Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 393
during these years was comparatively low, and this was one method to employ NASA engineers
in meeting the national need of developing more fuel-efficient energy systems as a
result of the OPEC oil crises. It was also an example of one of the first direct links of NASA
programs to civilian economic issues.
Other references to national economic growth policies began to become apparent in
official space directives. In the Reagan administration’s 1988 presidential directive on
space policy, an entire section is devoted to commercial space sector guidelines, which
outlined a number of government actions aimed directly at stimulating private-sector
activity in space. [III-12] This was followed by the Bush administration’s 1991 U.S.
Commercial Space Policy Guidelines, which explicitly recognized the fast-growing commercial
space sector and expanded government initiatives to encourage the space sector’s
growth. [III-13]
Finally, the most comprehensive statement of national commercial space policy is
found in the Clinton administration’s 1996 presidential space directive, which propels
space activities directly into the mainstream of national economic policy and international
competitiveness issues. [III-14] Two of the five goals listed in the introduction to this
policy specifically mention both economic competitiveness and the stimulation of nonfederal
investment in space. The document also includes a list of guidelines aimed at
enhancing commercial space. The significance of this document is the extent of coverage
of commercial issues surrounding space activities. It is indicative of the maturity of the
satellite communications industry coupled with the many industry proposals to develop
commercial space systems. Prior presidential directives on space issues have evolved from
barely addressing any commercial issues to those of the late 1980s and early 1990s, which
initiated government studies and actions aimed at stimulating an emerging potential for
the industrial use of space.
Economic forecasts have long played a part in NASA plans for commercial space.
Some of the earliest were the projections of the demand for communications satellites,
which was the major driver of the demand for expendable launch vehicles (and Space
Shuttle flights before the Challenger accident). NASA was the owner and operator of these
vehicles before the push to transfer expendable launch vehicles to the private sector, and
the agency needed such forecasts for planning and budgeting purposes. In addition, the
Space Shuttle was designed to launch commercial and industrial payloads as well as to perform
NASA missions in space. Therefore, forecasts of potential users of the Space Shuttle
vehicle provided information to NASA management that was important for developing a
mission model, manifest, and pricing algorithm.
An example of the use of projections was the 1983 forecast of a $60 billion commercial
space market fifteen years hence (2000) performed by the Center for Space Policy.
This projection received a large amount of publicity and helped set the stage for the political
and industrial support of the International Space Station. 19 However, any projection
of economic markets many years in the future is so prone to error that economists and
industry planners discount any such projections as premature and wishful thinking. In
fact, the Center for Space Policy forecast was revised in 1984 with more industrial and economic
detail, and it was presented as a range of possible markets in contrast to their controversial
prior forecast. [III-15] Nevertheless, as with the earlier macroeconomic benefit
studies, these and other projections of vast new markets had significant political impact
and were influential in both stimulating new government initiatives in industrial space
activities and in providing an underlying rationale for new big space programs such as the
International Space Station.
19. New York Times, June 24, 1988, Section 3, p. 1.