Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

B. SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS
Satellite communications is the oldest and most mature commercial space industry.
The three basic types of satellite services that have commercial applications are known as
“fixed satellite service” (FSS), “broadcast satellite service” (BSS) and “mobile satellite service”
(MSS). Total revenues projected for this industry are $8.8 billion under CSP’s low
market scenario, and $15.3 billion under the high scenario.
FSS provides a common carrier link for point-to-point and point-to-multipoint transmission.
The primary FSS markets are the transmission of voice, video and data. The last
two markets, addressing corporate needs for the development of private networks, are
especially expected to grow to a $5.0–6.8 billion level by the turn of the century.
Direct broadcast satellite (DBS) service has had a spotty record in the U.S.
Nevertheless, long term market prospects look tremendous for the industry (large upfront
capital requirements, and the inability of DBS firms to secure affordable programming
have been the major obstacles to date). By the 1990s, DBS services should be
available; by the year 2000, annual revenues could be $2.6–6.6 billion.
Mobile satellite communications services will take advantage of the large footprint of
a satellite to make thin-route mobile communications economically feasible. The market
consists of two major segments: limited alphanumeric message services and full voice and
data transmission. Annual revenues are projected to rise to $.8–1.5 billion by the year
2000.
CSP anticipates a domestic demand for approximately five new spacecraft per year by
2000. FSS satellites will comprise the largest component of market demand for spacecraft.
[3] C. MATERIALS PROCESSING IN SPACE
EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 475
Commercial materials processing in space (MPS) will allow U.S. companies to take
advantage of the properties of the space environment. There will be two general types of
MPS activity: basic materials research, and the development and production of new products
or processes that are possible only in space. This study includes only those revenues
accruing from the second activity.
Basic economics limits severely the number of candidates for space processing to
those which can justify high production costs, which include an estimated transportation
cost of $10,000 per pound. In the next fifteen years, only three kinds of materials are likely
to meet this threshold value while also generating sufficient demand to justify production.
These materials include pharmaceuticals, semiconductor crystals, and halide optical
fibers.
There will be significant research in numerous other materials fields, notably organic
crystals, ceramics, and alloys. The knowledge gained from space research will be applied
to terrestrial production techniques, or demand for products in these fields will be so limited
that individual markets will be small (under $50 million). It must be noted that the
development of a strong knowledge base is essential for the continued growth of commercial
MPS revenues in the long term; current projections based on what is now known
will likely prove conservative as the rate and quality of space-based materials research
improves.
A key driver in the development of MPS markets will be the availability of appropriate
research facilities on orbit. Present Shuttle facilities in the mid-deck and the payload bay
are inadequate, especially for tasks requiring a high level of human interaction. The space
station will alleviate this situation, but will be unavailable to researchers before 1995.
MPS is expected to generate revenues of $2.6 billion to $17.9 billion in the year 2000,
based on 6 to 30 products. Most of these revenues will come from pharmaceutical products
($2.0 billion to $14. 9 billion); much of the rest will come from gallium arsenide