Global Report on Human Settlements 2007 - PoA-ISS

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290 Towards safer and more secure cities The greatest challenge is to … ensure that early warnings are communicated and acted on in a timely manner Urban settlements offer opportunities as well as challenges for early warning Indeed, 21 of the 33 cities that are projected to have a population of 8 million or more by 2015 are located in coastal zones. 40 Perhaps most challenging of all is sea-level rise. The scale of risk is enormous: 41 • In Japan, a 1 metre sea-level rise would expand areas at risk 2.7 times to 2339 square kilometres, and increase population and assets at risk to 4.1 million and 109 trillion Japanese yen, 42 respectively. • In Egypt, a 50 centimetre sea-level rise would affect 2 million people and 214,000 jobs, and would result in the loss of US$35 billion in land value, property and tourism income. • In Poland, a 1 metre sea-level rise would cause US$30 billion of land to be lost to the sea, and put US$18 billion of assets and land at risk of flooding. It is estimated that coastal protection would cost US$6 billion. Adapting now to future climate change is difficult because of the uncertainty in forecasting and a tendency for conservative estimates of future change. This makes it difficult to identify design targets for adaptation. Some basic principles for successful adaptation have been proposed. For example, to be successful, adaptations must be consistent with economic development, be environmentally and socially sustainable over time, and be equitable. 43 In cities where the institutional architecture for natural disaster risk reduction is in place, this is a strong base for adapting to climate change. 44 Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in cities requires immediate and aggressive action alongside adaptation work. There is great scope for future work in enabling mitigation through improved urban design. One direction to begin research and development might be in those areas where mitigation also offers a financial opportunity. Examples include improved building materials and energy efficiency to reduce costs; transport demand management to reduce congestion and the health impacts of transport; and the promotion of renewable or alternative energy generation, such as methane recuperation from landfills for use in local energy generation schemes. 45 Many local authorities already play leadership roles by reviewing purchasing and energy conservation policy. The Cities for Climate Protection Campaign, coordinated by ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability, has enlisted over 650 cities worldwide, each of which has demonstrated willingness to integrate climate mitigation within its decision-making processes. 46 STRENGTHENING EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS There is always scope for greater investment and innovation in the technical aspects of early warning systems, and there remain many cities exposed to hazard without an early warning system. The greatest challenge is to link existing technical capacity with people-centred approaches which ensure that early warnings are communicated and acted on in a timely manner. As indicated in Box IV.1, failure to communicate and provide effective ways for people to prepare for disaster was evidenced during Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans (US) in 2005, when a mixture of alienation from authority and a lack of resources contributed to the high numbers of people who were neither evacuated nor adequately prepared for the event. 47 Integrating ‘top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ approaches Connecting technical expertise to people at risk requires that early warning systems are built from the bottom up (sensitive to the contexts in which they will be useful), as well as from the top down (being accurate and effective with their use of information). The fusion of top-down scientific and bottom-up people-centred approaches can maximize the trust that those at risk place in the system. Not only the message but also the messenger needs to be trusted for people to take action. An important challenge in improving the outputs of early warning systems is to bring the right team of stakeholders together – politicians, hazard experts, disaster managers, the media and community members all have a role to play. To help build trust in Jamaica, mayors chair local Disaster Committees, thereby adding legitimacy to any warnings that might be issued from hazard technicians. There is also a policy of avoiding the ‘blame game’. It is accepted that early warning is not an exact science and that wrong decisions may be made. A professional approach to analysing why wrong decisions have been made, rather than a recriminatory approach, helps to reduce pressure on decision-makers. 48 The challenge of cities Environmental change associated with urban expansion into new hazard zones, or with the local consequences of global environmental change, coupled with social and demographic change in cities, generates uncertainty for early warning. New hazards and vulnerabilities may emerge, generating risk that is unrecognized until disaster strikes. This was partly the case in the European heat wave of 2003. Urban settlements offer opportunities as well as challenges for early warning. The density of settlement and strength of social relations in cities indicate that messages of early warning and preparedness will diffuse quickly. This observation is a little more difficult to maintain in cities that are home to diverse migrant communities, or where social class and demographic factors can cause some to be isolated from mainstream society. As noted in Chapter 7, it was the isolated elderly who were most vulnerable to heat shock in Europe and the US. In each of these cases, isolation from mainstream society is a feature of vulnerability that can also lead to exclusion from systems of early warning and advice on preparedness and evacuation. Linguistic barriers, poverty and lifestyle habits mean that access to messages communicated through the mainstream media is limited. While
