Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS
Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS
Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS
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Disaster risk: C<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s, trends and impacts<br />
169<br />
Rio de Janeiro might be c<strong>on</strong>sidered a small event by urban<br />
authorities; but the same event in the much smaller city of<br />
Castries, Saint Lucia, may well be c<strong>on</strong>sidered of nati<strong>on</strong>al<br />
significance. Table 7.1 outlines those characteristics that can<br />
be used more objectively to identify similarities and differences<br />
between small and large disasters.<br />
<strong>Human</strong> vulnerability also plays a large role in determining<br />
the scale of disaster. Small hazard events can be<br />
turned into large disasters where high vulnerability means<br />
many people are at risk, emergency resp<strong>on</strong>se is inadequate<br />
and critical infrastructure is fragile. Where vulnerability is<br />
low, emergency services are adequate and critical infrastructure<br />
is resilient, large disasters can be avoided even from<br />
large hazards.<br />
Successive disasters can reduce the resilience of<br />
people or households to subsequent shocks and stresses.<br />
Small disasters can pave the way for large events by eroding<br />
people’s assets and the integrity of critical infrastructure,<br />
progressively lowering society’s thresholds of resilience. 2<br />
Large events that damage critical infrastructure or urban<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omies will similarly undermine the capacity of individuals<br />
or emergency services to resist even<br />
everyday hazards, potentially making small disasters more<br />
frequent.<br />
Everyday hazards may be hard to avoid for those at<br />
risk and, indeed, become an intrinsic part of livelihood and<br />
survival strategies. In this way, everyday hazards and small<br />
disaster losses can mistakenly become accepted as an<br />
expected part of life. In turn, this can have the perverse<br />
effect of lowering the willingness of individuals at risk or<br />
development agencies to invest in risk reducti<strong>on</strong>, 3 thus<br />
creating a vicious circle where poverty and marginalizati<strong>on</strong><br />
coincide with disaster risk.<br />
Everyday hazards and small disasters differ from large<br />
disasters in that they are often seen as a problem of technological<br />
efficiency and infrastructure management – in other<br />
words, as problems of development. This has two c<strong>on</strong>sequences.<br />
First, everyday hazards tend to be managed by<br />
specialists from diverse fields, including engineering,<br />
medicine, land-use planning and chemistry, making<br />
integrated risk reducti<strong>on</strong> more difficult. Sec<strong>on</strong>dly, social<br />
dimensi<strong>on</strong>s are easily overlooked by technological professi<strong>on</strong>s<br />
and planning agencies that dominate these areas of<br />
work.<br />
Episodic hazards and large disasters pose an even<br />
greater challenge to sustainable urbanizati<strong>on</strong>. This is<br />
because they are too often seen not as problems of development,<br />
but as problems for development. Predominant<br />
strategies for dealing with risk and loss from large disasters<br />
focus <strong>on</strong> emergency resp<strong>on</strong>se and rec<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> – not in<br />
addressing underlying failures in development that lead to<br />
human vulnerability. The risk reducti<strong>on</strong> approach taken by<br />
this <str<strong>on</strong>g>Global</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Report</str<strong>on</strong>g> calls for small and large disasters to be<br />
seen as problems of development, requiring changes in<br />
development paths as well as in disaster resp<strong>on</strong>se and rec<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong><br />
to build resilient human settlements.<br />
Small disasters<br />
URBANIZATION AND<br />
DISASTER RISK<br />
Large disasters<br />
Scale of risk Individuals and small groups Communities, city regi<strong>on</strong>s, cities, global<br />
Systems at risk Individual health and livelihoods, Social stability, critical infrastructure, urban<br />
subcomp<strong>on</strong>ents of critical infrastructure, ec<strong>on</strong>omies, ecosystem services<br />
local ec<strong>on</strong>omic or ecological systems<br />
Examples of associated Localized hazard events such as tidal Widespread hazard events such as a severe<br />
trigger hazard flooding or irresp<strong>on</strong>sible driving earthquake or major release of toxic chemicals<br />
Frequency of hazard event High (‘every day’) Low (‘episodic’)<br />
Strategic importance to Aggregate loss high Huge loss from individual events<br />
development planning<br />
Data sources Emergency services, local news media Nati<strong>on</strong>al and internati<strong>on</strong>al emergency relief<br />
agencies and news media<br />
Dominant actors in Family, neighbours, emergency services Family, neighbours, emergency services, military<br />
resp<strong>on</strong>se<br />
or civil defence, nati<strong>on</strong>al and internati<strong>on</strong>al<br />
humanitarian actors<br />
The last decade has seen an unprecedented number of disaster<br />
events unfold worldwide. The global incidence and<br />
impacts of disasters from 1996 <strong>on</strong>wards illustrates extensive<br />
damage both in terms of mortality and ec<strong>on</strong>omic losses (see<br />
Table 7.2). 4 Transport accidents 5 and floods were the most<br />
frequently reported disasters. Impacts were highest for<br />
natural disasters, with earthquakes and tsunamis being the<br />
deadliest. Floods and windstorms accounted for the greatest<br />
number of disaster events and also affected the greatest<br />
number of people. Windstorms were most costly compared<br />
to other disaster types. Even with a time span of ten years,<br />
comparing the frequency and impacts of disaster types can<br />
be problematic. Large infrequent events, such as the Indian<br />
Ocean Tsunami, or individual flood or earthquake events can<br />
distort aggregate measurements of impacts associated with<br />
each hazard and disaster type. Far l<strong>on</strong>ger time spans would<br />
be needed to capture infrequent disaster types. However,<br />
l<strong>on</strong>ger time spans would subject disaster impact data to the<br />
effects of changing underlying human development<br />
c<strong>on</strong>texts, including urbanizati<strong>on</strong>.<br />
In the new urban millennium, natural and humanmade<br />
disasters are likely to have their greatest impact in<br />
cities where half of humanity is expected to reside. The<br />
world will become predominantly urban, with the total<br />
urban populati<strong>on</strong> expected to reach 5 billi<strong>on</strong> by 2030, while<br />
rural populati<strong>on</strong>s will begin to c<strong>on</strong>tract from 2015 <strong>on</strong>wards. 6<br />
The locati<strong>on</strong> of major urban centres in coastal areas exposed<br />
to hydro-meteorological hazards and in geologically active<br />
z<strong>on</strong>es is an additi<strong>on</strong>al risk factor. The c<strong>on</strong>centrati<strong>on</strong> of<br />
Table 7.1<br />
Small and large disasters<br />
In the new urban<br />
millennium, natural<br />
and human-made<br />
disasters are likely<br />
to have their greatest<br />
impact in<br />
cities…<br />
Table 7.2<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>Global</str<strong>on</strong>g> extent and<br />
impacts of disasters by<br />
hazard type (total<br />
1996–2005)<br />
Source: EM-DAT, CRED<br />
database, University of<br />
Louvain, Belgium, www.emdat.net<br />
Number of Mortality People Ec<strong>on</strong>omic damage<br />
events affected (US$ milli<strong>on</strong>s, 2005 prices)<br />
Avalanches/landslides 191 7864 1801 1382<br />
Earthquakes, tsunamis 297 391,610 41,562 113,181<br />
Extreme temperatures 168 60,249 5703 16,197<br />
Floods 1310 90,237 1,292,989 208,434<br />
Volcanic erupti<strong>on</strong>s 50 262 940 59<br />
Windstorms 917 62,410 326,252 319,208<br />
Industrial accidents 505 13,962 1372 13,879<br />
Miscellaneous accidents 461 15,757 400 2541<br />
Transport accidents 2035 69,636 89 960