Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS

2
CHAPTER
VULNERABILITY, RISK AND
RESILIENCE: TOWARDS A
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
This chapter presents a conceptual framework for understanding
urban safety and security issues that relies on the
concept of vulnerability. Vulnerability, as an analytical framework,
has during recent years been increasingly used in a
number of disciplines, including economics (especially in the
study of poverty, sustainable livelihoods and food security),
sociology and social anthropology, disaster management,
environmental science, and health and nutrition. 1 In these
disciplines, vulnerability is often reduced to three fundamental
elements – namely, risk, response and outcome,
while the last two elements, in particular, are determined by
the extent of resilience at various levels (i.e. individual,
household, community, city and national levels).
This chapter starts by defining and discussing the
concept of vulnerability, together with its components of
risk, response and outcome, as well as the related concept of
resilience. Together, these ideas constitute the building
blocks towards a conceptual framework for analysing the
three threats to urban safety and security addressed in this
<strong>Global</strong> <strong>Report</strong> – that is, crime and violence, insecurity of
tenure and forced eviction, as well as natural and humanmade
disasters. This is followed by a discussion of the risk
factors underlying these threats to urban safety and security,
which are examined at various geographic or spatial levels:
global, national, urban, neighbourhood or community,
household and individual. Thereafter, the concept of
resilience is discussed in relation to the three threats to
urban safety and security that constitute the theme of this
report. Of particular importance in this section is the identification
of the challenges of overcoming institutional
weaknesses and building capacity, and how this can be
achieved through what might be called ‘pathways to
resilience’. A clear understanding of the risk factors at
various geographic levels, in relation to the concept of
resilience, is essential for the formulation and implementation
of effective policies for enhancing urban safety and
security. Finally, the role of urban policy, planning, design
and governance in enhancing urban safety and security is
discussed briefly, thus providing a rationale for the choice of
‘urban safety and security’ as a theme for a <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Report</strong>
written from a human settlements perspective.
VULNERABILITY AND
RELATED CONCEPTS
Vulnerability may be defined as the probability of an individual,
a household or a community falling below a minimum
level of welfare (e.g. poverty line), or the probability of
suffering physical and socio-economic consequences (such
as homelessness or physical injury) as a result of risky events
and processes (such as forced eviction, crime or a flood) and
their inability to effectively cope with such risky events and
processes. The logical sequence is that individuals, households
and communities are vulnerable to suffering negative
outcomes or consequences, and the level of vulnerability
(which is sometimes measurable) comes from exposure to
risk and the ability or inability to respond to or cope with
that risk. Distinctions can be made between physical vulnerability
(vulnerability in the built environment) and social
vulnerability (vulnerability experienced by people and their
social, economic and political systems). Together they constitute
human vulnerability. 2
As pointed out earlier, the concept of vulnerability is
better understood by dividing it into the ‘risk chain’
elements of risk, risk response and outcome. 3 Risk refers to a
known or unknown probability distribution of events – for
example, natural hazards such as floods or earthquakes. The
extent to which risks affect vulnerability is dependent upon
their size and spread (magnitude), as well as their frequency
and duration.
Risk response refers to the ways in which individuals,
households, communities and cities respond to, or manage,
risk. Risk management may be in the form of ex ante or ex
post actions – that is, preventive action taken before the
risky event, and action taken to deal with experienced losses
after the risky event, respectively. Ex ante actions taken in
advance in order to mitigate the undesirable consequences
of risky events may include purchase of personal or home
insurance to provide compensation in case of theft, injury or
damage to property; building strong social networks able to
cope with risky events or hazards; and effective land-use
planning and design of buildings and infrastructure able to
The concept of
vulnerability is
better understood
by dividing it into
the ‘risk-chain’
elements of risk,
risk response and
outcome