and planning agencies that dominate these areas of<br />

work.<br />

Episodic hazards and large disasters pose an even<br />

greater challenge to sustainable urbanizati<strong>on</strong>. This is<br />

because they are too often seen not as problems of development,<br />

but as problems for development. Predominant<br />

strategies for dealing with risk and loss from large disasters<br />

focus <strong>on</strong> emergency resp<strong>on</strong>se and rec<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> – not in<br />

addressing underlying failures in development that lead to<br />

human vulnerability. The risk reducti<strong>on</strong> approach taken by<br />

this <str<strong>on</strong>g>Global</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Report</str<strong>on</strong>g> calls for small and large disasters to be<br />

seen as problems of development, requiring changes in<br />

development paths as well as in disaster resp<strong>on</strong>se and rec<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong><br />

to build resilient human settlements.<br />

Small disasters<br />

URBANIZATION AND<br />

DISASTER RISK<br />

Large disasters<br />

Scale of risk Individuals and small groups Communities, city regi<strong>on</strong>s, cities, global<br />

Systems at risk Individual health and livelihoods, Social stability, critical infrastructure, urban<br />

subcomp<strong>on</strong>ents of critical infrastructure, ec<strong>on</strong>omies, ecosystem services<br />

local ec<strong>on</strong>omic or ecological systems<br />

Examples of associated Localized hazard events such as tidal Widespread hazard events such as a severe<br />

trigger hazard flooding or irresp<strong>on</strong>sible driving earthquake or major release of toxic chemicals<br />

Frequency of hazard event High (‘every day’) Low (‘episodic’)<br />

Strategic importance to Aggregate loss high Huge loss from individual events<br />

development planning<br />

Data sources Emergency services, local news media Nati<strong>on</strong>al and internati<strong>on</strong>al emergency relief<br />

agencies and news media<br />

Dominant actors in Family, neighbours, emergency services Family, neighbours, emergency services, military<br />

resp<strong>on</strong>se<br />

or civil defence, nati<strong>on</strong>al and internati<strong>on</strong>al<br />

humanitarian actors<br />

The last decade has seen an unprecedented number of disaster<br />

events unfold worldwide. The global incidence and<br />

impacts of disasters from 1996 <strong>on</strong>wards illustrates extensive<br />

damage both in terms of mortality and ec<strong>on</strong>omic losses (see<br />

Table 7.2). 4 Transport accidents 5 and floods were the most<br />

frequently reported disasters. Impacts were highest for<br />

natural disasters, with earthquakes and tsunamis being the<br />

deadliest. Floods and windstorms accounted for the greatest<br />

number of disaster events and also affected the greatest<br />

number of people. Windstorms were most costly compared<br />

to other disaster types. Even with a time span of ten years,<br />

comparing the frequency and impacts of disaster types can<br />

be problematic. Large infrequent events, such as the Indian<br />

Ocean Tsunami, or individual flood or earthquake events can<br />

distort aggregate measurements of impacts associated with<br />

each hazard and disaster type. Far l<strong>on</strong>ger time spans would<br />

be needed to capture infrequent disaster types. However,<br />

l<strong>on</strong>ger time spans would subject disaster impact data to the<br />

effects of changing underlying human development<br />

c<strong>on</strong>texts, including urbanizati<strong>on</strong>.<br />

In the new urban millennium, natural and humanmade<br />

disasters are likely to have their greatest impact in<br />

cities where half of humanity is expected to reside. The<br />

world will become predominantly urban, with the total<br />

urban populati<strong>on</strong> expected to reach 5 billi<strong>on</strong> by 2030, while<br />

rural populati<strong>on</strong>s will begin to c<strong>on</strong>tract from 2015 <strong>on</strong>wards. 6<br />

The locati<strong>on</strong> of major urban centres in coastal areas exposed<br />

to hydro-meteorological hazards and in geologically active<br />

z<strong>on</strong>es is an additi<strong>on</strong>al risk factor. The c<strong>on</strong>centrati<strong>on</strong> of<br />

Table 7.1<br />

Small and large disasters<br />

In the new urban<br />

millennium, natural<br />

and human-made<br />

disasters are likely<br />

to have their greatest<br />

impact in<br />

cities…<br />

Table 7.2<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>Global</str<strong>on</strong>g> extent and<br />

impacts of disasters by<br />

hazard type (total<br />

1996–2005)<br />

Source: EM-DAT, CRED<br />

database, University of<br />

Louvain, Belgium, www.emdat.net<br />

Number of Mortality People Ec<strong>on</strong>omic damage<br />

events affected (US$ milli<strong>on</strong>s, 2005 prices)<br />

Avalanches/landslides 191 7864 1801 1382<br />

Earthquakes, tsunamis 297 391,610 41,562 113,181<br />

Extreme temperatures 168 60,249 5703 16,197<br />

Floods 1310 90,237 1,292,989 208,434<br />

Volcanic erupti<strong>on</strong>s 50 262 940 59<br />

Windstorms 917 62,410 326,252 319,208<br />

Industrial accidents 505 13,962 1372 13,879<br />

Miscellaneous accidents 461 15,757 400 2541<br />

Transport accidents 2035 69,636 89 960

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