Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

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The earth station market includes transmitting and receiving antennas for satellite
services, tracking and control facilities, and other ground equipment used with satellites.
CSP expects that the principal sources of revenues will be sales of fixed and broadcast service
earth station equipment. Revenues for this market are dominated by FSS services,
although DBS and MSS equipment are expected to generate large revenues as well.
Revenue totals are $3.7 billion in the low scenario, and $8.6 billion in the high scenario.
[7] The insurance industry is a key element in the development of commercial space
activity. Major forms of insurance to be offered include launch, operational lifetime, and
liability. New types of insurance will need to be developed to support LEO operations for
MPS and servicing. Industry revenues will depend directly on the level of development of
other commercial space activities. Total insurance revenues are forecast at $.33 billion in
the low scenario, and $1.64 billion in the high scenario.
Total revenues for the ground based support services are $4.1 billion in the low scenario
and $10.4 billion in the high scenario.
H. SUMMARY
SPACE AS AN INVESTMENT IN ECONOMIC GROWTH
Table I-1 summarizes the revenue projections forecast in this report. Under the conservative
assumptions used to generate the low scenarios, revenues in the year 2000 should
be $16.8 billion; using the more optimistic conditions of the high scenario, revenues rise
to $51.3 billion. As noted elsewhere in this report, the key determinants affecting the actual
outcome are the continued commitment to developing the commercial space infrastructure,
and the development of an MPS R&D base which will allow broad-scale
industrial activity.
Table I-1
Commercial Space Revenues in the Year 2000
Low High
Activity Scenario Scenario
Communications $8.8B $15.3B
MPS 2.6B 17.9B
Remote Sensing 5B 2.5B
On-Orbit Services 6B 2.8B
Space Transportation 2B 2.4B
Ground Based Services 4.1B 10.4B
Total Revenues $1.6.8B $51.3B . . .
[9] B. COMPARISON WITH EARLIER STUDIES
The market projections presented in this study are a revision of an earlier internal
study conducted by CSP in January, 1984. The current figures (see below) are approximately
[10] twenty percent lower than those presented a year ago. Two factors are responsible
for the change. First, the earlier study assumed that the space station would be on
orbit and functional in 1992, as predicated in NASA’s original timeline. However, due to
a slowdown in funding in the FY 1985 and FY 1986 budgets, the target date for space station
has slipped until 1993. Reviewing historical evidence with the Shuttle program, it is
not unreasonable to expect that the station will be delayed a year longer (i.e. 1994). This
delay has a negative impact because of the critical role the space station will have on the