Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

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ing in space to guarantee a moderate level of future activity. [259] This means that whatever
unexpected treasures are yet to be found have some reasonable probability of being discovered
even in a pessimistic context. We should add that the spirit and need of scientific
inquiry, and the spirit and need for exploration, will remain as permanent forces which create
varying pressures for some kind of activity almost everywhere—and in most of our scenarios
these needs and pressures increase—if not in the United States then elsewhere.
B. Earth-Centered Perspective
SPACE AS AN INVESTMENT IN ECONOMIC GROWTH
In Chapter II we try to visualize the coming economic role of space developments in
an earth-centered perspective. Our view lies between that of the more extreme space
enthusiasts who feel that society’s problems on earth are basically intractable and should
not be allowed to hinder the future of space, and those who conceive of the space potential
as very limited, and often as an activity to enthrall the young or the technostructure—
and thus often a place for expensive, sterile, dangerous or foolish exploits.
We first offer evidence that the basic physical problems relating to the world’s future
needs can, in principle, be solved without recourse to outer space, that the earth has more
than enough resources to supply an adequate standard of living for all. On the other hand
it seems quite clear that cis-lunar space and possibly the rest of the solar system could turn
out to be extraordinarily important in an economic and technological sense. This outcome
appears to follow from just the current reasonably projected potential in space—
that is, without having to conjure up unforeseeable great breakthroughs. Of course it also
seems to be reasonable [260] to expect that future space development will yield some
equivalents of Middle East oil or Klondike gold—that is, vast treasures which have not yet
been dreamed of. Thus, it is almost certain that space exploration will lead to great benefits,
and possibly to an extraordinary economic and technological impact.
In our basic Surprise-Free Earth-Centered Scenario we concluded that good longterm
prospects existed for technological solutions to current concerns about the adequacy
of the world’s physical resources—although social and political problems could—and
probably will—create many difficulties in applying such solutions. When potential space
developments are added to the above scenario the outlook for the required solutions is
further brightened. That is, over time space technology and spinoffs from it will certainly
contribute to these solutions—perhaps enormously. With our necessarily poor vision into
the future we can still list a few general ways in which space activities are likely to contribute.
In each category below we include spinoffs and serendipities, since they are often
the most productive, although intrinsically obscure, avenues:
Energy:
1) Space-based electric power stations
2) LANDSAT information for oil and gas exploration
3) Spinoffs and serendipities
Materials:
1) Superior materials from unique processing capabilities in space industries
2) Lunar and asteroidal sources of minerals
3) LANDSAT assistance in mineral exploration on earth
4) Spinoffs and serendipities
Food & Water:
1) Improving weather forecasts for days, weeks, months, and possibly over
longer intervals
2) LANDSAT information on crops, disease, insects, water, etc.
3) Spinoffs and serendipities