Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS

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192 Natural and human-made disasters Table 7.12 Disaster incidence and impacts in Europe (1996–2005) Note: For all disaster types, small events with less than 10 mortalities or 100 affected people are not included. Source: EM-DAT, CRED database, University of Louvain, Belgium, www.emdat.net Number of events Mortality People affected (thousands) Economic loss (US$ million, 2005 value) Avalanches/landslides 18 389 14 20 Drought/famines 14 0 1063 8019 Earthquakes/tsunamis 52 18,584 4016 29,609 Extreme temperatures 79 48,630 771 6706 Floods 229 1422 5048 47,860 Volcanic eruptions 2 0 0 24 Windstorms 110 610 7025 18,138 Industrial accidents 56 844 71 11,100 Miscellaneous accidents 73 1474 14 874 Oceania records the lowest incidence of disasters for any region and hazard type… Europe The role played by relatively high levels of economic development and political stability in shifting the impact of disasters from human to physical assets can be seen most clearly in this region (see Table 7.12). This is exemplified by volcanic eruptions, where Europe suffers the highest economic losses of any region, but no people have been killed or affected. Vulnerability and human loss is highest, compared to other world regions, for extreme temperature events. Between 1996 and 2005, Europe experienced 47 per cent of all extreme temperature events, but 81 per cent of all mortalities. Compared with Europe, the Americas experienced less than half the number of extreme weather events, with comparatively few deaths, but four times the number affected. This reflects the different severity of events, but also greater investment in early warning and response for extreme temperature in the Americas. Within Europe, floods were the most common disaster between 1996 and 2005. Mortality was highest for extreme temperatures, with around 35,000 premature deaths from the 2003 heat wave alone. 105 Europe is a high-income and highly urbanized region. Risk profiles for this region are split between the east and west. Western Europe has strong states and civil societies providing good capacity for resilience. It is also a region with relatively low levels of hazard exposure. Eastern Europe is more variable, with examples of strong states but weak civil society, and with governance challenges that limit regulation of industrial activity and capacity for top-down programmes aimed at vulnerability reduction. This region is also economically poorer than Western Europe. Oceania Oceania records the lowest incidence of disasters for any region and hazard type, with the exception of volcanic eruption (see Table 7.13). This is the only region not to record any industrial accidents from 1996 to 2005. The region had the lowest economic losses and absolute number of people killed and affected by all disaster types. Within the region, disasters are most commonly associated with windstorms, and these result in the greatest economic losses. Earthquakes and tsunamis account for the highest levels of mortality. The region is of mixed economic status, but with high levels of urbanization. Poorer countries also tend to have greater political tensions, often between indigenous and immigrant populations. Many are small island developing states facing particular governance challenges within a context of limited human resources. Larger countries, especially New Zealand and Australia, have strong states and civil societies, as well as robust economies. Yet, inequality undermines resilience in these multicultural societies. For low-lying small island states, sea-level rise due to climate change will have catastrophic implications. CONCLUDING REMARKS Urban disasters are a product of failed urban governance and planning. Wealth is necessary for building resilience at the local and city levels, but is not sufficient in the absence of governance. Without good governance and open participation in urban planning, economic development too often leads to inequality and failures to implement regulation in the industrial and residential sectors. The relationships between urbanization and disaster risk are dynamic. Past urban civilizations have collapsed Table 7.13 Disaster incidence and impacts in Oceania (1996–2005) Note: For all disaster types, small events with less than 10 mortalities or 100 affected people are not included. Source: EM-DAT, CRED database, University of Louvain, Belgium, www.emdat.net Number of events Mortality People affected (thousands) Economic loss (US$ million, 2005 value) Avalanches/landslides 8 128 1 No data Drought/famines 8 88 1083 329 Earthquakes/tsunamis 9 2201 36 No data Extreme temperatures 1 0 0 221 Floods 38 34 96 1735 Volcanic eruptions 7 4 49 No data Windstorms 72 255 832 2859 Industrial accidents 0 0 0 No data Miscellaneous accidents 4 46 12 No data
Disaster risk: Conditions, trends and impacts 193 because of overstretching the ecological basis of their economies, leading to political conflict and terminal decline. Future new risks might include those associated with global environmental change and also with the increasing connectivity of urban centres worldwide that enables the transmission of economic impacts through transport and finance networks. <strong>Global</strong> hazard maps can be used to indicate the distribution of risk. Richer countries are most at risk from absolute economic loss, whereas poorer countries suffer more human loss, as well as economic loss, as a proportion of GDP. Human-made risk and recorded loss is greatest in low-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The largest concentrations of urban populations, in megacities, represent focal points for urban risk, especially those cities exposed to multiple hazards and with limited capacity for risk management. Disaster impacts are seldom fully measured. This is a particular problem for cities since they house much of the accumulated cultural heritage of the world. Direct economic loss from damage and human impacts can be accounted for; but longer-term impacts on economies, or individual loss and psychological trauma, are much more difficult to measure. Disaster losses are often compounded when one event triggers a secondary event, or when recovery and reconstruction activities lead to ecological damage and social disruption. The social and political impacts of disasters are especially sensitive to reconstruction, with this being an opportunity for improvements in governance, as well as in basic needs. This chapter identified the following aspects of urbanization that shape disaster risk: 1 Large cities and megacities concentrate and magnify risk. 2 Smaller cities (less than 500,000 residents) that are home to just over half of the world’s urban population also experience exposure to multiple risks, but are likely to have limited formal capacity and organized civil society with which to build resilience. 