Mitigating the impacts of disasters 291 Box 12.11 Early warning in a multi-hazard risk environment: Experience from Mexico Mexico is exposed to a wide range of hazards. For example, Mexico City is at risk from earthquakes, volcanoes and floods, while settlements in the south, west and east of the country may also be exposed to hurricane and storm surge hazards. Recognizing the need to build risk reduction into development, Mexico has produced a national development plan and a National Risks Atlas as a basis for risk and development planning. Funds for emergency management and for disaster prevention are available. Early warning systems for volcanic eruptions and tropical storms are coordinated by national civil protection authorities, while earthquake early warning is coordinated by a civil association. Each system relies upon close collaboration between federal, state and municipal levels for the timely Source: Guevara, 2006 communication of warnings. Warnings are sent using a simple three-tier ‘traffic light’ indicator system for severity of risk. This prevents confusion along the communication chain. Multiple methods of communication are available to help spread warning messages, including telephone and pager messaging, the internet and local civil authorities. The traffic light system indicates severity and also triggers actions to be taken by civil protection agencies, as well as by the population. Lessons learned from the Mexican experience are: • While it is appropriate for different agencies to be involved with early warning and response for particular hazards, it is useful to have a coordinating body (the National Civil Protection Authority in Mexico’s case). • Coordination between state and local levels is essential. • There should be consistency in the ways in which warnings for different hazards are presented. • Different alert levels for different hazards should be clearly defined and should correspond with specific actions to be taken by named authorities and the public. • The traffic light system has proven effective as a communication tool. • Warning systems and responses should be tested. information spread through word of mouth may be effective, little research has been undertaken on the effectiveness of social networks as an information system for early warning and preparedness among marginalized urban populations. Cities often face multiple hazards and present a complex distribution of vulnerabilities and capacities. This presents a challenge for early warning, which has developed as a linear science where single hazard types are monitored. The integration of multiple hazard monitoring systems is a current challenge for urban disaster risk managers. Data requirements are beyond the current capacity of many municipalities. Simple multi-hazard risk assessments presented in GIS are perhaps a first step; but investment in monitoring equipment and communication systems that can reach the most vulnerable are proving more difficult to achieve. Box 12.11 presents a reflection on the status of Mexico’s early warning systems, which have to cope with a multi-hazard environment. Knowledge for action Experience shows that, following a warning, in order for action to be effective, knowledge on what preparedness actions to take is needed by people at risk and emergency services. This section discusses the potential for developing two strategies for building capacity: public education and participatory mapping. Knowledge of hazards and resources is essential for successful evacuation. Box 12.12 recounts experiences from the evacuation system put into operation for Hurricane Rita during 2005, which made landfall on the Texas–Louisiana border on the Gulf Coast of the US. This was the fourth most intensive Atlantic hurricane recorded and caused US$10 billion in damages and 120 deaths. This case study underlines the importance for advance preparation to enable the best actions to follow from scientific information and early warnings. Public information campaigns can seek to target the general population and have dedicated strategies for reaching less accessible social groups – for example, by presenting material in multiple languages. Successful public information campaigns also often include working with key community groups to disseminate messages, and to build, in advance, the cooperative relationships that are the bedrock of an effective disaster response. Key groups include schools, businesses, community groups, fire and police departments, local governments and the media. The media can be very helpful in educating the public on disaster preparedness and recovery programmes after disaster strikes. However, disaster managers frequently complain that the media distorts information, often sensationalizing warnings or turning disasters into a spectacle. Forging links with local and national media and individual journalists and reporters is time consuming, but is valuable in fostering more responsible media coverage of disasters. Innovative media strategies include the use of radio soap opera (Radionovelas) to promote hurricane preparedness, the creation and broadcasting, by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and the European Union (EU), of calypso-style songs on the subject of disaster preparedness in Central America, and a weekly 15-minute radio programme on humanitarian concerns from Nepal Red Cross. 49 Some of the most successful innovations, such as Radionovelas, combine media messages with hands-on workshops or self-led exercises. The Radionovelas initiative has, to date, been delivered in Central America with 20-minute programmes being delivered each day over a month during the hurricane season. 50 Many aspects of participatory risk mapping have been discussed already both in Chapter 8 and earlier in this chapter; but an additional benefit of this tool is that local actors are able to share information with one another and external actors to help identify where vulnerable people, such as the frail or isolated elderly, live. If evacuation becomes necessary, this data is useful for planning and The integration of multiple hazard monitoring systems is a current challenge for urban disaster risk managers
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ENHANCING URBAN SAFETY AND SECURITY
