Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

Tended Facilities (MTFs) each offer specific technical advantages, depending upon the
complexity of the process. Using the MPS market scenarios, requirements for on-orbit
workspace were derived. Under the low scenario, five free flying platforms and two MTFs
satisfy commercial demand; under the high scenario, these numbers climb to nineteen
free flyers and twelve MTFs. The annual revenues earned by these facilities should be
$.6–2.5 billion per year.
Satellite servicing revenues are comprised of commercial OMV [Orbital Maneuvering
Vehicle] servicings of free flyers (MTFs must be serviced by the Shuttle; these revenues are
included under the section on space transportation). Under the low scenario, no commercial
OMV operations are predicted; hence there are no commercial revenues. Under the
high scenario, seventy annual servicing missions generate revenues of almost $.3 billion.
F. SPACE TRANSPORTATION
Space transportation systems (STS) are required to support all space activities:
launching payloads into their operational orbits, retrieving payloads and returning them
to Earth, and performance of experiments and manufacturing activities on orbit. For the
remainder of the century, the majority of space transportation requirements will focus on
three orbital destinations: Low Earth Orbit (LEO—Shuttle “parking orbit”), geostationary
orbit (GEO), and LEO polar orbits.
The space transportation systems available in the Western world to reach these orbits
are the U.S. Space Shuttle, Expendable Launch Vehicles (ELVs—which include Europe’s
Ariane launch vehicle) and upper stages for use in conjunction with the Shuttle and ELVs.
[6] In the low scenario, CSP assumes that the STS remains a government-owned and managed
system, and hence no revenues accrue to commercial entities. Total demand of
12.8 STS equivalent launches in the year 2000 provides no “overflow” demand for the ELV
industry and thus there is no inclusion of commercial ELV revenues. Upper stages are the
only source of commercial revenues in the low scenario. Total revenues are expected to
top $.2 billion.
The high scenario assumes a fleet of five Shuttle orbiters (each operating at six
flights annually), with two operated by commercial entities to service man-tended facilities
in LEO. The cost of an orbiter to the operator is a straight--line depreciation of the
$1.7B purchase cost (in $1982) over 100 flights. An average of capital costs over remaining
flights plus a gross margin of 30 percent brings the launch price to $76.2M. The strong
demand for LEO transportation services generated by the MPS industry (especially for
MTFs) is expected to use all of the available STS capacity; a strong market exists for ELVs
to take up the overload. Under the high scenario, commercial orbiter revenues and ELV
revenues reach over $1 billion each, and commercial upper stage revenues are projected
at almost $300 million.
G. GROUND BASED SUPPORT SERVICES
EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 477
Space operations require support services that are located on earth. The major services
include: payload processing, earth station equipment manufacture, and space insurance.
Each of these could become a significant market in its own right by the year 2000.
Payload processing must be performed on all commercial payloads prior to launch.
Payloads include communications satellites, MPS free-flyers and resupply modules, and
commercial OMVs and MTFs. By the year 2000, it is assumed that all commercial payloads
will be processed by a commercial firm(s). The market for these services was calculated by
evaluating the processing requirements for payloads generated in Chapters III–VI of the
report. Under the low scenario, these revenues total $.03 billion; in our high scenario, the
revenues rise to $.11 billion.