3 Ongoing demographic and social changes in cities are a challenge since social groups at risk may alter, requiring flexibility in disaster management. Nevertheless, the economically poor, politically marginalized and socially isolated (often women) are consistently the most vulnerable. 4 Urbanization processes modify the hazard profile of the city directly – for example, through the urbanization of hill slopes and floodplains – but also indirectly as the impacts of climate change hit cities (the sites for a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions). 5 Building standards are in place in almost all cities, but they are seldom implemented. This, more than any other policy challenge, highlights the need for social policy to connect with technical and engineering solutions to risk management. 6 The increasing numbers of urban residents forced to live in slums and squatter settlements is an indication of the depth of failure of urban governance to provide even the most basic needs and to protect the political, social, economic and cultural rights of all. Slums and squatter settlements are places of great hazard, but also of great potential. Governance structures that can partner with this local energy can reduce risk. 7 Urban planning is seriously under capacity in most cities. It is almost impossible for many planning departments to keep pace with rapid urbanization. New techniques in urban planning are needed that can extend formal practices into the informal housing sector. Meeting the MDGs is dependent upon this. Taking urban disaster risk management seriously requires an integrated approach. For this reason, it is of concern that very few national Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers include risk management. Although it is not unusual for urban plans to integrate hazard mitigation, the next step is to match this with a commitment for vulnerability reduction that includes relevant social and economic policy. Comparing urban risk at the regional scale re-emphasizes the centrality of urban governance as a driver for urban risk profiles. In those cities where strong government and civil society sectors take risk reduction seriously, great gains can be made. NOTES 1 One exception is the Australian government, which defines a small disaster as one where state expenditure (on all assistance measures) does not exceed AU$240,000 (US$185,500), roughly equivalent to the cost of repairing 20 houses. 2 Kasperson et al, 1996. 3 Blaikie et al, 1994. 4 Data is drawn from the EM- DAT, CRED database. Only events that exceed a minimum threshold of 10 deaths, 100 people affected or a call for international assistance or declaration of a state of emergency are included. Consequently, many small disasters will have been excluded. This is likely to have affected data on transport and is also reflected in the absence of a category for house fires. 5 This is a term used in EM- DAT, CRED to describe accidents involving mechanized modes of transport. It comprises of four disaster subsets involving air, boat, rail and road accidents. 6 The current millennium has been dubbed the ‘urban millennium’ given that, in 2007, for the first time in history, the world’s urban population will equal the rural population (UN- Habitat, 2006e). 7 Kreimer et al, 2003. 8 IFRC, 2003. 9 Ibid. 10 A global geography of natural disaster risk based on exposed populations and past losses (1980 to 2001) illustrates that both predominantly rural and urban regions are at risk worldwide. Loss to hydrological hazard (floods, landslides and hurricanes) is most widespread, affecting human settlements in China, Southeast Asia and Central America, and in a band from Eastern Europe through Central and Eastern Asia. Loss to geological hazard (earthquakes and volcano eruptions) is most concentrated in Central Asia and the Mediterranean and Pacific Rim states (e.g. Japan, the US and Central America). The Americas show variable loss, with low levels of loss in North America. Central Asia is exposed to losses from the greatest number of hazard types. Likewise, the Black Sea region, Central America and Japan face multiple hazards. Data from Dilley et al, 2005; maps also adapted from this source. 11 Ibid. 12 Ibid. 13 EM-DAT, CRED, University of Louvain, Belgium,
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ENHANCING URBAN SAFETY AND SECURITY
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First published by Earthscan in the
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INTRODUCTION Enhancing Urban Safety
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The preparation of
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x Enhancing Urban Safety and Securi
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LIST OF FIGURES, BOXES AND TABLES F
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1 CHAPTER CURRENT THREATS TO URBAN
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46 Urban crime and violence Box II.
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60 Urban crime and violence Figure
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5 CHAPTER SECURITY OF TENURE: CONDI
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116 Security of tenure Table 5.1 A
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122 Security of tenure Urban tenure
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124 Security of tenure At least 2 m
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126 Security of tenure Market-based
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128 Security of tenure Box 5.11 Urb
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330 Statistical annex Islands, Micr
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332 Statistical annex NOMENCLATURE
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334 Statistical annex Population, u
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INDEX ACHR (Asian Coalition for Hou
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Index 435 security of tenure 134 co
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Index 437 domestic abuse see intima
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Index 441 Kosovo, security of tenur
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Index 443 participation 38, 296-299
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Index 445 individual 34-35 municipa
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Index 447 gun ownership 78 Homeless
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