Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS
Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS
Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS
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Disaster risk: C<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s, trends and impacts<br />
189<br />
in the same sites without risk reducti<strong>on</strong> measures, losses<br />
recur. A great less<strong>on</strong> was learned in Rio de Janeiro when<br />
local landslides caused 1000 deaths in 1966, after which<br />
houses were rec<strong>on</strong>structed at the original sites and 1700<br />
people were killed the following year. 96 Relocating disaster<br />
survivors away from hazardous sites is also problematic.<br />
Social and ec<strong>on</strong>omic networks are not easy to maintain after<br />
relocati<strong>on</strong>, and the loss of these assets, combined with<br />
potentially higher transport costs to find work or educati<strong>on</strong><br />
and health services, can put an additi<strong>on</strong>al strain <strong>on</strong> individuals<br />
and households, thus undermining resilience.<br />
Internati<strong>on</strong>al development policy and<br />
urban disaster risk<br />
Urban planning is influenced by nati<strong>on</strong>al and internati<strong>on</strong>al<br />
development frameworks and priorities. The Millennium<br />
Development Goals (MDGs) have had a great impact <strong>on</strong><br />
prioritizing the internati<strong>on</strong>al development agenda. The most<br />
urban focused goal, target 11 of MDG 7, demands that a<br />
significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 milli<strong>on</strong><br />
slum dwellers is achieved by 2020. This is an important<br />
motor for pro-poor urban planning, and efforts to improve<br />
the lives of slum dwellers should take natural and humanmade<br />
disaster risk into account. There is scope here for<br />
indicators of urban vulnerability to disaster risk to c<strong>on</strong>tribute<br />
to a more holistic assessment of quality of life.<br />
Meeting other MDGs will also be hindered if disaster<br />
risk reducti<strong>on</strong> is not made more prominent in urban<br />
planning. The great potential for disasters that hit urban<br />
areas to destroy critical infrastructure and set back development<br />
gains can undermine progress in meeting MDG 1,<br />
which calls for the halving, between 1990 and 2015, of the<br />
proporti<strong>on</strong> of people whose income is less than US$1 per<br />
day. MDG 2 calls for governments to ensure that, by 2015,<br />
children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to<br />
complete a full course of primary schooling. A great deal of<br />
investment has been made in building new primary schools;<br />
but <strong>on</strong>ly seldom are they designed to disaster-resistant<br />
standards. The result is that more children are placed at risk<br />
and development gains are liable to be lost. In the Pereira<br />
earthquake in Colombia in 1999, 74 per cent of the regi<strong>on</strong>’s<br />
schools were damaged. 97<br />
Urban risk accumulati<strong>on</strong> was accelerated by the debt<br />
crisis and subsequent structural adjustment programmes of<br />
the 1980s and 1990s that forced governments throughout<br />
Latin America, Asia and Africa to slash subsidies <strong>on</strong> food,<br />
electricity and transportati<strong>on</strong> and to retrench public-sector<br />
workers. The impact of these policies was perhaps most<br />
visible in the food riots of sub-Saharan Africa, triggered by<br />
the removal of subsidies <strong>on</strong> the price of food. 98 Poor people<br />
resp<strong>on</strong>ded to the ec<strong>on</strong>omic downturn by putting more<br />
family members (especially women and school-age children)<br />
into the labour market and by pulling back from l<strong>on</strong>g-term<br />
investments in children’s educati<strong>on</strong> and in housing improvement,<br />
in this way reducing l<strong>on</strong>g-term resilience to disaster.<br />
In additi<strong>on</strong>, the cumulative impact of inequality and privatizati<strong>on</strong><br />
may have further removed poor people from<br />
accessing legal land markets, leading to the proliferati<strong>on</strong> of<br />
informal settlements, often in cheap and hazardous<br />
locati<strong>on</strong>s.<br />
During the early 21st century, World Bank lending has<br />
