Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

424
SPACE AS AN INVESTMENT IN ECONOMIC GROWTH
Table 6
Change in Selected Variables With an Increase in NASA R&D Spending of $1 Billion
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
Gross National Product, Billions of 1958 Dollars
Base 788.1 834.0 869.6 859.8 868.5 922.4 977.7 1012.2 1059.6 1090.8
NASA 790.2 836.5 871.7 862.1 871.7 928.6 988.0 1035.0 1077.4 1114.1
Change 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.3 3.2 6.2 10.3 13.8 17.8 23.3
% Change .3 .3 .2 .3 .4 .7 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.1
Consumer Price Index, 1967 = 100.0
Base 161.1 173.9 188.4 204.9 219.4 232.0 244.2 257.0 270.9 286.5
NASA 161.0 173.8 188.4 204.7 219.0 231.0 242.2 254.0 266.9 280.7
Change -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.8
% Change 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.5 -2.0
Rate of Inflation, %
Base 9.1 7.9 8.3 8.7 7.1 5.8 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.8
NASA 9.1 7.9 8.3 8.6 7.0 5.5 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.3
Change 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5
Unemployment Rate, %
Base 9.0 8.2 7.4 8.6 9.9 9.2 8.0 7.1 6.5 6.0
NASA 8.9 8.0 7.3 8.5 9.8 9.1 7.7 6.8 6.1 5.6
Change -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4
Employees on Payrolls, Millions
Base 76.9 79.9 82.8 83.3 83.2 85.3 88.1 90.5 92.5 94.3
NASA 77.0 80.0 82.9 83.4 83.3 85.5 88.4 90.9 93.1 95.1
Change 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8
% Change 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8
Index of Industrial Production, Manufacturing Sector, 1967 = 100.0
Base 109.1 120.2 129.6 125.3 122.4 132.6 145.3 154.6 162.2 168.6
NASA 109.9 121.2 130.5 126.3 123.5 134.3 148.1 158.1 166.5 174.0
Change 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.7 2.8 3.5 4.3 5.4
% Change 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2
Index of Labor Productivity, 1967 = 100.0
Base 110.2 112.1 113.3 112.5 115.2 120.1 123.9 126.9 129.9 132.0
NASA 110.3 112.2 113.4 112.7 115.5 120.8 125.1 128.6 132.0 134.7
Change 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.7
% Change 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0
Change in Labor Productivity, %
Base -0.4 1.7 1.1 -0.7 2.4 4.3 3.2 2.4 2.4 1.6
NASA -0.3 1.7 1.1 -0.6 2.7 4.6 3.6 2.7 2.7 2.0
Change 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4
Base = baseline projection with current estimates of NASA R&D spending for next decade.
NASA = an increase of $1 billion in 1958 dollars in NASA R&D spending.
Change = NASA - Base
% Change = NASA - Base Since the unemployment rate is already given in percentage terms,
Base we do not calculate this item for unemployment.
sector grows at a rate of 2.75% during the 1980–1984 period, compared to an average
annual rise of 2.40% with no increase in spending. By 1984 the level of labor productivity
is 2.0% higher than the baseline projection.
Further details and comparisons are given in Table 6 for a $1 billion increase in NASA
R&D spending. We also calculated alternative runs for $0.5 and $0.1 billion and found
that the results were approximately linear for other levels of spending change of equal or
smaller magnitude. Similarly a decrease in NASA R&D spending of $1 billion would have
reverse effects of the same magnitude on economic activity.