Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS

Current threats to urban safety and security
21
criminal desires is to be an object of study. The clandestine
character of criminal behaviour therefore ‘masks’ much of
the important data about motivation and dynamics of crime
itself. The impact of individual crimes on victims is easier to
document.
All of this suggests that devoting more effort to understanding
the contexts in which challenges to urban safety
and security occur would be a significant first step towards
improving evidence. Here it should be possible to build on
already shared conclusions about existing trends. For
example, if it is known that increased demographic growth
will create a growing housing shortage in cities in developing
countries, there should be no surprise that more and more
people will illegally occupy public and private land (some of
it vulnerable to natural hazards) because they have no legal
alternatives. This will exacerbate the problem of insecurity
of tenure. It can be expected that people do not break rules
and risk punishment if they have other ways of meeting their
needs. 85 Unless sound policy is developed to increase access
to tenure security, it is reasonable to expect more difficulties
for the urban poor and the increasing probability of more
forced evictions.
Methodologies and public understanding
While perception and evidence can be obstacles to improving
public understanding, there are also significant problems
in methods of analysis, as discussed later in this <strong>Global</strong>
<strong>Report</strong>. Methodological problems can be grouped into the
following categories:
• defining issues relevant to discussing the three threats
to urban safety and security addressed in this report;
• specifying origins and sequences of causation;
• describing agents, whether perpetrators of crime;
individuals or institutions affecting security of tenure or
carrying out evictions; or individuals or institutions
involved in preparedness, mitigation or recovery from
disasters;
• identifying victims;
• measuring impact;
• establishing typologies of impact;
• identifying loci of responsibility;
• establishing the basis for comparative analysis; and
• identifying effective forms of prevention or good
practice.
All three of these challenges to urban safety and security
reflect policy failures, inadequate institutional capacity at
both national and local government levels, and insufficient
public education for analysis of risk and probabilities of
threats to urban safety and security, preparedness, response
and remedy. The responsibility for these inadequacies,
however, is not strictly limited to urban policies directly
concerned with human settlements, and particularly slums,
but also reflects constraints imposed by macro-economic
policies and, indeed, the impacts of the global economy.
The issues, however, go far beyond financial
resources. They are rooted in ideas, public perceptions of
these issues, and cultural values and understandings of how
the world works. Everyone thinks that they understand
these three issues; therefore, conventional wisdom develops
and becomes the basis for public action. Unfortunately, that
conventional wisdom is not always correct and may, in fact,
inhibit finding effective solutions. Indeed, it remains to be
seen whether conventional wisdom itself is correctible by
forceful public leadership and effective public education.
This <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Report</strong> seeks to present an analytic framework
and policy recommendations to address these problems.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
This chapter has provided an overview of the three threats to
urban safety and security that constitute the theme of this
report. It is apparent from experiences in cities around the
world that some cities are able to stand up and respond to
these threats better than others. Chapter 2 will present a
conceptual framework based on the two ideas of vulnerability
and resilience, which are useful in explaining threats to
urban safety and security and in developing public policy
options for enhancing urban safety and security, respectively.
Societies can build the needed resilience required to
overcome crime and violence, insecurity of tenure and disasters.
Some cities such as Medellin (Colombia), Daidema
(Brazil), or New York (US) have demonstrated that crime and
violence can be reduced. Increased global recognition of the
human right to secure tenure represents a large step forward
towards reducing tenure insecurity. The success of grassroots
movements in many countries, notably the Slum
Dwellers Federation, which started in India, and is now
active in South Africa and the Philippines, among other
countries, shows that citizen action can play a critical role in
this process. Similarly, the experiences of countries after
disasters demonstrate that knowledge and education can
enhance preparedness. The experience of The Netherlands
since the flooding of 1953 shows that it is possible to anticipate
flooding through building dikes and investing in
institutional and societal learning. 86 Likewise, the response
of Kobe to the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake demonstrates
how rebuilding can provide the opportunity to
achieve a much higher level of security through attention to
building methods and a stronger building code. 87 Cuba has
developed effective procedures for quick evacuation of
Havana 88 and other urban areas in the face of repeated hurricanes.
Women’s organizations in disaster-affected areas have
all demonstrated that they can respond to the disaster, but
also advance the cause of social and community reform. 89
Each of these areas of risk and vulnerability also contain
what has been called ‘spaces of hope’. 90
While perception
and evidence can be
obstacles to improving
public
understanding,
there are also
significant problems
in methods of
analysis
Societies can build
the needed
resilience required
to overcome crime
and violence,
insecurity of tenure
and disasters