been repackaged, with the stated aim of enabling greater<br />
country leadership through nati<strong>on</strong>al poverty reducti<strong>on</strong><br />
strategies, initially proposed through nati<strong>on</strong>al Poverty<br />
Reducti<strong>on</strong> Strategy Papers (PRSPs). Yet, little work has<br />
examined the c<strong>on</strong>sequence of the PRSP framework for<br />
natural disaster reducti<strong>on</strong>. One study found that few<br />
nati<strong>on</strong>al plans menti<strong>on</strong>ed disaster risk reducti<strong>on</strong> bey<strong>on</strong>d the<br />
need for early warning. With many municipal and city administrati<strong>on</strong>s<br />
having uncomfortable political relati<strong>on</strong>ships with<br />
nati<strong>on</strong>al administrati<strong>on</strong>s, the extent to which PRSPs enable<br />
or c<strong>on</strong>strain municipal government c<strong>on</strong>trol over financial<br />
budgets and access to internati<strong>on</strong>al support will have a<br />
profound impact <strong>on</strong> urban development and disaster risk<br />
reducti<strong>on</strong>. This falls short of an integrated risk reducti<strong>on</strong><br />
approach. 99<br />
Half of all post-disaster borrowing provided by the<br />
World Bank goes to housing rec<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong>. A recent review<br />
of rec<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> financing argues that this practice exposes<br />
funds to capture by local and nati<strong>on</strong>al elites, thus c<strong>on</strong>tributing<br />
to urban inequality and vulnerability in ways that other<br />
targets for rec<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> funds that would remain as public<br />
goods (such as critical infrastructure) might not. 100<br />
Opportunities for disaster rec<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> funding to<br />
c<strong>on</strong>tribute to the building of urban resilience have too often<br />
been missed by urban, nati<strong>on</strong>al and internati<strong>on</strong>al agencies.<br />
Where nati<strong>on</strong>al catastrophe funds are not available, funds<br />
earmarked for development works are vulnerable to being<br />
diverted to finance rec<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong>. This is a principal<br />
pathway for the indirect systemic impacts of disaster.<br />
Internati<strong>on</strong>al finance has similarly c<strong>on</strong>tributed in the past to<br />
the perpetuati<strong>on</strong> of cycles of urban poverty, envir<strong>on</strong>mental<br />
degradati<strong>on</strong> and disaster through disaster rec<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong><br />
loan agreements that have increased indebtedness, reducing<br />
opti<strong>on</strong>s for future ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth or anti-poverty policy. 101<br />
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF<br />
GLOBAL TRENDS<br />
This secti<strong>on</strong> provides a comparative analysis of urban disaster<br />
incidence and impact for each world regi<strong>on</strong>: Africa, the<br />
Americas, Asia, Europe and Oceania. This scale of analysis<br />
covers great diversity at the nati<strong>on</strong>al and sub-nati<strong>on</strong>al levels,<br />
but is useful in flagging the major natural and human-made<br />
disasters affecting human settlements and the barriers to<br />
disaster preventi<strong>on</strong> and mitigati<strong>on</strong> specific to each regi<strong>on</strong>.<br />
Africa<br />
Flooding is the most frequent natural disaster type in Africa<br />
and results in the highest mortality (see Table 7.9).<br />
Earthquakes, floods and storms cause the greatest ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
loss and drought affects the most people. Food insecurity<br />
resulting from drought can affect urban societies indirectly<br />
through food price fluctuati<strong>on</strong> and the in-migrati<strong>on</strong> of<br />
refugees. Ec<strong>on</strong>omic loss to disasters is low for Africa,<br />
…efforts to improve<br />
the lives of slum<br />
dwellers should take<br />
natural and humanmade<br />
disaster risk<br />
into account<br />
Meeting … MDGs<br />
will … be hindered<br />
if disaster risk<br />
reducti<strong>on</strong> is not<br />
made more<br />
prominent in urban<br />
planning