Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

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SPACE AS AN INVESTMENT IN ECONOMIC GROWTH
chases of commercially developed space hardware and products are included (for example,
government purchases of commercial upper stages such as the PAM-D and the TOS). High
and low scenarios have been generated for each industry. Under the low scenario, extremely
conservative assumptions have been used in defining the product or service and its market.
Under the high scenarios, more optimistic assumptions have been used.
The satellite communications, MPS and remote sensing markets can be considered
“Applications Markets,” in that some aspect of space is critical to the provision of service.
Satellite communications and remote sensing profit from the vantage point afforded by
space; MPS utilizes other physical attributes of space (most notably microgravity) to produce
materials which cannot be made on Earth. Space transportation, on-orbit services,
and ground support, on the [13] other hand, can be considered “Infrastructure Markets.”
They are not end products in themselves, but are necessary for the provision of other
products.
It immediately becomes clear that the markets are inextricably linked. The demand
for the applications markets is generated “externally” by individuals, companies, governments,
and other organizations here on Earth. This demand is clearly influenced by the
functional alternatives that can be produced on Earth. For example, the demand for satellite
communications is dependent upon the economics and capabilities of terrestrial communications
media. The demand for space infrastructure is a function of this applications
demand.
Working in the opposite direction, the supply (and cost) of space infrastructure products
and services is the dominant factor in determining which applications products and
services can be produced economically (i.e. at a cost that the market will support, and
which will earn the firm a minimum level of profit). In order to develop overall consistency
within this report, the high and low scenarios for the applications markets are used
in the baselines for determining the infrastructure markets.
Document III-16
Document title: William M. Brown and Herman Kahn, “Long-Term Prospects for
Developments in Space (A Scenario Approach),” Hudson Institute, Inc., Croton-on-
Hudson, New York, Contract NASW-2924, October 30, 1977, pp. 257–274.
Source: NASA Historical Reference Collection, NASA History Office, NASA
Headquarters, Washington, D.C.
This study was very unusual for NASA. It developed several scenarios detailing possible long-term
trends in space R&D, technology, defense, and environmental and economic development. These scenarios
included pessimistic and optimistic growth and opportunities in space. Space is seen as a
resource and a place for economic enterprise. The study did not detail economic benefits, but did make
economic issues central to long-term space financing, exploration, and development. Few other studies
of the mid-1970s were as far reaching as this one in vision.