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INTRODUCTION Enhancing Urban Safety
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The preparation of
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x Enhancing Urban Safety and Securi
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xviii Enhancing Urban Safety and Se
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LIST OF FIGURES, BOXES AND TABLES F
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4 Understanding Urban Safety and Se
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1 CHAPTER CURRENT THREATS TO URBAN
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Current threats to urban safety and
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2 CHAPTER VULNERABILITY, RISK AND R
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29 simply ‘give up’ in the face
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46 Urban crime and violence Box II.
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48 Urban crime and violence it has
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50 Urban crime and violence Formal
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52 Urban crime and violence Contact
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54 Urban crime and violence Per 100
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56 Urban crime and violence Burglar
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58 Urban crime and violence Percent
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60 Urban crime and violence Figure
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62 Urban crime and violence Table 3
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64 Urban crime and violence Youth g
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68 Urban crime and violence Type of
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76 Urban crime and violence Abused
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78 Urban crime and violence General
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82 Urban crime and violence porate
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4 CHAPTER URBAN CRIME AND VIOLENCE:
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86 Urban crime and violence UN-Habi
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88 Urban crime and violence Box 4.2
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90 Urban crime and violence Box 4.4
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98 Urban crime and violence Availab
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100 Urban crime and violence Box 4.
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102 Urban crime and violence In som
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112 Security of tenure Box III.1 Se
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5 CHAPTER SECURITY OF TENURE: CONDI
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116 Security of tenure Table 5.1 A
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118 Security of tenure Fully legal
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120 Security of tenure Box 5.4 Secu
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122 Security of tenure Urban tenure
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124 Security of tenure At least 2 m
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126 Security of tenure Market-based
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128 Security of tenure Box 5.11 Urb
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130 Security of tenure Operation Mu
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132 Security of tenure Control of l
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134 Security of tenure Box 5.18 Sec
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136 Security of tenure NOTES 1 Habi
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138 Security of tenure Box 6.1 The
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140 Security of tenure It would be
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142 Security of tenure Box 6.7 Land
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144 Security of tenure Box 6.10 Wha
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146 Security of tenure Box 6.12 Evi
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148 Security of tenure Box 6.15 Con
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150 Security of tenure Box 6.18 Vio
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152 Security of tenure The
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154 Security of tenure Box 6.24 Lan
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156 Security of tenure The state is
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158 Security of tenure Housing righ
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Over the last three decades, natura
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Introduction 165 One of the key tre
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7 CHAPTER DISASTER RISK: CONDITIONS
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Disaster risk: Conditions, trends a
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220 Natural and human-made disaster
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236 Towards safer and more secure c
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238 Towards safer and more secure c
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INDEX ACHR (Asian Coalition for Hou
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Index 435 security of tenure 134 co
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Index 437 domestic abuse see intima
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Index 439 hazard management 169 haz
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Index 441 Kosovo, security of tenur
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Index 443 participation 38, 296-299
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Index 445 individual 34-35 municipa
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Index 447 gun ownership 78 Homeless
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